Saturday, January 30, 2010

Impuls MT4 Indicator


Indicator of A. Elder - pulse system, see lit-ru "Trading with Dr. Elder." No game system, green - buy, red - Cell, but the system of censorship, the author details, see also "Videoseminars with Dr. Elder."

The indicator draws three lines of the histogram:

* Red - ban the game to improve, with the ability to lock in profits.
* Green - game ban for a fall, with the ability to lock in profits.
* Gray - lifting the ban.

Indications of the histograms are based on the values of two indicators - the SS and MACD. SS is a momentum, MACD - because of price movement. If they are directed to one side, the bar of the histogram or green - if they grow, or red - if they fall off, otherwise the bar of the histogram - seryy.V code lines commented out. Using mandatory, together with other indicators.


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impuls.mq4

Dorsey Inertia MT4 Indicator


Inertia indicator is based on the concept of physics. Inertia or sluggishness in the body based on resistance to change direction or speed with which a body moves.

Dorsey argues that the trend is a result of inertia of the market. It is necessary to invest much more energy to change the current trend of energy needed to maintain the current trend.
The trend is therefore measures of market inertia.

Dorsey argues that the volatility is the simplest and most accurate measure of inertia. Inertia is based on Relative volatility Index (RVI) indicators smoothed using linear regression.

Positive momentum indicates that the long-term trend is positive and vice versa.

Positive inertia
Inertia> 50
Negative inertia
Inertia <50


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Dorsey Inertia.mq4

Gann rvm v4 MT4 Indicator


Indicator Gann rvm paints a channel through which we can determine the trend in the market. The indicator has settings that can help you configure chuvsvvitelnost indicator.
If the price is above the channel Gunn - then rynkepreobladaet bullish trend. If the price is below the channel Gunn - then the market bearish trend. If the price is inside the channel Gunn - a market dominated by fletovoe state.


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Gann rvm v4.mq4

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell by 7,6%

Sales of new homes in the U.S. declined in December at 7.6% to 342 thousand in connection with the expiration of a popular government program to provide tax relief for home buyers.

Sales of new homes in December were the lowest since March. Compared with the same period last year, sales of homes fell by about 23%.

Note that economists had expected a small growth rate in December to mark 365 thousand

The number of unsold homes on the market fell in December at 1.7% to 231 thousand

Eurozone consumer confidence index remained unchanged in January

The index of consumer confidence (Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence) was -16 points in January, as well as in the previous month, the European Commission. Predicted to increase in the rate to -15 points.

At the same time, the index of economic confidence Eurozone (Euro-Zone Economic Confidence) increased from 94.1 points to 95.7 points in January while the forecast decline to 92.3 points.

Indicator of confidence in the business environment (Business Climate Indicator) was -1.12 in January as compared to -1.30 points in December.

Unemployment in Germany rose for the first time in June 2009

According to the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany, seasonally adjusted number of unemployed increased by 6 000 in January. At the same time, economists predicted increase in the rate of 17 000. Recall that in December the number of unemployed in Germany decreased by 3 000.

Unemployment, taking into account seasonal factors was 8.2% in January compared with 8.1% a month earlier. Index value corresponds to analysts. It is worth noting that this is the first increase in unemployment over the past seven months, which is associated with slow economic recovery and strong January frosts.

The euro fell against the Dollar

Euro fell against its U.S. counterpart, the Asian session today, reaching the lowest level since June 14. Now go out data on unemployment in Germany is projected to rise.

Euro / dollar fell below the psychologically important level of 1.4000, bargaining is currently around 1.4005. The breakthrough level of 1.4000 may cause further growth of the dollar in the medium term, however, according to indicators of momentum, the pair traded in the over-sold. Pare supports at 1.3945 and resistance at 1.4225.

Pair Pound / dollar consolidated in the range 1.6250 - 1.6120, and currently is trading around 1.6180. Pare supported at 1.6150, along with the resistance 1.6265, and the four-momentum indicators show downward movement today.

The dollar rose against the Japanese yen, reaching 90.38. Today, the resistance can be found at 90,45 and 88,60 in the support. In accordance with the rates of stochastic, we expect that the couple will show further growth and breach the resistance level will result in a couple of levels 90,80.

ZKB: dollar / franc could continue upward movement

As the currency analysts Zuercher Kantonalbank, pair dollar / franc overcame resistance in the 1.0505/15 area, and now may well continue its upward movement. According to the bank's strategy, the dollar / franc could rise to the level of 1.0600. The bank noted interest in buying a pair of 1.0480/90. At the moment pair dollar / franc traded at 1.0533.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Retail sales according to the Confederation of British manufacturers fell in January predicted

According to the British Confederation of Industrialists (CBI), the balance of total retail sales (Retail sales volume balance) was -8% in January. Recall that in December the figure stood at 13%, and in January, is expected to fall to 11%.

