Sunday, April 5, 2009

U.S. ready to replace

World crisis updated the creation of a new international currency

One of the world economic crisis was the lack of traditional reserve currencies, primarily the U.S. dollar and to a lesser extent, the euro. The reason for this phenomenon is obvious to all - the United States became a country that actually initiated the beginning of the financial crisis, then quickly turned to the economic. Of course, many states that had kept a large portion of their reserves in currencies, namely the U.S., there was a desire to protect their savings and withdraw them from the dollar segment. However, it continues to impede and obstruct the status of the dollar as the currency of international settlements, which makes use of it, even those that do not wish to do so.

According to most analysts, the Federal Reserve System, the Ministry of Finance of the U.S. and much of the American banking system, are responsible for the crisis. Over the last decade, fiscal policy was aimed at reduction of the cost of money increases the money supply. In order to use the enormous mass of "cheap money" thrown at the financial market, the economy is artificially stimulated consumption of increasing the money supply through development loans, are often not provided with any potential income or real savings.

In turn, this led to the fact that the market began to emerge "bubbles", especially regarding traditional investment - real estate, shares of low-cost companies. Much of the phenomenal growth of the Russian economy over the past eight years has been associated not only with high oil prices and rising production since 1998, but the spread in Russia, "cheap" credit money received from abroad. But forever is not such a practice continue to artificial rise in empty space had to stop. As a result, the world's financial system was paralyzed, and the painful phenomenon, it immediately spread to the real sector of the economy that are directly dependent on lending.

That is the financial game of American government, and therefore almost irresponsible, even before the U.S. government, the financial system put at risk the development of all countries in the world. America has once again tried to solve their problems at the expense of others. Was not very good, as the crisis struck, and the American economy. But not all opportunities for fraud have been exhausted. It is no coincidence that as soon as it became apparent that the global crisis is very serious and likely to last several years, there were plans for a special American currency "Ameri, or the division of dollars in circulation in the United States and around the world. But even the additional issuance of unsecured dollars could do a very negative impact on other countries and their citizens, who use dollars.

According to independent observers, by the end of 2008 less than 4% of the dollar money supply were the U.S. gold reserves. In the case of a sudden and rapid exchange of dollars for амеро by strict rules setting out the privileges of sharing in the United States, Canada and Mexico and the overvalued exchange rate for the other States, the countries of the world will remain with the "exported" from the United States inflation and with substantially reduced capital. In fact, such a plan - an attempt to rob the entire world to a greater or lesser extent to reduce the financial obligations to the States United States and individuals abroad who are holders of U.S. currency and, accordingly, may at any time to present a claim on its security.

Such requirements or even avoidance of the use of the dollar as the currency for the storage of reserves or international payments by a few large countries would be a very heavy blow to the American economy, which it could not survive, the more it is dangerous in terms of financial and economic crisis. So, despite all the statements from the American leadership and the leading financiers of the lack of plans to manipulate the dollar, we can not completely deny the possibility of any radical measures from the United States. What they are not addressed now, yet still retained some prospects for a relatively painless way out of crisis, could become a necessity if the prolonged crisis and its impact on the American economy is increasingly negative. In fact, now the American side holds only the desire to continue to benefit from the dollar as a global reserve currency. But if the price of this desire would be sufficiently high, the United States without hesitation throw the dollar in order to save their money and keep the standard of living in the country at an acceptable level to maintain power.

As a result, some countries have already started talking about the need to establish a new world currency, which does not belong to one country and hence would be immune from attempts by the owner to solve their problems at the expense of others. Such proposals already made by Kazakhstan, Russia, and were supported by China - one of the biggest holders of dollars around the world.

