Sunday, February 1, 2009

Successful Intra-Day Traders


Successful intra - day traders remain neutral

Staying neutral is to be as emotionally cut off from your intra-day trading decisions.

Being neutral to the profit and loss
You probably know people for whom the world merknet when they take a loss of $ 100, but if they earn $ 1000, you are at the top of the world. Definitely they are not neutral. If this applies to you, your intra-day trade, almost certainly, is controlled by fear and greed: reduced by $ 100, you probably do not want to take a loss just because you know that will suffer emotionally. Rising to $ 1000, you would like more, even if you must, just, take profits. Or you can take profits too early, because they fear that the position could turn against you. All this is not a good intra-day trade.

Professional intra-day traders do not permit daily fluctuations in their bills, disturb them. The results of one week is not important, do not even have the monthly results. This is only a small episode in their trading career. Daily variations actually have little meaning.

Emotional ups and downs is quite normal for beginners intra-day traders. If these emotions affect your shopping decisions too much, it is advisable to go back to trade on paper, in order to acquire confidence. You should not allow these fluctuations to overly influence you.

Being neutral to the price movements
You probably familiar with the situation when the trade goes against you and you start looking for reasons why it is still a good position and you should retain it. This is very dangerous for the intra-day traders, because it leads to their feet and big losses.

strategies in the trading process - the worst thing you can do. You can always find justification for their position to go up or down, but you do not see an objective price movement. You have moved from response to the anticipation! Within-day trader must not, under any circumstances, try to predict future price movements.

As the intra-day trader you must play on the actual price movement rather than on the motion, which must be! Please leave predictions to investors, you will sell during the day.
Most intra-day traders are included in the position, based on fundamental data. They mixed intra-day trade with the investment. It is also very dangerous. At the time, as may be reason to enter the position for the short-term trading, they regarded it as an investment, even if it goes against them.

Consider the famous example of
Think of "Enron".
Yes, were moments during the sale of "Enron", when the purchase was justified. Some bought Enron during the short recovery of $ 8.5 to $ 10. The problem is that if you base their entry on the confidence that the company is cheap and it should go up, you will be more and more inclined to hold their position or even add to it when the price becomes lower. The stronger your opinion about the market-based instruments, the harder to make decisions based on actual price movement.

Within-day traders do not have to do this. We strongly advise you to have a separate account to trade on fundamental data. In intra-day trade with the big lever, you could be tempted to take risks that would be too high!

We are not saying that bad to have expectations, trading within the day: everyone should know what the potential outcome of his position. If these expectations, however, is not true, within-day trader must recognize and respond according to what is actually happening.

Jens Clover
based on daytradingcoach.com

Education MQL II. Lesson 9

Hello dear readers. Today we will write an expert and a custom indicator. The expert will deal with the use of an indicator.



9.1. The algorithm and code indicator



The indicator uses two arrays of data, it consists of two lines. Both lines are moving averages. First we construct the average of the maximum price, the second from the floor. For this purpose we use a standard extended moving average indicator. It is this kind:

iMAEx (period, ma_method, ma_shift, applied_price, shift)



As an indicator, we have an external variable, it defines the period average.



/ * [[

Name: = urovni

Author: = forextimes

Link: = artur@fxtest.ru

Separate Window: = NoFirst

Color: = Blue

First Draw Type: = Line

First Symbol: = 217

Use Second Data: = Yes

Second Color: = Red

Second Draw Type: = Line

Second Symbol: = 218

]] * /

Inputs: per (21);



Variable: shift (0), HMa (0), lMa (0);



SetLoopCount (0);

/ / Loop from first bar to current bar (with shift = 0)

For shift = Bars-1 Downto 0 Begin



HMa = iMAEx (per, MODE_EMA, 0, PRICE_HIGH, shift);

LMa = iMAEx (per, MODE_EMA, 0, PRICE_LOW, shift);



SetIndexValue (shift, HMa);

SetIndexValue2 (shift, LMa);

End;



The algorithm is very simple, so I did not write an explanation.