Projected CBI, the situation stabilized in February, with the balance of retail sales improved to -1%. In general, it is expected that recovery will occur uncertain and weak during 2010.

Wholesale sales fell sharply in January (-38%), but is likely to increase in February (the forecast +9%).

British Industrialists Confederation represents the interests of some 240 000 organizations, which employs one third of the workforce of the private sector. The January survey was based on survey of 140 firms.

U.S. consumer confidence rose to 16-month high

Increased in January, optimism about the current economic situation in the United States led to the growth index of consumer confidence to record levels over the past 16 months.

The index of consumer confidence rose in January to a mark of 55.9 compared with 53.6 in December. Rate was at a record high in September 2008, and its growth continues for the third consecutive month.

Nevertheless, the index of consumer confidence in the U.S. is still at a very low level, considerably below the average value of 95.0.

Support the current situation index rose in January to 25.0 compared with 20.2 the previous month. Index of consumer expectations have increased from 75,9 to 76,5.

Housing prices in the U.S. fell by 0,2% in November, according to Case-Shiller index

Published Standard & Poors index of house prices Case-Shiller, which includes data on the 20 largest cities in the U.S. fell in November to 0.2% compared to the previous month.

At the same time housing prices rose in November in five of the twenty cities.

In annual terms, the price index for housing fell by 5,3%. It was expected that prices will be lower by 4,9% compared with last year.

According to the index Case-Shiller, home prices in 20 major U.S. cities fell by 32.6% compared with the last peak price.

Dear Wall Street: we're sorry

We inadvertently gave the financial industry trillions of dollars to support their balance sheets and markets. We did this even though the major banks and brokerage houses simply do not need or do not want this help. Everything was bad in September 2008, but we had to go and stick his nose into the world of high finance.

Now we are doing even worse, trying to tell them how much to pay people what risks they can take themselves and what business kosher. Suddenly, we felt that understands the business of banking is better than the bankers themselves. We know who they should lend. We have a firm idea of what they are doing with our money.

We regret this.

We are sorry that we want to close monitoring of our money supply. We regret that we want to have state protection for our deposits, our current accounts, mortgages and credit cards. Maybe we look like simpletons, but we feel nervous when they lose jobs and are forced to sell our homes at a discount to eat.

It's our fault.

The fact is that Wall Street masterfully handled the bills. And we must recognize that the fee for an overdraft, rising interest rates and the collapse in the mortgage market - it's our fault, not the banks.

Funny, but Blankfeyn Lloyd (Lloyd Blankfein), executive director of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will be forced to continue to apologize for the success of his company. He said that in view of the retrospective approach, Goldman would have done much differently. Goldman took the wrong position. However, during these comments on January 14, he said of the bets placed by Goldman against toxic mortgage securities, which they sold to customers. In the end, is the work of the lord.

Lloyd Blankfein, Reuters photo

I think I speak for all when I write this: Sorry Lloyd, I do not know how we came to such confusion. I think because they pay you big money ($ 68.5 million in 2007).

But, please understand, we had the best intentions, when we interfere with our "nalogoplatelschikovskoy" help.

When your balance sheets look like, if you have problems, you had been developed and introduced Paulson's plan to $ 700 billion.

We just want to support you temporary credit facilities secured by a pledge, a program designed to give the industry $ 200 billion in loans for "top-rated" credit cards, small business, student and auto loans.

$ 30 billion of public-private investment programs were intended only to ease the burden of bad assets on your balance sheet. When this program is no longer look so promising, we just tried to let you get rid of it, changing the accounting rules, which allow you to self assess the value of the junk.

When you are not able to issue debt, we told the federal deposit insurance corporation, the organization responsible for niche stores, take in ensuring your bonds. You took this without much enthusiasm. 84 bond issue to $ 309 billion have been implemented in the program. Citigroup Inc. issued, $ 64 billion. Goldman issued a $ 21 billion. Bank of America Corp. issued $ 44 billion.

We know that you have done this only to make us feel better.

And when it does not work, we simply told the Fed to buy an unlimited number of mortgage loans and pass one of your partners, American International Group Inc. $ 182 billion as the credit line.

How such actions could be construed as support for banks, despite the fact that they continued to bet on their own money on their own trading platforms, hedge funds and private equity funds - remains a mystery.


Bonuses for the hack
In comparison with the pressure on your bonus, all the above - just child's play. In Goldman average bonus per employee is $ 460,000, only slightly more than 9 times higher than the average income in the United States. Sorry, but not everyone is able to buy Bugatti Veyron, even used, for their pennies. It's so much to promote the automobile industry.