The most radical option announced the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev. The new currency should be introduced for the EurAsEC member countries and should provide a stable non-cash transactions between members of this organization states. Issue, it should solely in the interest of the EurAsEC. This idea was hatched long ago the President of Kazakhstan - as far back as 2008, speaking at the opening of the 17 th session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly in Astana, Nazarbayev said that the devaluation of the dollar makes the multipolar financial system. And now, Nazarbayev turned to specific proposals, saying: "We have to move to a completely new global monetary system, which should be based on policy, with the currents of all countries, a single monetary unit of calculation. In its creation, issuance, management must involve all countries." New currency in Kazakhstan has even found the name - "Eurasia" or the "Altyn".

Suggestions of Kazakhstan in Russia felt directed not only against the dollar but also against the ruble. The world has long known the desire of Moscow to make the ruble currency for regional settlement on the territory of its own zone of influence. As a result, a few days after the statement Nazarbayev followed by the reaction of Russia with a proposal to replace the dollar of the new global reserve currency and to request the issuance of the international financial institutions. The proposals in London G-20 summit were published on 16 March at the official website of the President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev. The reform of the international monetary and financial system, Russia proposes to start with the expansion of reserve currencies on the basis of the development of regional financial centers and the creation of supra-national reserve currency, issued by international financial institutions. When the ruble to the list of regional reserve currencies that will undoubtedly lead to a significant increase of its role in the global financial system. Therefore, according to experts, the policy of the Government of the Russian Federation aimed not so much against the dollar, but in favor of the ruble, a claim to the role of a regional reserve currency.

In turn, the chairman of the People's Bank of China Zhou Syaochuan proposed to deprive the United States dollar of the international reserve currency and replace it with a new global system under the supervision of the IMF. In his statement appeared on the official site of the National Bank of China, that is the main goal is to create a reserve currency, "not tied to individual countries, and preserving stability in the long term." According to Zhou, replacing the dollar may reach SDR (Special Drawing Rights IMF), which were created by IMF in 1969 and used as units of the fund. Course SDR is determined by the value of a basket of four major currencies: U.S. dollar, euro, yen and pound sterling. They can add a currency other leading world economies, believes the head of the Chinese Central Bank.

While an increasing number of economists supported the idea of creating a new world reserve currency, which should replace the U.S. dollar, the United States are making vigorous efforts to convince the world community to force the dollar. Thus, on 24 March, U.S. President Barack Obama said that the position of the dollar is very strong and confident in the stability of the American economic system will grow. But these statements are very hollow against the backdrop of information about the real situation. According to currency strategist IHS Global Insight Yen Randolph, the pressure on the dollar strengthened in mid-year. "Increase investor anxiety over the anticipated budget deficit of U.S. $ 1 trillion. U.S., moreover, that President Barack Obama prepares to take in January a package of tax breaks in the amount of 4-6% of GDP to stimulate the economy - said Randolph. - Weakening dollar will also be supported by the difference in interest rates in favor of European currency. "

In addition to heads of White House opposition to the idea of a new world reserve currency were Finance Minister Timothy Geytner United States and head of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke. At hearings in Congress, they rejected even the possibility of discussions on this issue. It is clear that Washington is not without reason to fear that the new currency with the dollar potesnit leading positions, and thus put an end to U.S. global dominance.

Without a doubt, no matter how the events unfolded in the context of the economic crisis does not stop, Moscow need to make every possible effort to make ruble an international status, as well as an effective tool for strengthening the financial system of Russia and will defend our country from outside influence. In any case, it was understood that if the talks on the establishment of a new international currency has already begun at the level of Heads of State, sooner or later, this transition occurs.

Reserves may dry up in six months

Calculations of the Government that accumulated in the Reserve Fund of funds sufficient for at least 2-2,5 years, may not be justified. In March - the first month, when the state printed its primary «zanachku for a rainy day», the size of the Reserve Fund fell by 750 billion rubles., Or by one sixth. The crisis could lead to a deepening budget deficit, which will destroy the plans of the authorities to reduce the monthly exemptions from the fund.

The economic crisis has not only led to polutorakratnomu excess federal budget expenditures over income, but also to the need to close the hole formed in gosfinansah from the contingency fund. On Wednesday evening, the Ministry of Finance reported that in March the size of the fund fell by 750 billion rubles. - From 4,869 to 4.117 trillion. rub.