9.2. The algorithm and code expert



The expert verifies the existence of trends and track the status of the price indicator on the line. The presence of a very primitive trend is verified by checking the last three value moving average, if each following the previous trend is more bullish, or bearish. If the bull trend price lower than the average user indicator, is buying, if the price trend bear more top line indicator sells.



Withdrawal shall be effected as to stop orders and under the condition, condition of entry is to the opposite line of custom indicator.



There are two external variables, the first -defines the period indicator, - defines the period of determining the average trend.



It is necessary to limit the time for the opening position. This is done in order not to open multiple positions in one bar. The condition has the form:



if curtime-LastTradeTime <4 * 3600 then exit;

figure before the <* 3600>, the value taymfrema Hours



/ * [[

Name: = expertUrovni

Author: = forextimes

Link: = fxtest.ru

Lots: = 1.00

Stop Loss: = 30

Take Profit: = 50

Trailing Stop: = 0

]] * /

defines: per (5), perMa (21);

var: HMa0 (0), LMa0 (0), Ma1 (0), Ma2 (0), Ma3 (0), cnt (0);



if curtime-LastTradeTime <4 * 3600 then exit;



/ *



HMa0 = iCustom ( "urovni", per, MODE_FIRST, 0);

LMa0 = iCustom ( "urovni", per, MODE_SECOND, 0);



* /



HMa0 = iMAEx (per, MODE_EMA, 0, PRICE_HIGH, 0);

LMa0 = iMAEx (per, MODE_EMA, 0, PRICE_LOW, 0);



Ma1 = iMAEx (perMa, MODE_EMA, 0, PRICE_close, 1);

Ma2 = iMAEx (perMa, MODE_EMA, 0, PRICE_close, 2);

Ma3 = iMAEx (perMa, MODE_EMA, 0, PRICE_close, 3);



if TotalTrades = 0 then (



if Ma1-Ma2> 0 and Ma2-Ma3> 0 and ask
then (SetOrder (op_buy, lots, ask, 3, bid-stoploss * point, bid + takeprofit * point, blue); exit;);



if Ma3-Ma2> 0 and Ma2-Ma1> 0 and bid> HMa0

then (SetOrder (op_sell, lots, bid, 3, ask + stoploss * point, ask-takeprofit * point, red); exit;);

);

if TotalTrades> 0 then

(

for cnt = 1 to TotalTrades

(

if OrderValue (cnt, VAL_TYPE) <= OP_SELL and

OrderValue (cnt, VAL_SYMBOL) = Symbol then

(

If OrderValue (cnt, VAL_TYPE) = OP_BUY then

(

if bid> HMa0 then

(

CloseOrder (OrderValue (cnt, VAL_TICKET), OrderValue (cnt, VAL_LOTS), Bid, 3, Violet);



Exit;

);



);



If OrderValue (cnt, VAL_TYPE) = OP_SELL then

(

if ask
(

CloseOrder (OrderValue (cnt, VAL_TICKET), OrderValue (cnt, VAL_LOTS), ask, 3, Violet);



Exit;

);



);



);

);)





As testing expert with the use of custom indicators is very slow, variable, using a custom indicator is commented out. Comments can be removed for inspection of the indicator.



The next lesson will also be practical if you have the desire to implement an interesting algorithm, be sure to write.





Halhalyan Arthur

Technical support for traders



Saturday, January 31, 2009

Study indicators. Part One. Introduction

Introduction

This article was written to introduce the concept of indicators and explain how to use them in your analysis. We pour some light on the differences between advanced and lagging indicators, as well as examine their advantages and disadvantages. Many, if not the most popular indicators are as oscillators. Mindful of this, we also show how to read and oscillators to explain how to get signals. Later vetom number of indicators on, we turn our attention to certain indicators, and present examples of signals in action.
What is the indicator?

The indicator - a number of data points, which are obtained by applying a formula to price data protection. Price data includes any combination of the opening (open), the highest value (high), the lowest value (low) or the closure of close) during the period of time. Some indicators can only use the closing price in tovremya others include in their formula for the volume and open interest. Introduce the price data in a formula and calculated

. For example, the average number of 3 closing price - provides a single point of data ((4 1 +43 +43) / 3 = 42.33).

