Interviews with the executive director Kalita-Finance

Interviews with the executive director Kalita-Finance


- Your opinion on how the case dealing with the development in the Forex market in Russia?

- On the part of the situation can be characterized as the formation, with one of the main issues - the legal vacuum. The result - jazz versions of the business development, frequent maintenance and development in the offshore areas of bukmekerstva. A special way - "Kalita Finance, where the contractual framework is built on the basis of the tax code.
On the part of clients - this is, first, distrust, and secondly, the ignorance of the subject. But in the west Forex - the same tool investment, as well as others. One:

- How do you see in the future prospects for the overall development of the situation?

- Russia is moving towards integration into the world community, so sooner or later the financial markets, including foreign exchange, there will be a boom. How quickly that happens depends on many factors such as economic development and legislation, the growth of human well-being: The broker / dealer of foreign exchange market would survive a few of the current representatives - those who show greater flexibility, efficiency, cleanliness, creativity, etc.

- Which companies are the most powerful players today? How do you feel about your competitors?

- First, those companies that have, first, to have a solid "experience" of work in this market and unassailable, and secondly, the competitive conditions. And those very few. With regard to competition, the direct competitor to us very little. KB began work on the Forex with private individuals (draft www.kf-forex.ru) over a year ago, choosing a niche ruble Forex as the most ambitious and covered. We are studying this new direction for them, without risking serious money, with the most favorable terms. In general, however, to compete in our attitude, I believe, the most normal - healthy competition is always important for the clients, brokers and dealers. For companies, it does not "stagnate" zakostenevat. We are not afraid of competition, I would even say that at this stage, we will create it, rather than fighting it.

- Is there a need for the establishment and development of resources such as ForexTimes?

- Absolutely. Such resources as ForexTimes, are a very important element for the development of precisely this healthy competition and make an invaluable contribution to the development of market information services in general. Many supposedly independent resources on the subject involved a "protalkivaniem" of certain companies, creating an artificial boom around some, and frankly umalchivaya or other polivaya mud. What I personally like to ForexTimes - is the largest of the known resources me equidistance to all broker-dealers Forex, with the most informative. I hope this trend will continue in the future.

- What are the plans "Kalita-Finance for the future?

They are really great. Indeed, the draft www.kf-forex.ru - only one of the activities of a group of companies "Kalita-Finance." But even there zadumok very much. Here, and the stock and money markets, the project software for trading and dealing www.dealingoffice.ru. Incidentally, the latter now in the special control - to the anniversary of "Kalita-Finance (04 October 1999), we have prepared an updated trading terminal iTrader, who introduced this week, along with other gifts to our clients. Of course, this is a small short-term problem, in general, much larger projects. Work in full swing, has recently moved to more spacious office - the state is growing, a lot of problems. "Kalita-Finance is determined to stay on the market long and seriously.

Mikhail Novikov (October 2003)
Especially for ForexTimes.RU

interview with Renat Fathullinnym

An interview with Renat Fathullinnym, president of the company MetaQuotes Software Corp.


What does your company?

Main area - this is software development. We write of information and trading systems for brokerage services, using financial instruments Forex, CFD and Futures. Having started its development in 1999, has created a three-generation trading platforms: FX Charts, MetaQuotes and MetaTrader.

Quite a number, but what do they differ?

Simply put, the quality, capacity and performance. FX Charts supported work with Forex. MetaQuotes - Forex and CFD, and MetaTrader `e also added, and futures. We are specifically talking about different generations of platforms, as well as at each stage were significant qualitative changes. For example, in MetaQuotes was added to its own programming language (MetaQuotes Language) programming strategies, MetaTrader radically improved performance of the server, allowing simultaneous support of three to four thousand users are online on the same server. And it is not talking about a qualitative change in client terminal, which is closely related to its ability to universally analytical programs such as the Omega TradeStation and MetaStock. In addition, we are actively developing area of mobile trading using a PDA that is running Palm OS and Win CE (Pocket PC).

Mobile Trading - it's quite a young line. How do you assess his prospects?

I must confess that mobile trading is today rather "forward-looking" rather than widespread. We have developed a variety of information and trading terminals for Palm OS and Win CE (Pocket PC), but until the demand is very small.

Perhaps because of the fact that you sell the license for mobile terminals, rather than distribute them free as a program on Windows?

Perhaps, but we are - a commercial company, which spends more money on software development. Currently we offer potestirovat terminal MetaTrader for Palm and MetaTrader CE during the week and then decide - you are a trader or not? In addition, the cost of a license is very small - only forty-five dollars. It should also be noted that brokerage companies often provide users, opening a real account of license to the terminals for Pocket PC for free.

This pleases. And how many brokers are using your system?

Already dozen companies around the world: Russia, U.S., Europe, China, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and other countries.

Impressive, but how you do it? There are secrets?

No secrets. We work in liaison with brokerage companies and traders who supply us with their wishes. With offices in Cyprus, we have successfully promotes development abroad. Although the development department is located in Kazan, it does not prevent us to serve our customers worldwide.

Let us go back to your development. You anonsiruete new development - MetaTrader 4. Tell us about it.