In other words, for the first month of use of the contingency fund the country declined by 15.4%, which is almost one-sixth of the previous volume. If you continue to spend its previous rate, the fund may dry up for six months.

Much economical power spent another part of the former Stabilization - National Welfare Fund (FNB). In March, its volume decreased to 85.71 billion rubles. - From 2.995 to 2.915 trillion. rub., that is about 3%.

The new version of the budget for this year's revenues projected at 6.7 trillion. rub. and expenses - 9.6 trillion. rub. To cover the deficit of $ 2.9 trillion. rub. from the contingency fund is planned to attract 2.7 trillion. rub., including 1.6 trillion. rub. - In the first half. To invest in these figures, the Government will seriously reduce the expenditure of the Reserve Fund in the coming months. While the MOF plans, which in April will be withdrawn from the fund of 600 billion, and in May - 400 billion rubles. In the future, according to government estimates, the need for fueling of the Reserve Fund should fall even more. The authorities hope that in the second half of the economy, and with it the income of revenue will start to recover, thereby reducing the current budget deficit.

However, expectations that the gap between revenue and expenditure budget will be reduced previously assumed in the calculation of rates, melting with each passing day. Two weeks ago, Vice Premier, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that the peak of the crisis is likely to move from the middle of this year, at the end or beginning of next year. Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance reported that the budget deficit in 2009 could reach 2.9 trillion is not. And more than 3331 trillion. rub. So the need for additional withdrawals from the Reserve Fund or to seek alternative sources cover the budget deficit can only increase. It is highly likely that if such a scenario, by 1 January 2010 in the Reserve Fund will be no 1867 trillion. rub. how the government plans, but much smaller. That is, a country can proest their primary zanachku faster than the government expected.

Do not especially believe in the enforceability of budget calculations, and interviewed «NG» Experts. According to chief economist FC «Opening» Danila Levchenko, a deficit budget into 2009 will be higher than projected, and then all the numbers will change for the worse.
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«Hope for the government improve the situation of the budget incomes in 2009 may be associated with some increase in world oil prices, which in the case of preserving them at current levels - about $ 50 a barrel, should lead to an increase in oil and gas revenues», - said zamrukovoditelya Analytical Department, LLC «Sovlink» Olga Belenky. At the same time, according to her, no less important is the situation with regard to economic activity and income of companies. According to the expert, after the collapse promproizvodstva and investment in the November-January, February and March rate of fall slowed. «However, the decline is not over. Moreover, if the economy pulls before consumer demand, in February he had begun to decline, as decline in real income, only partly offset by spending personal savings », - says Belenky. «Crisis measures taken by the State may withhold from the bankruptcy of major companies and banks, but did not reach the primary objective - do not support the final demand in the economy. And without that budget revenues may extend only to external factors, such as energy prices, the prices of which we do not

Oil carried optimistic leap

Yesterday, oil prices have increased significantly, this is the greatest growth over the past three weeks. Prices of oil futures climbed to nearly 9%, and established on the basis of trades at the mark above $ 52 a barrel.

According to experts, the rise in oil prices associated with the expectations coming stabilize the world economy, after the leaders of the "big twenty agreed crisis package to stimulate the economy the volume of $ 1 trillion, as well as the weakening euro.

Experts are expected in the future, reducing supply, as the company reduced the development of new deposits, as OPEC is fulfilling its promise to reduce production. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting pledged to reduce the quota to 4.2 million barrels per day in the hope of an artificial rise in prices. According to experts, the organization has not completed the task, but they note a significant decline in shipments from the exporting countries.

It is estimated the company Oil Movements, it is expected that the supply of raw materials OPEC countries will drop by another 960 thousand barrels per day until mid-April. Oil companies and the ministers of the Persian Gulf countries warned that the fall in energy prices led to lower investment in a new production. "If prices stay low for a long time in the future growth of supply will not be possible, leading to another increase in prices", - said Qatari Energy Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah. He said prices should podrasti to a level that supports investment. He called the $ 50 a barrel "pragmatic cost.

