Goldman Sachs analysts predicted that the ruble will be dramatically enhanced due to the growing price of oil. According to experts, the course of a year could be 27.6 rubles to the dollar
Investment bank Goldman Sachs raised the forecast rate of the ruble against the dollar in the near future. According to experts, by the beginning of autumn, a unit of American currency, the ruble will be 30.6, while analysts have previously thought that the dollar will cost two rubles more expensive.
Even more radically, experts have revised the forecast for the dollar in six months and one year. How to think in Goldman Sachs, to the beginning of winter, the dollar should cost 28.4 rubles, and by early spring of 2010 - 27.6 rubles, although they previously predicted 32 rub. / $.
Bank experts have revised their own forecasts for the ruble Kuru with the new, higher value crude oil forecast. As previously reported, the specialists of the bank increased the forecast average price of WTI crude oil grades in 2009 to 25% - to $ 63 per barrel in 2010 - up to $ 90 a barrel.
Projections forecast, but the Russian authorities have already made it clear that it is not going to prevent sharp ruble. This, for example, recently told the head of the Bank of Russia Sergei Ignatiev. According to him, the ruble for 2 rubles to the dollar may cause concern to the Central Bank, as the strengthening natsvalyuty worsens the conditions for the competitiveness of Russian producers, but also raises the likelihood of a possible increased capital outflows in the later, with weakening of the ruble. "If the ruble falls below 30 (rubles per dollar), it causes our concern," - said S. Ignatiev.
The same is said Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who, incidentally, believes that in the coming years, oil may be a year on average slightly above $ 50 a barrel. So that the financial authorities is unlikely to tolerate such a strong ruble, as the forecasts Goldman Sachs.
Ministry of Economic Development, which is slightly more optimistic with respect to the price of oil in 2010, assuming that the barrel will cost about $ 60, believes that next year the ruble to the dollar will be about 34 rubles. / $. Thus government has so far rejected the possibility of a sharp strengthening of the ruble, which Russia exports to strut.
A number of analysts of investment banks also did not hesitate to disagree with my colleagues from Goldman Sachs. Many predict the next ruble weakening. For example, ING Bank expects the ruble to fall 15-20% by the end of the year. Alfa Bank predicts that the dollar will cost about 37.4 rubles to the same time. Citi expects the average rate of the ruble against the dollar in 2009 will be 33.4 rubles. / $, But at the end of the year he will be at 33.1 rubles. / $. Barclays Capital predicts that the exchange rate within the next few months will remain stable, but at the end of the year the course may still be reduced by 10-15%.
Interfax
Investment bank Goldman Sachs raised the forecast rate of the ruble against the dollar in the near future. According to experts, by the beginning of autumn, a unit of American currency, the ruble will be 30.6, while analysts have previously thought that the dollar will cost two rubles more expensive.
Even more radically, experts have revised the forecast for the dollar in six months and one year. How to think in Goldman Sachs, to the beginning of winter, the dollar should cost 28.4 rubles, and by early spring of 2010 - 27.6 rubles, although they previously predicted 32 rub. / $.
Bank experts have revised their own forecasts for the ruble Kuru with the new, higher value crude oil forecast. As previously reported, the specialists of the bank increased the forecast average price of WTI crude oil grades in 2009 to 25% - to $ 63 per barrel in 2010 - up to $ 90 a barrel.
Projections forecast, but the Russian authorities have already made it clear that it is not going to prevent sharp ruble. This, for example, recently told the head of the Bank of Russia Sergei Ignatiev. According to him, the ruble for 2 rubles to the dollar may cause concern to the Central Bank, as the strengthening natsvalyuty worsens the conditions for the competitiveness of Russian producers, but also raises the likelihood of a possible increased capital outflows in the later, with weakening of the ruble. "If the ruble falls below 30 (rubles per dollar), it causes our concern," - said S. Ignatiev.
The same is said Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who, incidentally, believes that in the coming years, oil may be a year on average slightly above $ 50 a barrel. So that the financial authorities is unlikely to tolerate such a strong ruble, as the forecasts Goldman Sachs.
Ministry of Economic Development, which is slightly more optimistic with respect to the price of oil in 2010, assuming that the barrel will cost about $ 60, believes that next year the ruble to the dollar will be about 34 rubles. / $. Thus government has so far rejected the possibility of a sharp strengthening of the ruble, which Russia exports to strut.
A number of analysts of investment banks also did not hesitate to disagree with my colleagues from Goldman Sachs. Many predict the next ruble weakening. For example, ING Bank expects the ruble to fall 15-20% by the end of the year. Alfa Bank predicts that the dollar will cost about 37.4 rubles to the same time. Citi expects the average rate of the ruble against the dollar in 2009 will be 33.4 rubles. / $, But at the end of the year he will be at 33.1 rubles. / $. Barclays Capital predicts that the exchange rate within the next few months will remain stable, but at the end of the year the course may still be reduced by 10-15%.
Interfax
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