We're constantly working to introduce the new requirements of our users and customers (brokerage firms). We are now working on a new version of MetaTrader 4, which will be the following innovations:
- Support multibalansovyh systems (deposits in different currencies);
- A server;
- Support for local financial markets with their own databases and calculated rates (Europe, Japan, Australia, Singapore, etc.);
- Sub-advanced;
- Increased number of reports;
- New data protocols;
- In the client: the updated language MQL 3 (hundred percent compatible with previous version);
- An additional set of indicators;
- More control over sophisticated trading operations of the experts, access to facilities;
- Expanded tehanaliza;
- The story charts;
- Access to the arbitrary schedules of the experts;
- And much more.
Zadumok very much, all the talk can be very long.

Judging from the frequency of release of new versions of the terminal, you do not stand still.

Yes, and it distinguishes us from other companies that are developing trading platforms. In contrast, companies that develop software only for ourselves, we are working immediately on a few dozen brokers who constantly monitor the quality and capacity of systems, allowing us to create a professional and competitive systems.

And how do you assess the situation in the software market in the coming year?

Frankly speaking, the forecast can not be opened or long trading account. Just know - we have not reduced.

Probably, the next step will be to support the Russian market?

I think not. The Russian stock market is very much development. Over the past two or three years, many companies (including banks) have established their terminals to the exchange. But, according to the laws of the market, the winners were few. I do not see any sense in creating yet another system. We have a well-designed line - we offer the best solutions for markets Forex, CFD and Futures!

Mikhail Novikov (November 2003)
Especially for ForexTimes.RU

Interview with Alexander Kononets

Interview with Alexander Kononets, director of the company DealingCity Inc.

- What are the main direction of your company?

The main activities of our company is providing access to the Forex market to private investors and the development of software products, users are professional market participants Forex - traders, brokers and dealers.

- Why did you choose for themselves a niche, not only the client dealing, but the developer Terminal? After all, how much I know, in this niche are enough strong players? How do you plan to survive the tough competition prevailing in the market these services?

Only work in the face of fierce competition may bear fruit. We are professionals in this business.
First Division client dealing in Forex was opened with our help, even in the 97th in size Doninvest.
At that time, the global practice of a client dealing another implies expensive reyterovskih terminal with the cost of rental of a terminal around $ 3500 per month. In Doninveste there were four.
And yet, service was so much in demand, which is enough to pay off and quickly became a profit until the banking crisis of 98-year.
The crisis has served us a great lesson, and pushed us to take a decision on the need to create your own dilingovoy system.
Even then we knew that our own development offers an opportunity to maximize rapid response to customer inquiries, improve the quality of service and thus expand the geography of customers. The client always wants now, and only service of its own development and support can give it to him. For example do not need to go: there were so many requests to create a terminal like "high-customized" under a specific user. Did.
The Second Division of the client dealing in Forex, is already providing Internet services, was launched with the help of the fall of 99-year, together with Software Corporation, known today as the FX EuroClub.
At the dawn of the formation of the Russian Internet dealing, in fact, it was the first time, a revolutionary solution, which subsequently formed a unique niche.
Niche foreksa ruble, in the bookmaker activities.
However there was no relevant professional market participants to bukmekerstvu, however, that we probili first bukmekerskuyu license Forex in Russia, opening up market access to the wider masses. As a result - reducing risks for beginners, a simplified scheme of work in Russia's legal framework. After further development in 2001 was opened by the company DealingCity, in which we implement more integrated solutions.
This is indeed a prerequisite, which pushed us to the choice of this niche. In any case, the experience we have more than enough, and while we are in the business, as we did, and we will do everything we can to meet the needs of quality customer service and to create integrated solutions for the professional market participants.

- Why do not you reduce the spread, leaving him at 4-5 points?

This is not necessary. Real customers, spread within 4 points of suits. They are clearly aware of their level of input and output. And spread to them has no special meaning. As our dealer almost always confirms the quotes, the actual spread in most cases is below the indicative, it is company policy, our customers know and use successfully.

- As to the Commission? You are in fact one of the few who stands out today, its existence. It is difficult to convince the customer probably that pay commission to his broker today is in the order of things, while many operators to desist from this practice, even for small and earn only the sprede.

First, how do we know, for many it still remains. We, too, will soon abandon the practice. You may have the next month we will cancel a commission from the transactions.

- What are your relations with rival companies?

Very good. We fully support the healthy competition for the customer, because it leads to continually improve services, improve their quality, continually introduce new services. With some of the companies we have established friendly personal relations. I hope that soon it comes, and to joint action.

- What projects are you going to introduce in the near future?

In the coming weeks, we plan to introduce a new service. Service for the operational links between the business traders and investors.
Service will be the most transparent and informative. As far as we know, there is no analogues.

- And if the details of what will be the new service?

Service trust will be a supplementary service in Dealing City and provide for the automation and standardization of traders and investors.
Traders wishing to bring their trade for additional funds, using the finished form in Dealing City, published a proposal (an offer) on its willingness to take on their investment / trading account in the administration on certain conditions:
1. The minimum payment (share in the total fund);
2. The term deposit (fixed or on demand, if the term, it indicates the number of calendar days);
3. Commission trader (what percentage of the profits on invested capital investor is required to pay the trader as a commission).
4. Leverage - the maximum allowable level of leverage, which may use a trader in their trade. In fact, means the limit of acceptable risk. Depending on the aggressiveness of investment, from 1:5 to 1:200.
Traders at will provide information on their trading strategy, in particular, they can podgruzit steymenty not only to our system.

- That is, if I understood any trader can create your own unit Investment Fund (PIF)?