Against the backdrop of a significant increase in the prices of oil derivatives are also much energy went up. Thus, on the New York Stock Exchange price of RBOB gasoline rose by 7.1%, and the price of fuel oil - by 6,9%.

Head of analytical department of the CC "Alpari" Yegor Susin told "Ytru" that the fundamental objective preconditions for the rise in oil prices is almost non-existent. "Expectations that the economic situation improves, gives market participants a reason to hope for a recovery in demand for resources that provokes buying futures in oil by investment funds ... In view of the financial system free of serious capital, the impact of speculation on the markets can be quite strong. If oil prices can overcome the level of $ 55 per barrel, we can see new growth and the purchase of up to $ 70 a barrel, but it will not be long-term restoration of the market, "- he said.

Michael Zanozin, an analyst for the oil and gas company "Uralsib", said "Ytru" that, in general, in the year the price will be in the region of $ 47. Regarding the coming weeks, after the fixing of profit growth will be, due to the fact that oil reserves in the United States are at very high level since 1993.

Premier of Iraq will ask the Russian companies to return to the country

During the upcoming visit to Moscow, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will ask the Russian companies to return to Iraq. The statement was made by a representative Iraqi government, Ali Dabbag. According to him, the objective of the negotiations in Moscow, will attract investors in Iraq. Dabbag stressed that Russia was one of the main economic partners of Iraq over many years. With the help of Russian specialists in the country has implemented a number of major projects in the electricity, oil and gas, irrigation and agriculture. After joining the U.S. troops in Iraq and the deterioration of the situation, Russian firms have withdrawn from the country, and almost all work stopped, Ali said Dabbag. Iraqi Premier Nuri al-Maliki during a foreign trip next week plans to visit Paris, Moscow and London.

Most banks will require additional capitalization

The situation in the banking sector will deteriorate, almost all banks will require additional capitalization. With such a forecast was made today, Assistant to the President Arkady Dvorkovich. According to him, the delay of credit continue to grow. At the same time in government thinking on how to make the rate on the mortgage does not exceed 15 percent. It is possible that this will be running a special program, said Dvorkovich.



utro@utro.ru (Department of Information)
News comes from utro.ru

The second wave of the crisis has been canceled

The second wave of crisis otmenyaetsyaVtoroy wave of the financial crisis will not happen. In this I am sure the Chairman of the Central Bank Sergey Ignatiev. In his view, the most acute phase passed, and in the coming months, will resume "even and slow, but growth in the economy." He made this statement today at the congress of the Association of Russian Banks (ARB). Thus, the head of the Central Bank did not agree with the opinion of the Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin, who is considering the possibility of a second wave of crisis in the banking system caused by non-credit.

As found with Ignatyev, the problem is indeed serious, but in his view, the banks operate reasonably well and quite quickly build up reserves for possible losses on loans. " In addition, growth of overdue debts are based on extrapolation of past trends. At the same time, the level of arrears is directly dependent on the financial situation in the real sector of the economy. Implicitly, it is assumed that the financial situation of the real sector would continue to deteriorate, but this is not true, said the head of Bank of Russia.

Sergei Ignatiev recalled that "world oil prices stabilized at a level higher than our forecast of $ 41, as well as complete devaluation of the ruble, which is unlikely to go beyond the upper bound of the corridor bivalyutnoy established his authority. "Russian producers have received a competitive advantage compared to foreign. From November 2008 to March 2009 the real effective exchange rate decreased by 13.6%. The benefits to banks of foreign exchange as compared to lending to the real sector is questionable. The situation with ruble liquidity normalized. Interest rates on the interbank market declined. And finally, last: Government measures to support the real sector will necessarily effect "- has assured the head of Tsetrobanka. He also reported on the possibility to reduce the refinancing rate from the current level of 13% as the slowing of inflation.


utro@utro.ru (Peter Stravinsky)
News comes from utro.ru

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Financial News & Opinions 04 Apr 2009

Video: The Week Ahead

Posted: 04 Apr 2009 12:00 PM PDT

The stories, data, and stocks that may have the greatest impact during the next trading week. … [visit site to read more]

Relaxation Of “Mark-To-Market” Valuation Rules - Let’s Play Pretend!