However, one data point does not daetmnogo information and does not show that makes indikator.Dlya analysis requires a number of data points over time. By creating time-series data points, the comparison can be made between present and past levels. For purposes of analysis, indicators usually show in graphic form above or below the price chart (a chart). Shown in graphic form, the indicator can be compared with the corresponding price schedule. Sometimes the indicators are built on top of price schedule for a more accurate comparison.
With the proposed indicators?

The indicator suggests a different perspective to analyze the price movement. Some, such as moving averages of values derived from simple formulas, and mechanics is relatively simple to understand. Others, like stohastikov (Stochastics), have complex formulas and require more time to study, to fully understand and appreciate. Regardless of the complexity of the formula, the indicators can provide a unique perspective in defining the strength and direction of price changes.
Simple moving average (Simple moving average) - an indicator, which calculates the average

price on the number of periods. If extremely volatile price fluctuations, the moving average value can help smooth the data. Moving average value filters out random noise and offers a smooth-term price movements. Schedule of Veritas (VRTS) displays greater volatility, and the analyst may have difficulty in determining the trend. Applying the 1 0-day simple moving average value to the price schedule, random fluctuations smoothed to facilitate the opportunity to identify the trend.

Why use LEDs?
Indicators serve three broad functions: prevention, validation and prediction.
LED can act as a warning to examine the price movement of a little more closely. If momentum (driving force) is reduced, it could be a signal that can be expected to break through support. Or, if formed a more positive divergence (the difference), it can serve as a warning to watch for a sharp break through the resistance. LEDs can be used to confirm other technical analysis tools. If there is a drastic change in the price of the price chart, the intersection of the moving average values could serve as evidence of this breakthrough. Or, if the market punch line support, the corresponding indicator on the graph Low On-Balance-Volume (OBV), it could serve as a proof of the weakness of the market. Some investors and traders use indicators to predict the direction of future changes in prices.

Tips for using indicators.

Indicators show. This may sound too categorical, but sometimes traders ignored the change in the price and focus on the display. Indicators filtered price movement formulas. Also, they - and not derived directly reflect the price action. This should be taken into account when applying the analysis. Any analysis of the indicator should be taken, mindful of izmeneniitseny. As the indicator shows the change in prices? Price movement is becoming more powerful? Weaker?

Even though the situation may be obvious, sometimes indicators to generate signals for buying and selling, the signals must be taken in context with other technical analysis tools. The indicator may signal the purchase, but if the chart shows a downward triangle with a number of declining peaks, it could be a false alarm.

Figure Inktomi (INKT), MACD grew from April to August and formed a positive divergence in August. MACD signaled the possibility of buying, but the market was unable to overcome the resistance level and reach the previous peak. This is not confirmation of the market was a sign warning against long positions. For the record, the signal for the sale took place when the market prorval line support decreasing the triangle at the beginning of October 00.

As always in the technical analysis, the ability to read the indicators more art than science. The same indicator may show different behavioral models that are applicable to different actions. LEDs, which work well for IBM, c could not work for the airlines Delta. Expertise with the various indicators can be done through careful study and analysis.

Today, using hundreds of indicators, new indicators under construction each week. Technical analysis programs come with sets of indicators, which vstraivayut, and even allow users to create their own display. Given the number of fraud, which is associated with indicators, choosing an indicator that you will follow, the challenge of his ukroscheniya. Even with the introduction of hundreds novyhindikatorov, only a few offer an excellent prospect and worthy of attention. Strangely enough, but the indicators, which generally deserve more attention - those who have passed the test of time.

When choosing an indicator to analyze, select it carefully and sparingly. Attempts to reach more than five indicators is usually futile. Better to concentrate on two or three indicators, and to study their effect. Try to select indicators, which complement each other, rather than those that operate in unison, and generates the same signals. For example, it would be redundant to use two indicators, which are good to show perekuplennye and resell the levels, such as Stochastics and RSI . Both of them show momentum (driving force) levels perekuplennosti and pereprodannosti.