It is true, the most transparent PIF from the existing analogue, primarily transparent to investors. The investor gets the opportunity to on-line monitoring of the current state of their investments full control over how their money working in a particular fund. The possibility of a rapid entry into the fund and the rapid withdrawal of their assets from the fund is automated.

- How will the process of accession to the fund and the conclusions of the assets of the Fund?

Investors, looking proposals Traders (managers), chooses its favorable investment preferences fund manager, puts the amount of its contribution, and one click enters into the fund. When entering into a new fund payschika happens percent share of the redistribution of all participants.

- As an investor can withdraw their money from the fund?

In order to withdraw their assets from the fund, the investor sends an application trader. Trader calculates how to change the status of the fund at the time of execution of the application. If the execution of the application for a trader should be to reduce the open position, it produces the appropriate action, then confirms the request for the withdrawal of investor funds.
The process of withdrawal of funds from the fund, similar to the process of writing, is also fully automated.

- What are the guarantees provided Dealing City investor?

Dealing City guarantees to the investor:
- 24 hours a day, on-line information on how to operate his money in the fund.
- Guarantees the performance of traders of their obligations under the terms of the offer.
- In exceptional cases, when Trader has not fulfilled a request for the withdrawal of an investor's share of the Equity Fund within the allocated time for this (24 hours of the filing of this application), to take an independent decision on the execution of such an application.

- When an estimated yield can be expected in light of new services?

We have already begun to implement, it is ready to almost 80% of the plan implementation will begin in a week.

Interview with Baryshevym Dmitry Mikhailovich

Interview with Baryshevym Dmitry Mikhailovich, executive director of the Russian Federation Teletrade D.J


TeleTRADE D.J. International Consulting Ltd .- Dmitri, good day! To date, the main topic for discussion - the crisis of Russian banking system. Logically this and start our conversation. As a sudden impact on the banking crisis the company TeleTRADE? It appeared there in connection with the some insoluble problem?

- Yes is not affected. And we are watching developments closely, as they say in «polglaza». I know that there are problems in Meritbanke, Guta, Alfa-Bank - and then, mainly because they are our direct competitors. I can assume that problems may arise in other Russian banks. Right now we are seeing increasing demand from customers of other companies, especially those who worked through the Russian savings and loan institutions. Money is our customers' stored in a Swiss bank, is part of the world top-10. Parent company in Hong Kong. Head office for the countries of Eastern Europe - Prague. Therefore, any connection between the Russian crisis and the state of affairs in our company does not have.

- What do you see the prospects for the development of your company in the Russian market?

- No false modesty is to admit that TeleTRADE - a leading company in Russia and CIS countries to provide the services needed to work in the financial markets. We have the most extensive, real-functioning network of branches. We are well represented on the Internet. It TeleTRADE at this time offers a wide range of special education programs aimed at preparing the Russians to work in the financial markets. Personally, I am one hundred percent sure that our educational program at this time is objectively better for both the thematic breadth, and in depth consideration of specific issues. TeleTRADE constantly expanding the range of services. Now our customers can perform commercial operations not only in the currency market, Forex, but also to work with stocks and futures, hedzhiruya thus price risks, and to diversify its investment portfolio. It is obvious that the interest of Russians to work with financial instruments from year to year will only grow. In this regard, the main challenges the company - to consolidate our leading position in the segment, where we were dominating, and actively build up its presence in those market niches where we are quite competitive.

- How do you assess the pace of development of market information services?

- Russia at the moment, with some reservations is part of the world economy. Therefore, the pace and path of development of IT services can be predicted by exploring the development of the market in Western countries, of course, with some time lag. As the experience of the UK, for example, the leaders in providing services to work in the financial markets do not experience problems with customers. Moreover, in just 15 years, some of them crossed the path of relatively small, little-known brokerage firms and companies whose shares are traded on stock exchanges in London or New York. This is a testament to the tremendous growth in client assets, based on what we can conclude that the financial markets over the years attracted a growing number of participants. This trend is typical for the UK, Canada, France, Japan, and for today's Russia.

- How do you feel you expect from the industry as a whole?

- You can not be a prophet to a high degree of probability to predict the gradual extinction of small companies and market-sharing between the major players. In addition, I believe that more people will choose the company, which resemble our organizational structure - a legal entity registered abroad, and a network of offices in many cities in Russia and CIS countries.

- Why these companies?

- For a variety of reasons. I'll major. First, compared with a western company, represented here, or only through the Internet or through the Internet and agents, our customers expect a more personal relationship. If the client has a so-called «dispute», or with a pending order, or open / close positions on the market, in the case of «pure foreigner» always turns out so that the rights of the counterparty. In our case, in situations of our fault, we acknowledge our wrong and recovers lost or gain or loss caused by (of course, are due to company leaders, not the company odnodnevki). And secondly, in the case of work with Russian banks, a person other than a purely market risk, have to deal with the risk of non-made assets. And, as the current Russian reality, the second group of risks in some cases more than the first. Our fixed costs make up more than 100 000 dollars a month. Therefore, we are forced to build a sufficient customer base to provide better working conditions. For example, in order to increase the degree of confidence in the safety deposit offers its customers a guarantee of a bank UBS, which agree substantially reduce the risks of non-invested funds.

- Dmitri, you have many years in the foreign exchange market that you can respond to the concern of many question: «Can you really earn on Forex?»