In retrospect, all that money to save, were probably intended for the payment of bonuses on Wall Street. Without such a serious cash, your bankers, probably would prefer to switch to more lucrative jobs elsewhere, for example, in baseball big leagues, or would play the lottery. They would not be aimed at stabilizing the financial system, and subsequent problems - it's our fault for having confidence in you. I understand, we do not pay big money for inference.

No, just cut our retirement accounts «401K», our individual retirement savings and, perhaps, if lucky, our homes. We are too dense to see how the bullet and blast our financial system, and taxpayers can never repay you for what we have experienced over the past two years.

So, Wall Street, excuse us for molestation. Forgive us, and Paul Volcker, a desire to return to boring old banking system. Forgive the sarcasm. And above all, forgive us for our gullibility.



MarketWatch
January 26

Mizuho expects further decline of the euro / yen

The Japanese yen continued today to take advantage of currency-seekers, and the recent weakening of the euro amid worries about the debt of Greece, together with the general trend away from the risk of enabling it to continue to rise against European currencies, resulting in early European session, the euro / yen has set a new nine-month minimum at 125.23. Now couple restored, however, according to currency analysts Mizuho, decline may continue. The bank believes that if the closing weeks of the euro / yen below 125.65, which is 50% Fibonacci Retracement, bearish momentum increased. As a strategy the bank preferred to sell at the most favorable rate, reinforcing the position at 126.50, with a stop above 128.55 and 124.45 short-term goals and 122.45. Currently, the euro / yen is trading at around 126.01.

SEB recommends buying the British Pound

According to currency analysts SEB, investors should buy the British currency. The Bank recognizes that the British pound has important long-term goals, but the combination of stronger data in the first and second quarters of this year, and a large amount of short positions, stackable currently in the pound, may be key to improving its dynamics in the near future. As noted in the bank, a breakthrough level stg0.8650 in a pair euro / pound will lead to the absorption stops. Bank strategists believe that by the end of the first quarter of 2010 euro / pound will fall to a level of 0.85. Now the euro / pound is trading at around 0.8661. In addition to selling the euro / pound, the bank also recommend buying the British pound against the Canadian dollar in anticipation of weakening of the Canadian currency.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

RSI STO WPR OBOS Zone3c MT4 Indicator


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RSI STO WPR OBOS Zone3c.mq4

Multi RSI AM MT4 Indicator


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Multi RSI AM.mq4

IBS RSI CCI v3 MT4 Indicator


Modification forex indicator WKBIBS, was added two lines of RSI and CCI, now to him do not need to load the terminal indicator IBS, a description within the code.

Three methods of calculating IBS, RSI, CCI - all equal in their handling, they all have a revolution calculating the coefficient of relativity, and applied price (for IBS is not a meaningful option, but it stands for the symmetry parameters).

Drawing lines is the average of the three IBS, RSI, CCI. Inside, both direct and inverted, can, in turn, to turn one of the techniques, they are independent of both the revolution and on relativity.

Just across the line can be moved Shift (Shift can not be negative).

"variant_1" manages the options calculated at 1 or 2. The default is 2 -> "variant_1 = false".

"positive" controls mirroring. The default is normal mapping -> "positive = true".


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IBS RSI CCI v3.mq4

I Profit MT4 Indicator


This indicator shows profit / loss account in the points, currency and percentage (by beginning of period)

Profit / loss from your account
from Today
the last 4 days
the week, month, quarter, year

Parameters

* EiPercent = 5
only refers to the percentage of output indicator!
0 = from the beginning
1 = At the beginning of the day
2 = At the beginning of this week
3 = At the beginning of this month
4 = At the beginning of this quarter
5 = At the beginning of this year
* The following parameters are for position and appearance of the output on the chart
* EiOffsetY = 30
* EiStepY = 12
* EiX1Row = 3
* EiX2Row = 165
* EiX3Row = 240
* EiX4Row = 350
* Color = Gray ecText
* Color = green ecProfit
* Color = firebrick ecLoss


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I Profit.mq4

Daily Data v03 MT4 Indicator


Daily data is a simple tool to show useful information in your trading. It is simply a tool that does not take too much space, looks rather good, and is fairly useful
when placed on daily charts this indicator shows weekly data, and when placed on weekly or monthly charts it shows monthly data.


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Daily Data v03.mq4

Channel Stoch MT4 Indicator


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Channel Stoch.mq4

Indicator of business conditions in Germany Ifo exceeded forecasts for January

Indicator of business conditions in Germany, produced by the German Ifo Institute for Economic and reflecting the perspectives of development of German and European economies, amounted to 95.8 points in January compared to 94.7 points in the previous month. However analysts predicted that figure will increase to 95.2 points.

Indicator assessment of current conditions Ifo rose in January from 90.5 points to 91.2 points in the forecast 91,3 points.

Ifo indicator of economic expectations for the reporting period amounted to 100.6 points compared with 99.1 points a month earlier. Has been predicted that the rate will not change.