Arthur Hill

Features of the national trade


No, probably it is in the blood of the population one-sixth of the land ... Everybody knows where it is free cheese, and many know about it, that "we are not so rich to buy cheap things, and still are very fond of halyavu. Even though not stoprotsentnaya ball, but to a less expensive ... So we buy the product in unlimited quantities of the Polish-Turkish-Chinese friendship, klyuem on the pyramid and all the confidence in the two hundred per cent per annum.
Almost the same can be said about the work on international currency markets. What do you think, where the bulk of the clients of brokerage firms, allowing the side of more than 1 00 and a minimum deposit of USD 1 000? True, they probably say porusski! And then you can not particularly straining to make a simple human desire to get where cheaper. As you select a thousand?
Very simply. Suppose you nachitalis on enrichment at the Stock and decided to try. You are getting so protected and hidden from his wife one thousand dollars, and start looking for a suitable office. You in the eye popadaetsya advertising company that offers such an environment: the shoulder 100 and a minimum deposit of 1 000 U.S. dollars. It suits you and that you give us your honest earn thousand ... and possibly two ... but clearly less than ten. By the way, we should note that for the success of the need always to keep abreast of market developments, and that at least a pair of triple-hundred a month, if not more.
Now consider a normal working day: 1 0 August 1 999, 1 4:25 GMT; at this time to EUR LOW = 1, 070 1 HIGH = 1, 0764 LAST = 1 0738 and the day is not over. The difference between these two values is EUR 0,0063, that when the amount of lots in the 1 00 thousand U.S. dollars is USD630, that is, more than half of your deposit. But in your contract probably will be a point that if you lose more than half the money in your account - the position is closed by a locked until you do not fill up or not zaberete their money. Now imagine that you have opened almost at the crest, thinking that the quotes will be even higher, and did not have time to close, when they went down. As a result, over time you lose a thousand dollars, and in the brokerage firm you smiling saying "come yet, they have already committed to you, maybe even ignorirovav orders to the opening position.
Thus, the greater the amount of leverage, the greater the risk is subject to your personal account, and the faster it can dry up. Even if you are lucky, a market movement against you, even briefly, can cost profit for several days.

P.S. But some offer a shoulder 500 ...
Igor Tarielashvili.

Hours Market

The operation of currency markets does not stop even for a minute. His work in calendar days, they begin in the Far East, New Zealand (Wellington), passing successively time zones - in Sydney, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Moscow, Frankfurt, London, and finishing the day in New York and Los Angeles.

Counting time zones is of the Prime Meridian, which passes through Greenwich (London suburb), and time is called the world or GMT - Greenwich Meridian Time. Depending on the season (summer or winter) in various financial centers around the world will be different from the world's time GMT on the number of hours in the table
The working day in exchange dealers western commercial banks usually starts at 7.30 am local time. At 8.00 dealers have been actively entered into the transaction. The morning half-hour is usually devoted to a brief analysis of the events that have occurred in world currency markets at the time of commencement of work. Retailers enjoyed the economic and technical analysis of the market, read analytical articles in the media, exchange of views, as well as fresh rumors with each other and with dealers of other commercial banks. On the basis of various data gradually emerging picture of the possible conduct of the exchange rate for the next day with different versions of the probability of certain events.

By eight o'clock in the morning market, consisting of individual dealers, develop tactics and behavior in general is beginning to be included in the operation of global foreign exchange market, giving a new impetus to a robust exchange rate movements.