- It is possible, but do not work with financial instruments to separate the high fence of any other activity. As in the case of the accountant, the owner of a retail outlet, a computer designer, and in the case of the manager, only 1 out of 10, with the best scenario is making significant progress. All the other or do not put enough effort, or simply are not the case. Forex - not Klondike, Forex, above all, work. And if you seriously want to achieve something, then you need to plow, plow and plow, regardless of any temporary difficulties or setbacks.

- A special company that can offer TeleTRADE wishing to earn a Forex?

- All those who had set a goal to achieve something in this field, I would recommend to take part in the new project of our company - «Employment Traders». The essence is quite simple - you make $ 300, and you will provide an opportunity for two weeks to conduct a real trading account in the amount of $ 5000. All the results on this account will be in real-time broadcast on the web site www.teletrade.ru. Thus, you get on the one hand an opportunity to advance with a minimum and limited risk in a real rather than a demo account ottestirovat its trading system and on the other - effectively advertise themselves before the eyes of potential investors. After the completion of two-week bidding results you will be available for display on a special page of our web site within 2 months, and you (optionally) receive 45-day demo account to further develop their own strategies. Such projects in the coupe with our professional training programs should lead to the emergence of more and more successful traders, which will surely increase the interest in the Forex market and investors. And this is the main goal of the company - to do everything we can to have the opportunity to attract investors to the asset management literate and successful professionals.

Interbank crisis of confidence

The crisis
Signaled the beginning of the crisis was the withdrawal of license Sodbiznesbanka "May 13. Immediately after the Internet appears in several versions of "black list" containing names of the banks, which will soon be presented to claim the Central. The next was "Kredittrast, having common ownership with Sodbiznesbankom. Later, one after another to announce serious difficulties a number of small banks: "Dialog-Optim, Paveletsky, Promeksimbank, Meritbank, etc.: As of this moment the market began to MBC" frozen "- banks, fear of license from the contractors, do not willingly give each other in debt.
In June, the Internet is information about the alleged seizure of documents produced by the special services in several offices, "Guta Bank and the initiation of criminal cases against its leaders. Problems with law enforcement agencies from the bank actually occurred, but they datirovalis March 2003 presented in the Internet article did not specify the dates and were seen as a description of contemporary events. In the face of mounting crisis, the bankers did not clarify the truth of information - many banks closed limits "Gutu". Until that point, the crisis was an implicit phase and was perceived as a serious threat only to bankers - the general public to remain on the sidelines. Thunder gryanul July 1 - the media was informed that "Vneshtorgbank" will not give the group "Guta" credit of $ 400 million. The news led to a few large corporate clients, "Guta Bank began to withdraw their funds from the accounts. Indeed, the question of granting credit VTB "Gute" officially already considered solved. Therefore, the denial of credit was perceived as a very disturbing signal. All this has caused a new flow of cutting limits MBC, not only to "Guta Bank, but all credit to the organization at all. The crisis of confidence among banks reached a climax. Not knowing who is next on the withdrawal of licenses, bankers chose not to extradite each other loans. Market MBC shlopnulsya now each bank had to solve their own problems.
July 2, the depositors' Guta Bank began to prematurely close their deposits and withdraw money with credit cards. On the weekends, (3, 4 July) it was possible to see a queue at the ATM. The money from ATMs quickly ended, they were brought back, but it needed time. The time during which each owner of a plastic card uspeval tell your friends about the problem. And now the money has already been filmed, not only with cards issued "Gutoy, as with all issued by Russian banks. The crisis spilled into the streets, taking the face of mild panic and a nation of empty ATMs.
On Monday, July 5, depositors besieged office Guta Bank, stood queue of people trying to save their money faster. In a media information (and not subsequently confirmed) of the problems at Alfa Bank. " Now turn and appeared here. All Monday banks regularly gave money, working hours of some branches have been increased, done everything to bring down the panic. By the evening turns decreased, the situation has almost returned to normal. However, on the morning of Tuesday July 6 in Moscow, no one branch of Guta Bank has not started work. By the middle of the day "for technical reasons" were shut down all its branches in St. Petersburg, in the evening - in other cities. At the same time, the media has information on the possible withdrawal of the license of the "Guty".
July 7, reaches its climax the second stage of the crisis - all depositors besieged banks and ATMs, and recorded in the queue to withdraw money. Visa International is blocking the operation of plastic cards issued by "Guta Bank. Alfa-Bank is the staff of the holidays and increases the working day. At the same time, several aircraft and a lot of collector cars deliver cash in the offices of "Alpha". By the evening of the Alfa-Bank "takes an unprecedented decision - entered desyatiprotsentnaya Commission for early withdrawal of money from time deposits. In the media immediately began discussions on ethics and legality of this step, but it clearly is effective - the flow panikuyuschih investors recedes. By the end of the week number of those wishing to withdraw money urgently markedly reduced, and by the end of next Alfa Bank cancels commission. VTB has announced the purchase of "Guta Bank and the crisis ends. This is a landmark moment - as soon as FAS gives permission for the takeover, but it took less than one day (!), Officials immediately declare the resolution of the crisis.