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 09:11 PM PDT

When elementary school kids want to escape the confines of their circumstances they pretend to be pirates, princesses, and Jedi knights. Now, with the relaxation of “mark to market” valuation rules announced yesterday by the accounting trade’s self-regulatory body, our bankrupt financial institutions can escape their own reality by pretending to be solvent. The unraveling of our fairytale economy over the last few months has not yet convinced us that the time has come to put away childish … [visit site to read more]

G-20 Statement & My Interpretation - Part 2

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 08:55 PM PDT

In a previous post, I went over the first half of the G-20 statement with my impressions of what it means. Here is the second half.

Strengthening our global financial institutions

17. Emerging markets and developing countries, which have been the engine of recent world growth, are also now facing challenges which are adding to the current downturn in the global economy. It is imperative for global confidence and economic recovery that capital continues to flow to them. This will … [visit site to read more]

G-20 Statement & My Interpretation - Part 1

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 08:54 PM PDT

The following is the text of the Statement from the Group of 20 summit. I will translate and interpret it point by point.

1. We, the Leaders of the Group of Twenty, met in London on 2 April 2009.

2. We face the greatest challenge to the world economy in modern times; a crisis which has deepened since we last met, which affects the lives of women, men, and children in every country, and which all countries must join together to resolve. A global crisis requires a global … [visit site to read more]

Projecting The Bull Flag High Of April 3

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 08:40 PM PDT

If you see a potential Bull Flag setting up, do you know how to project the Profit Target? Let’s use Friday’s intraday action and the bull flag that set-up mid-day to learn how to find the price projection point of a Measured Move or Bull Flag.

I described earlier how to use the Fibonacci Price Projection tool in TradeStation (which is the same in other programs I’m sure) to Project a “Measured Move” off a Flag and I wanted to show today’s action as an example. Please reference … [visit site to read more]

Daily Forex Commentary: British Pound Moves Higher Against US Dollar

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 08:40 PM PDT

Euro

The euro came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today (Friday) as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3515 level and was supported around the US$ 1.3220 level. U.S. March non-farm payrolls printed at -663,000 and the unemployment rate reached 8.5%, a new 25-year high,. Average hourly earnings were up +0.2% and January’s non-farm payrolls tally was revised for the worse by 86,000 jobs. The U.S. economy has now shed more than five million jobs since the U.S. … [visit site to read more]

An Inside Look Of The Ferrari Factory

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 08:34 PM PDT

Since childhood, I have always been curious to know the inside of the Ferrari factory, to see more closely as their famous cars are manufactured. I have to admit that even now, the appetite to know more about this place still alive. I think all of you agree that Ferrari cars have something special and exclusive that makes the difference from others expensive cars. Located just outside of the small town fo Maranello, in Italy, this factory has been recognized over the recent years with … [visit site to read more]

What G20 Meeting Means for Dollar ETF

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 08:30 PM PDT

During the G20 summit meeting, concern over the strength of U.S. dollar, along with subsequent exchange traded funds (ETFs), has come up in light of voluminous stimulus packages being put into global economies. … [visit site to read more]

As Nest Eggs Decline, Darkness Falls On Twilight Years

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 08:30 PM PDT

For many people, the following images represent the dreamy existence they look forward to when their working lives are over:

(Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2007/jun/27/guardiansocietysupplement3)

(Source: http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3512/3247847941_61ab66cfde.jpg)

(Source: http://www.missionlagunahomes.com/account/acc_files/10000/4258/Golfers(5).jpg)

(Source: http://www.cypressglenretirementcommunity.com/twocouples1.JPG)

But a lifestyle like this depends … [visit site to read more]

The Markets Are At A Crossroad But There Are Still Opportunities

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 08:22 PM PDT

There are signs of both a potential market recovery (the beginning of a larger bull rally), and signs that this recent 20%+ run-up was nothing more than a bear market rally.
The good news is that there will be plenty of opportunities going forward, regardless of which of the above scenarios plays out.
Bull Market Rally Scenario
The move that we have recently seen, i.e., 24.82% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), 26.82% in the S&P 500 (^GSPC), and 28.26% in the Nasdaq … [visit site to read more]

What’s Next For Battered Financial ETFs?