Various territorial markets can provide the following characteristics typical of the average activity during the day.
Far East

Here, the most active transaction market conversion transactions dollar to the Japanese yen, the dollar and the deutsche mark, yen and marks to the dollar and the Australian dollar. Fluctuations in exchange rates at this time is often negligible, but there are days when currencies, especially the dollar against the yen, commit dizzying flights. Especially when the central bank of Japan conducts monetary intervention. In Moscow at this time of night and day: before noon in Moscow, you can work with Tokyo, before lunch with Singapore.
Western Europe

In 1 0.00 Moscow time to open the market in the European finanasovyh centers Zurich, Frankfurt, Paris and Luxembourg. However, this strong dollar exchange rate movement of major currencies since the beginning 11 .00 Moscow time, when the London market opens. This continues, usually for two to three hours, after which, dealers of European banks go to dinner - lunch, a slightly reduced market activity

North America

The situation is enlivened again with the opening of the market in New York 1 6.00 Moscow time, when the morning work dealers of American banks, and returned to lunch with European dealers. Force of European and American banks about equal, so the fluctuations in the average, do not go beyond the usual European fluctuations. Nevertheless, foreign exchange dealers are eagerly awaiting the opening of nyuyorkskogo market to get fresh data on the possible movement of the course (especially if the European market has been sluggish).

However, after the closure of the European market (about 1 9-20 pm Moscow time), aggressive American banks, left alone to "thin" market, can lead to dramatic changes in the exchange value of the dollar against other currencies.



Approximately:

Japan 03:00-09:30

Continental Europe 09:30-1 6:00

UK 11 :30-1 8:30

USA 1 7:30-00:30

George Soros


George Soros
1930


Born in Hungary, George Soros has learned all their survival instincts from his father during the German occupation in World War II. They were Jews, so the father dostaval false documents and found the place where they can hide. This was a man worthy of respect in the First World War he was taken prisoner by Russian and later escaped from prison. Conclusion Soros: "law-abiding is a dangerous addiction, to survive, it is necessary to circumvent the law." And he acknowledged that it did not accept the rules imposed by others. He was accused of going beyond the limits of fair play in trade and stocks, and currencies.

Embarrassed the Communist regime, established after the Second World War, in 1947, Soros moved to Britain where he studied at the London School of Economics. After working for some time, commercial, he found a job in a financial institution. While Soros has got some experience in arbitration, it is mainly engaged in boring office work, not glittering, and with the blessing of the company, resigned. Its purpose was the New York, but he could not get a work visa, because I was too young to be an expert in any field. This was a mandatory requirement for entry into the United States. Therefore, it was "bypassed" the law and get a formal inquiry, which alleged that the arbitration experts to be young, because they die young, and the government vpustilo it.

In the final analysis, Soros founded his own hedge funds. His investment methods ranged from fundamental research to pure instinct. Soros once said: "... I suffered from back pain. I used the start of acute pain as a signal that in my portfolio that it was not true." This was the more pain in his back - to $ 10,000 invested Soros in 1969, turned in more than 2.8 million dollars in 1988. About Sorose say that he has three technology investment:

1. Start small. If things go, build a great position ...
2. Market stupid, so do not try to be vseveduschim ...
3. Speculator must first determine the level of risk to which he is ready to go. "

Some understanding of what can go wrong, Soros gives diagnostiruya collapse in 1987, in the essay "After the Black Monday." One of his conclusions: the management of monetary policy, a critical global issue in preventing the collapse of the stock market and recessions.

By Site
www.bull-n-bear.ru

The fate of the euro is decided in Washington

Americans are able to trigger off a new single European currency

At the end of the week's finance ministers and central bank heads of the Group of Seven meeting began in the city of Boca Reyton (Florida, USA). It has long been this kind of activities did not cause so much interest throughout the world. In mid-January rate of the single European currency reached a record level: the price of 1 euro reached U.S. $ 1.29 since the beginning of the year is not a day passes without a statement of the United States or European countries, which raises the question of the exchange rate of the euro.

European countries are seeking to halt the prolonged rise of their currencies, which threatens the fragile economic recovery. But no one can delete the unsuccessful outcome of meetings of the Group of Seven in Florida, where between Americans, Europeans, Japanese and spread this battle on the issue of exchange controls. The failure of the meeting could lead to a new upsurge of the European currency.

The most clear policy on exchange controls until Japan. The Government does not wish to increase yen rate, and therefore, in January, the Bank of Japan currency intervention has spent more than $ 60 billion That strategy led to a massive attack of relative stability.