Causes

Speaking on the causes of the crisis, first of all you need to indicate in its principal difference from the events of 1998. If ninety-eighth decline in the banks was due to budgetary crisis, the the state could not pay the debts, then this time it was just about the banking crisis, and therefore not such a global and disabilities caused by a young Russian banking system.
Remember how, in general terms, is banking business. Bank accumulates funds, taking money on deposit, then gives the money in the form of loans. Creditors returned the money with interest, and the bank pays to investors, earning the difference in interest rates. This scheme is highly simplified, but represents the essence. Obviously, the bank sets the line between the dates on which he returned the money and end dates of term deposits, and also takes into account the risks of a non-credit and early termination of the deposits. The Bank holds some of the "cushion" of cash and highly liquid assets in case of need for urgent payments. In the case of a sharp (unscheduled Bank) an increase in the number wanting to withdraw money, the bank takes the credit on the interbank lending market (ICB). At the same market bank "sells" surplus funds, reducing the size of his pillow. " To do otherwise (to keep the case without a huge "cushion" of liquid assets), the bank simply can not - because starting with a certain amount of "cushion" the profitability of banks is reduced to zero and even became negative in real terms. In fact, MBC reliable banking system to insure against unexpected "distortions" and local crises. The bank, suddenly found themselves cut off from the mechanism of ICB, in danger of falling victim to balance the gap - that is, fail not because there is nothing to pay at all, but because there is nothing to pay now, the money will be tomorrow. After all, the investor can collect the money before the end of the contribution, but the bank can not be issued by the borrower to return the loan ahead of schedule (for Russia in the general case, this is the case). That was what happened in early July - paralizatsiya market MBC has left the banks alone with panikuyuschimi investors who obankrotili some of them.
But what happens if suddenly a huge number of contributors (including the crisis of corporate clients) across the country want to withdraw money from accounts in Europe or the U.S.? In developed countries there is a system of the Central Bank overdraft lending commercial banks. At each commercial bank has a limit value is determined by the degree of reliability and many other parameters. In critical situation, the bank can get instant loan from the Central Bank (or the Fed in the case of States) to prevent the balance gap. The very existence of this scheme calms investors, reduces anxiety in the bad moments, and then - almost eliminates the likelihood of a crisis. In Russia, such a scheme does not work happened that, and the Central Bank spent a lot of time on the day the decision on granting the loan, thus exacerbating the crisis. This reason is likely to be resolved is not yet very soon. This is a matter of civility financial environment - banks must become more transparent, and state agencies more open and reliable. And in the end must be corresponding changes in the legislation.
Another reason relates to the current situation in the country. Since the arrest of Khodorkovsky, and as untightening situation with Yukos, began the flight of capital from Russia. Over the past six months have left the country for more than 15 billion dollars (according to the Center for Development "Sergei Aleksashkina), which is four times more than during the same period in 2003. This has created an exodus of funds from accounts in size and brought the crisis.
Interesting wording, explaining the reason for revoking the license of the Sodbiznesbanka:: failure of federal laws regulating banking activities, and regulations the Bank of Russia, as well as repeated violation of the law "on combating the legalization (laundering) of proceeds." In fact, this phrase has become a signal to top "freezing" the market MBC. Given the fact, taken from where the capital of banks registered in the period between 1990 and 2000, which meant that following the withdrawal of licenses for each may be - in Russia is virtually impossible to find a bank that is not suspected in the legalization of income.
It is impossible not to draw attention to the serious mistake of Viktor Zubkov - Chapter FCFM (Federal Service for Financial Monitoring). Commenting on the media situation with Sodbiznesbankom ", he stated that he FCFM have similar claims to have more banks. Hence the cause for the proliferation of fictitious "blacklists", which seems to not exist, and inflame the market MBC.
Another possible reason, which worsened the situation for "Guta Bank - is a strong drop in Russian stock market in recent months. There is reason to believe (opec.ru), that the bank had invested heavily in the shares of Yukos, which over the past two months before the crisis have lost the price up to 50%. In addition, June 16, the RTS has published a list of seven companies - participants in emergency section FORTS, which are not fulfilled obligations iyunskim futures. This list has been and Guta Bank. The situation with Yukos shares and futures can be a serious mistake risk management bank. It is unlikely that it could bring so much damage that there is a risk of bankruptcy, but in a tense situation, it was another reason for closing the limits on MBC "Gutu".
There is another reason for the crisis. In the media to actively (and the reasonable) mussiruetsya major topic of interest (and especially the public) banks in this crisis. There could be a coincidence that the information on the refusal "Gute" to grant a loan "Vneshtorgbank" soaked to the press in those days. And nothing could be so casual quick approval from the Federal Antimonopoly Service for the purchase of VTB 85.8% shares in Guta Bank, immediately after which the crisis was officially over. " According to the manual "Alfa Bank" ( "Russian Newspaper"), is confident that much of the information on Alpha, tsirkulirovavshaya in the media during a crisis - it is "proplachenny black PR." Ultimately, the state-owned banks have benefited, but all commercial losses to some extent.
All this suggests that state agencies are likely to deliberately ignore the crisis at its early stage. And as soon as the situation is resolved in a scenario, favorable gosbankam, have taken the necessary measures.