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 08:12 PM PDT

It’s been a strong month for the financial sector and its exchange traded funds (ETFs), giving the heavily bruised sector a much-needed roar.

Since the March 9 low, financials have rebounded more than 25%. Consider the Financial Select SPDR (XLF), which has exploded from its close on March 9 at $6.26, gaining 34%. To make it even sweeter, the ETF has crossed its 50-day moving average, despite being down 41.3% year to date.

Unfortunately, the financials aren’t in the clear. … [visit site to read more]

Friday’s Market Recap: Stocks Up, Google, Twitter, Bank Of America, US Airways

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 08:07 PM PDT

The markets inched higher today as the S&P (^GSPC) was up 0.94%. The Dow (^DJI) and NASDAQ (^IXIC) were both up, closing at 8017.59 and 1621.87 respectively. Both gold and oil had bad days, gold settled at $897.30 while oil settled at $52.51. The price of the 10 year treasury fell over a dollar, and closed at a yield of 2.9%.

In tech news today, it was reported that Google (GOOG) is interested in partnering or acquiring Twitter. Twitter is a social media website … [visit site to read more]

Adjusted For The Labor Force, Initial And Continuing Jobless Claims Are Far Below The 1970s And 1980s

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 05:02 PM PDT

With March employment data now available, the graph above of Initial Jobless Claims as a Percent of the Labor Force (1970-2009) has been updated to reflect the March labor force of 154,048,000, and the March average for initial unemployment claims (650,937 for the 4-week moving weekly average). That measure of initial jobless claims adjusted for the size of the labor force shows that we are currently above the levels of the last two recessions (1990-1991 and 2001), but still far below … [visit site to read more]

How High Can Gasoline Prices Go This Summer?

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 05:01 PM PDT

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the national average price of gasoline (regular, unleaded) reached $2.05 per gallon last week - crossing the $2 a gallon level for the first time since Nov’08. Current gasoline prices are more than 26% above their late Dec’08 levels. Given their critical role in the consumer-driven U.S. economy, gasoline prices are of concern to a lot of people.

So what is behind the recent momentum in gasoline prices? And should we brace ourselves … [visit site to read more]

Video: 04/03 Dell Inc. Orders More Job Cuts

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 06:41 PM PDT

PC maker Dell Incorporated announced today that they are looking to cut even more jobs from their assembly plant in North Carolina. … [visit site to read more]

Video: 04/03 Oil Prices Dip On Demand Concerns

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 06:14 PM PDT

Oil prices managed to slide this session as unemployment and energy demand concerns hit home. … [visit site to read more]

Video: 04/03 Euro Strengthens To Close Out The Week

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 04:40 PM PDT

The final trading session of the week within the money markets has seen the continued trend of risk appetite dominate the markets as the euro continues to strengthen. … [visit site to read more]

Video: 04/03 Job Losses Mount

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 03:58 PM PDT

Job losses skyrocket and economists expect it to get worse before it gets better. … [visit site to read more]

Video: 04/03 A Green Ending For The Asian Markets

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 03:32 PM PDT

The major Asian/Pacific markets managed to rise this past trading session to close out the week in the green. … [visit site to read more]

Video: 04/03 RIMM Does Its Research And Surges During The 4Q

Posted: 03 Apr 2009 03:29 PM PDT

BlackBerry handset maker Research in Motion announced that its 4Q profits rose to exceed analyst expectations and therefore send shares of the company soaring this session. … [visit site to read more]