Meanwhile, the U.S. position is hypocritical. Officials in Washington say that the "strong dollar is in the interest of the American economy." President George W. Bush and Treasury Secretary John Snow rub on it when they ask questions about the dollar. However, no one drew attention to the wording of a ritual devoid of meaning.

Over the past few months, Washington has never expressed regret over the falling dollar. Instead, the U.S. Treasury has repeatedly stressed the advantages of a weak dollar for the export performance and economic growth. And, more importantly, urged not to interfere in the situation on the currency market, which according to him, he should govern the dollar.

Observing that the position of the U.S. administration, the operators of the financial markets before the end of January were convinced that the decline in the value of the dollar is in the interest of the White House, which promotes even fall in its currency. However, that confidence has been seriously rasshatana the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve Alan Grinsptnom, which is January 28, announced his intention to raise interest rates. Back in August last year, FHC has promised to maintain interest rates at the same level over a long period. " Now, apparently, the attitude of this institution has changed.

At the height of the campaign the U.S. administration must choose between another decline in the dollar and an attempt to stabilize, which would postpone raising interest rates for the period, which comes after the presidential election. This uncertainty in the position of Washington can ease the task of the Europeans who want to speak with one voice in the matter of the ratio of the euro and the dollar.

January 19 in Brussels, eurozone finance ministers, consolidated the position of President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Jean-Claude Trichet, and expressing concern about the "disproportionate fluctuations in the exchange rate", expressed the need to "stabilize". They also stressed that "the long-term strategy remains unchanged: the euro must keep its value over the medium to long term, according to its economic foundation." This statement is totally eurozone finance ministers reiterated the view of Jean-Claude Trichet announced a few days earlier, in Frank-furte at Main).

Nevertheless, among European governments, there is no unified position on the sharp rise of the euro. Some emphasize the negative side, the other, by contrast, insists on the advantages of increasing the value of European currencies. On the one hand, the rise of the euro is helping the ECB to limit inflation. On the other hand, the euro appreciation would adversely affect the performance of economic growth and ranking of European governments.

It seems paradoxical that the European countries has been able to speak with one voice on the euro. Indeed, just two months ago, EU countries have experienced deep divisions caused by disagreement over the Stability Pact in the euro zone and in fiscal policy. Yet, outwardly apparent firm position of European countries on the euro is actually unsustainable.

At the outset, leading bankers very skeptical about the ability of governments to influence the situation on the currency market. In their view, only Jean-Claude Trichet could maintain stability in international financial markets. Speeches same politicians in Europe only negate the positive effect of the statement by the head of the European Central Bank. Another problem is that the governments of the eurozone and the Central Bank could not agree on how to be the euro. According to the majority of European Finance Ministers, the European currency entered a "danger zone". However, the ECB did not think so: his head said that in the course of the ratio of 1 euro = 1.25 U.S. is not unusual and even more alarming.

In short, the ECB's fear of a rapid fall of the euro, while European governments just do everything possible to ensure the devaluation of the currency. In this situation, when each side is trying to prevent the infringement of their prerogatives, even the slightest rise of the euro could "blow up" demonstration consensus.

Recall that immediately after the statement by the Minister of Finance of France Francis measure that on 19 January at a meeting in Brussels, "the question was raised about lowering interest rates in Europe, followed by the immediate reaction of Jean-Claude Trichet. In his statement of 26 January the head of the ECB said that at that meeting "on interest rates was not discussed."

Against this background, the failure of the upcoming meeting of Group of Seven in Florida, no doubt, will lead to greater differences between the ECB and European governments. Even if the governments of the euro would increase the pressure on the ECB, the latter will be a long fight before intervened in the currency market to hinder the appreciation of the euro.

In Europe, in fact there is no clear policy on the currency market. The only chance for the euro zone is to Americans - the Bush administration and the Fed - came to the conclusion that the dollar has declined too. Thus, the fate of European unity was in the hands of Washington.

By Le Monde (translation Inopressa.Ru)