Consequences
There is reason to believe that we will see a continuation of the crisis in August and September. At this point, to be published financial statements of banks. And be aware of the value of losses incurred as a result of the July events. This can cause a narrowing of the new market MBC. At the same time, Central Bank will begin to study the information provided to it by commercial banks to participate in the system of deposit insurance. That's when the Central Bank is likely to begin to withdraw the license:
Will this second wave of crisis or will be relatively mild - is now difficult to predict. Most likely, it will look like a series of reviews of licenses with subsequent acquisitions. For investors it will be safe, because absorbing the bank will fully assume the obligations of uptake. Perhaps this procedure extend for six months and more - in order not to cause panic, while the collapse of several banks. And it may be triggered by a new crisis, as repeated attacks on non-resistant major banks - such as a "Guta Bank, and what remains" Alfa Bank. "
Ethics (and the legitimacy) of action of CB is in doubt, but ultimately this is a bit ozdorovit the Russian banking system. Indeed, Russia has to date more than 1300 commercial banks - the figure of at least an order of magnitude exceeds the "norm" for the economic development of the state.
Gosbankami absorption of small banks - although aggressive, but in general, is useful for Russia. Worse is that the absorption of large banks with an extensive branch network (like "Guta") might lead to monopolization of banking services "Sberbank and Vneshtorgbank. Given that holding to the terms of the commercial banks will bear the loss ( "Alfa Bank", according to various estimates, have lost during the month from 10% to 20% of the depositors and to 10 million dollars of direct losses), this will further increase the share of market attributable to the banks in which significant stakes in state-owned.
Regarding the legislative side, the following consequences. A law on payments to the Bank of Russia on deposits of individuals recognized in the bankrupt banks not involved in the system of compulsory insurance of individual deposits in Russian banks. " The law gives the government guarantees to depositors ruhnuvshih banks retroactively - on deposits, open since December 27, 2003. Another law makes changes to the law on the Central Bank and on banks and banking activities. " According to him, the Central Bank can now limit the amount of the interest rate commercial banks on time deposits. This should reduce the risks in the banking sector (of course, at the same time reducing the yield). Since 2006, will start in normal mode, the system of insurance of individual deposits. Banks are not logged on to take deposits from the population can not, then this is another way to reduce the number of banks, while reducing the risks of investment.
Furthermore - and I think Central Bank will, through legislation, to prevent Russia in branches of foreign banks, at least until 2006. On the one hand - it would effectively develop the Russian banks, on the other hand - would strengthen the monopoly and make the integration of Russia into the international banking system.
For ordinary investors, all this means: first, that the banking system in Russia in the next two - three years to become much more reliable, and secondly, that within the next year is possible "echoes" the last crisis, which may be destroying the nerves, but will represent a serious threat to the banks rather than investors.

Anton Plyasunov
(EA United Markets)

Participants in the stock market

The main actors in the stock market are, of course, big mutual funds, major investment companies and banks. They are such as accumulate funds of ordinary depositors, which is several hundred thousand. Their deals are always quite high and, as a rule, the deal does not go in one day, and stretched for a few, as appears on the market counterparties on the other side wanting to make a deal. Large investment companies have well-diversified portfolio of securities, which allows them to be in a stable condition in comparison to other investors.

Typically, the development strategies in such companies is a group of professional analysts, rating the most fundamental factors. The actions of these analysts, as a rule, is always limited and strictly controlled by the supreme leadership of the company, and are aimed at avoiding unnecessary risk investments with a proposal for a trader. Efforts to this command entirely recovered thanks to the high volume of transactions in which even minor fluctuations in price have a significant income. Moreover, the analytical departments of major investment firms and mutual funds have the latest software analysis and the latest developments in computer technology and telecommunications. Major investment companies also have a full range of information services, moreover, with their brokers on the exchange, they can make their own quotes purchase, speaking, in such a way as a market maker, but this will be written below.

A more limited companies have less capital. These companies typically can not carry out their transactions on favorable exchange rate for them, because of the small volume of transactions. Nevertheless, they have successfully diversified their capital, but were unable to keep up to date equipment and software are equally large companies. Analysis Division market less qualified, because of the fact that the company could not initially appoint a high salary for such a responsibility, and to link future earnings for future income earned through these traders for the company. Partly because of that company's traders enter into a risky transaction, in order to obtain more profit, but on the other hand, they risk a lot to lose. Because of these factors, companies with small capital, have fewer opportunities to generate income from investments in securities, as large companies, and the way to the Revenue for more risky.

However, the weak and vulnerable in terms of these factors are the ordinary investors. Going to the market through a broker, they enter into a minimum transaction allowed the market and a few lots. The situation is made worse at times and that those few lots were purchased through margin accounts, provided by a broker, at the price proposed by the broker. In such circumstances, ordinary investors can not have a well-planned portfolio of the 4-10 attacks. They lack the tools and opportunities to buy large batches of stock and to monitor each of them, as well as in margin account, they will be able to follow only the movements of quotations of securities 1-3, controlling the time the broker will offer to update your account or sell some of the securities .

Most ordinary investors, before arriving at an investor in the stock market, engaged in activities or as a non-investment, or playing the stock exchange. Sometimes these people lack the knowledge, and reading one or more pamphlets or books on market analysis, feel half-professional players, but it is not so, and as will be shown below those of ordinary players and investors in the vast majority of cases will directly depend on their the ability to control their emotions and psychological state, with control of open positions.

Ordinary investors, as opposed to investment companies are not able to get fresh quotes and economic news in real time and thus quickly respond to them, except for this market analysis of these investors restricted their personal views on the analysis. Software and computer-assisted ordinary investors also lagged behind those that are used in smaller investment companies. All these factors have led to the weak position of ordinary investors in the stock market.

Then look at the classification of participants in the stock market in market terms. In terms of strategy they are divided into four groups, each of which is in compliance with the name of four animals: bulls, bears, pigs, sheep.

