Thursday, July 16, 2009

The Outputs that are used in Trading Systems

The result of any trade depends on the way out. If the entry was good, a bad way, the trade is likely to yield loss. At the same time, even if it fails the entrance, but well delivered feet can make a profit. It exits, rather than inputs, determine the impact of trade. This conclusion is easily proved. Take any strategy for the entrances and exits, try to experiment with.

You will quickly find that the results can vary even with very small changes in output. In fact, often difficult to tell whether the input is good - because of the fact that the outcome is highly dependent on the output. Because of the bad outputs good entry may seem a misnomer, and, conversely, a good solution could give us a bad input as good.

When testing the effectiveness of methods of entry well at first to withdraw from trades only after a certain number of bars. If you are going to do something more complex, then very soon you find that you actually testing their outputs rather than inputs. If you are going to change the terms of exits when trying to work out a strategy for entry, the results will vary so much that it would be impossible to make any reliable conclusions about the effectiveness of strategies for entry. In combination with the correct output almost any entry strategy would look perfectly. In combination with poor release this same strategy, the entrance will look awful.

The purpose of the entrance is the initiation of trade in the right direction. To test the effectiveness of the entrance, you can simply measure what percentage of cases initiated trades in the right direction. For example, input "A", with 60% of profitable trades after 5 days is better than the input "B", with only 45% of profitable trades after 5 days.

There is no need to make conclusions about the risk or profitability in the selection of the best entry. What if input "A" had losses, and input "B" - profit? Does entry "A" is better? The answer - "Yes", since the aim of the entrance is not making a profit, but to initiate trades in the right direction. After that, everything else depends on the way out. Enter "B" just lucky to make more money because of the specific release date, which we chose.

We can easily change our way out, and found that the entry "A" will give more profit than the "B", as he initiates a trade in the right direction more often. To maximize the profit it is necessary to combine the correct input with the correct solution.

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