As you know, bull horns, beat the enemy from the bottom up, so the bull market is associated with the buyer, the player who makes a bet on improving quotations and wins when prices rise. Bear on the contrary, the defense, beat the enemy paw down, so the bear went into the jargon of market participants, as the seller, the player who bet on the decline, and wins when prices fall.

Pigs are alchnye players. Having lost all of the greed of caution, they fall under the knife. Some pigs are buying or selling prohibitively high for those positions, progoraya at the first slight movement of the market is not in their favor. Other разоряются, perederzhav position, that is, continuing to wait for even greater profits, although the trend has turned.

Sheep are timid players boyazlivo following trends, rumors and gurus. From time to time they natsepiv a bychi horn or a well-bearskin, trying to act as experts. However, they are easily recognizable by жалобному bleyaniyu when the market come hard times, such as, for example, the lack of trend.

As soon as the doors open markets, the bulls are beginning to buy, bears to sell, close and violation of pigs and sheep. It is these groups of exchange, serving buyers and sellers, prices are formed, which in turn depend on the price of demand and price proposals. "The price of demand" is the price, which asks for the desired goods to the buyer, and the "offer price" is the price, which proposes to sell the goods. Disputes between buyers and sellers due to discrepancies in prices of supply and demand and are permanent.

Buyers want to pay as little as possible, and the sellers ¾ take as much as possible. If the two teams will each stand on their own, without changing the price of supply and demand, the transaction will never take place. If the deal does not take place, the market did not get the price of the paper, as the price of supply and demand only the desired price of the seller and buyer. A seller has a choice: either to wait for price increases, or to agree to a proposed lower price. A buyer also has a choice: either to wait for lower prices, or nadbavit its price. The transaction takes place at a time when both parties to assess the market the same way: a pushy bull, agreeing on the terms of the seller pays for the product more, or timorous bear, agreeing on the terms of the buyer sells the goods cheaper. Throgmorton Street ranged his presence led to action, and the bulls and bears. They speed up the negotiation process between the bulls and bears, as the competitors themselves are able to intercept and advantageous position before.

The buyer knows that if it is too long razdumyvat, another dealer, interfering in the bidding, uvedet goods. And the seller knows that if you do not sbavit price, another dealer, interfering in the bidding may go to the assignment of another seller. Abundance hesitant dealer encourages buyers and sellers be posgovorchivee with each other. The transaction takes place at a time when the two men ¾ the buyer and seller evaluate the market equally.

Work on the EUR / USD ungrateful occupation

Since the introduction of the single European currency has been a year and three months, a history, and now you can make the first analytical conclusions. It is known that at the time of emergence of the euro, many analysts things are the most favorable forecasts for the euro. Some believed that by mid-1999, the euro will reach 1.25, and will be confident in price relative to the U.S. in the future. However, history has shown otherwise. What are the possible causes of failures of the first euro?

There is already mass analysts expressing their own views on this matter. Most of them quite rightly argue that the projected economic growth of European countries is lower than projected, while growth in the U.S. economy above projected, because of this, investor sentiment has changed: the dollar becomes more attractive. There are also views regarding the internal contradictions of participants in the euro zone, vylivshihsya in the scandal with the appointments of key management positions and power. For the stability of the euro, above all, it was necessary to strengthen the credibility of the European Central Bank (ECB). To this end, the ECB in the early years of its operations is particularly important to establish its own distinct identity. Management of the bank was required to act in such a way as to eliminate the suspicion that, in its ranks, there are some kind of national coalition. The battle between the Dutch Wim Duysenbergom and Frenchman Jean-Claude Trichet for the appointment of the first president of the ECB has been counterproductive, switch attention to the professional abilities of candidates to contest states.

France wanted to nominate its own candidate for the post, others resisted. Absurd compromise achieved as a result, allowed France to claim that Duysenberg goes to resign from the post of ECB president in four years (instead of eight years) in favor of Trichet, while Duysenberg himself could deny such an intention. All this is not added to the prestige of his institution. Equally important was to establish proper accountability of the ECB to ensure the long-term political support for a common currency. Weakness explanation from the ECB of its economic policy in the event of any serious economic disruption in the euro area can only strengthen antiintegratsionnye sentiment in public opinion.

Significantly less, yet can not be so obvious to the countries participating in the euro zone, is the fact that the euro is based on a single monetary and currency policy, which is fully transferred to the supranational ECB and the EU, as well as vysokointegrirovannye cash and credit markets, the scope, depth and liquidity that has increased through the creation of the EMU. A single monetary policy could be effective only if the countries belonging to the euro would have the same level of development, but, as we know, this is not the case. Regarding the "strong" euro would not benefit primarily poor countries, as a relatively "soft" euro hurts the interests of most developed countries, notably Germany and the Netherlands, which will be subjected to inflationary pressures.

For the majority of the member countries of EMU (with the exception of Austria, Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and with well-known reservations France) until the mid-90's was characterized by considerable asinhronnost the economic cycle. It is therefore possible the emergence of so-called asymmetric shocks, that is, economic shocks that affect only a few euro. The transfer of currency and monetary policy to the Union of national States deprives the principal means of crisis management, while the Union is, by definition, can not adjust their policies to the current needs of individual countries, therefore in the euro zone will occur with greater frequency of crises affecting euro investment climate.

From the viewpoint of economic theory, the 11 Member States of EMU does not constitute "the best currency zone, and their decision to establish a union has been primarily political in nature. Therefore, while the EMU and the euro remained the experiment, the outcome of which has not been clear.

The main weakness of the euro as the currency is that it is not a sovereign state with clearly defined interests and political objectives, a conglomerate of various nations. Created by supranational bodies have a broad but still limited, delegated authority.

In the beginning many were interested in launching the euro this question: how fast (if at all a) other countries are reorienting their reserves to the euro? Stable transfer of reserves of foreign central banks in the euro would seriously support and strengthen the confidence of foreign investors in the new currency. However, povalnogo transfer of reserves in the euro did not take place. This protivodeystvoval a number of factors.

First, do not expect the transfer cost reserves from using a fixed rate, mostly pegged to the dollar or a basket of currencies dominated by the dollar. These states are unlikely to have made a significant change in the near future, after the introduction of the euro. In addition, most countries in Latin America and Asia have a stronger trade ties with the United States than with Europe. They are also not worth it to wait for dumping dollars. Certainly, you can only say that if changes in the structure of reserves in these states from the dollar and the euro will happen, then the process will be gradual and not significant.

Another prerequisite for becoming a reserve currency is the availability of financial markets, where central banks are willing to invest their foreign currency reserves. The global financial centers in Europe can be identified only Frankfurt and London, and the latter focuses more on America and Asia than in Europe. Certainly, U.S. financial markets are most developed in all respects, than Europe, which has added a lot of advantages in the fight for the role of the dominant currency. Moreover, the United States to pay interest on dollar assets of foreign currency authorities, who are placed in bank deposits or securities. Thus, financing the deficit by increasing U.S. commitments in relation to the official holders of dollar reserves virtually no different from the usual borrowing in the form of securities. The main advantage is that the medium-and long-term interest rates slightly lower than they would have been if the dollar does not have a reserve currency.

The advent of the euro has created an invisible competition between the two centers of the USA on the one hand and Europe on the other. And that would not say analysts loser in this competition, the currency will lose support and influence in the financial world, and the country's control. Following this logic, we can assume that the strong euro does not need the U.S., a weak euro does not need members of the eurozone countries, which means that both parties will take all steps within their power (of course within the limits of their knowledge and to the extent necessary) to reasonable strengthening its own currency.

It would probably volnodumstvom suggest that U.S. financial authorities have defined the strategic plan for the dollar to the Euro, but acknowledge that competition in the financial markets of the two currencies is quite reasonable. In turn, such a measure of competition, "spuskaemye above" may contain as improving the investment climate by changing the law, and the artificial equalization rate through currency intervention. It is these factors lihoradyat Market euros.

Primary treatment of 1,18 unlikely, could put on a suspicion, investors in euro-denominated assets, through which a 14 months old on the composition of the 0,94, marking thus fall to 20.5%. Actually, this is catastrophic decline, could only reduce the capital investors in euro-denominated assets, as well as almost non-existent in Europe risk financial instruments, giving 20.5% and more, to compensate for losses from the devaluation.

The consequence of this and has long listed the reasons for the decline rate. So if at the beginning of 1999, its assets transferred to the euro, investors are very cautious, but now seems to have disappointed the Europeans in the euro and the dollar to invest in financial market instruments.

This turn of events is not considered the financiers of Europe, opening the way to the euro, so the step response, a recovery of the euro. However, because of a fundamental nature, the basic trend of the ECB was unable to break. Remained only a violent attempt to confuse the desire medium-sized and small speculators, following the main trend and the bear. Violent actions of European powers to maintain the course was to conduct foreign exchange interventions by selling dollars in the foreign exchange market.

As history has shown, foreign exchange intervention can be as long, long day, or momentalnymi, long few seconds. Long intervention forced the ECB to dismiss the market large quantities of dollars, as in this case met the desire of all parties, namerivavshihsya exchange currency in the day, this was mainly on exporting and importing. In a lengthy ECB monetary intervention, usually begins slowly to meet the current requests for dollars, raising the rate for 15-40 points for 5-15 minutes. In total rate rises, as a rule, at 120-180 points for the day.

In the case of a sudden currency intervention ECB at one point dropping to the market a considerable amount of dollars, than immediately meets the current market demand for dollars and the remaining amount of an excess demand for euros, the price, which increases dramatically. This intervention resulted in a drastic course of isolation from their former values and temporary stabilization of its level of 90-150 points more original. Later, the stabilization of the course at this level might not happen: a course can quickly rolls back to a half-off, but it may gradually deduct points points. Further evolution rate will depend on the hands of market forces that shape demand and supply in the market, as well as follow-up the ECB.

The key to speculators, of course, are not the consequences of the intervention, but rather the very intervention. The sudden intervention undertaken by the ECB, is aimed not only to maintain the course, and cooling the hot heads of medium and small speculators, using the shoulders 40-100, and cling to the trend. Everyone is well aware that no place, no Dealing Center, is not capable of such a situation to close an open position on the stop-loss of 25-40 points. The office, in which speculators holding accounts may, in general, reduced to zero, or close the account, even if the rate was at an artificially elevated level of just a few seconds. It follows that the sudden intervention ECB could lead to a complete disaster and bankruptcy bills speculator. This is the most dangerous.

Experienced traders, did not recommend that work on the newly emerging markets, whose history has not yet made up of three years or more. They believe that, first, the young markets have not yet formed a group of professional participants of the bulls and bears in the market resulting in less predictable, and secondly, did not determine the potential effect on the market to external factors, including actions central banks and supervisory bodies.