Preliminary assessment of UK GDP for the 4 quarter below forecasts

According to preliminary data from the National Statistical Office, UK GDP rose by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to a decrease of 0,2% in the previous quarter. The level was below the forecast, because it was expected that GDP will grow by 0,4%.

On an annual basis has declined by 3,2% in the previous value of -5.1% and -3.0% forecast.

The volume of production increased by 0,1% in the fourth quarter compared with the fall of 0,9% in the third quarter. The volume of services increased by 0,1% during the reporting quarter, after declining by 0,2% in the previous quarter.

BBH: the dollar / yen could continue to decline

As the currency analysts Brown Brothers Harriman, decline in commodity currencies against the backdrop of speculation about further tightening of monetary policy in China, repatriation of Japanese funds from abroad and an optimistic outlook for Japanese stocks contribute to the strengthening Japanese yen. According to the Bank's strategy marks a breakthrough in a pair of 89.30 dollar / yen may lead to further growth of the Japanese currency to a level of 88.25. At the moment pair dollar / yen is trading at around 89.65.

Outrunning index GfK consumer climate in Germany fell slightly in February

Outrunning index GfK consumer climate in Germany amounted to 3.2 points in February compared with 3.4 points in the previous month. The value of the meet analysts' forecasts.

Economic index of consumer expectations fell by 0.2 points to 1.5 points in January. This is 34 points higher than the same period last year. The index of expectations for revenue for the month fell by 2,5 points to 12,5.

Disposition to purchase index rose 4.2 points to 25.4 points, apparently reflecting the impact of numerous and significant discounts on various products in the retail trade.

Sales in the secondary housing market in the U.S. fell by 16,7%

Sales in the secondary housing market in the U.S. declined in December by 16,7% to 5,45 million units, in connection with the expiry of the government program to provide tax incentives to buyers.

The fall rate exceeds the expected value of the experts. Economists predicted that in the reporting period, sales will decrease by 11% to 5.8 million compared to the same period last year sale on the secondary housing market have increased by 15%.

The average price in the secondary housing market improved in December to $ 178.3 thousand, which is 1,5% higher than in December 2008. Note that in annual terms the price of secondary housing market rose for the first time since August 2007.

Don't write Japan off. The giant is stirring

Japanese economy may give second place to China, but after several years of stagnation, it seems that the economy is ready to thoroughly shake themselves

When the car driven by young drivers, ahead of more experienced on the old, "gnashing of teeth" jalopy, the spectators throw in a slower car, only a glimpse, and the drivers themselves can only show the appropriate gesture of his thumb downward. Given that today's young racers from China, and their super-laden economy defies global recession and claim second place in the rating of Japan's largest economies, increased attention to this country quite understandable. And it's sad. Japan deserves more than a fleeting glance, and has therefore not rude gesture.

Perhaps it should be recognized that part of my regrets is the result of personal sympathies. I was a correspondent (The Economist) in Tokyo for some time in the 1980's, when it was Japan, not China, it is surprising and awe around the world. As in modern China, it was assumed that, since Japan's economy is developing rapidly, they did everything right. Since 1990, when the Tokyo stock market close to collapse, and the economy has entered a phase of stagnation, public opinion is unfolded in the opposite direction: Japan, apparently, did everything wrong.

This view was particularly evident when the West, in the manner of Japan, began to sink in the credit crisis in mid-2007. Japan became a clear example of how not to deal with the consequences of financial collapse. (Version cribs how to do better: to quickly stimulate economic growth, vigorously to print money, fast and totally punish and cleanse banks, but beware of too quickly raise taxes, so as not to stifle the recovery). It's time to look at Japan with fresh eyes. This view has shed light on the 4 main things: the moment when China will overtake Japan is not interesting to anyone but statisticians, despite all the talk, China's economic development is useful to Japan; obsession with production and ignoring the service sector - a major weakness of Japan; slowly and with a bang , but Japan still entered the path of political reform, in which lies the potential for a return to its former strength.

Statistically, it's simple. Do you remember the Germans when in 1970 Japan overtook Germany as the second largest economy in the world? With a much larger population (now 120 million against 82 million Germans), it was natural that the Japanese production will be more time to achieve the level of performance in Germany. Also with China, only more so, because its population of 1.3 billion people, which is 10 times more than in Japan. Thus, China's economy "will surpass" Japan only when their per capita income will be at least one-tenth higher than the Japanese. And if China has not kept its currency artificially cheap - he would have overtaken Japan.

Comparison of the criterion of per capita income helps to explain why Chinese is useful for overtaking Japan. Be "beat" in the neighborhood with lots of new customers - it's a great opportunity. China is already the largest trading partner of Japan, and it sells to China than to buy. If the Chinese currency will be overvalued this year, and especially if the market will set its exchange rate, terms of trade will be better than it is for Japan, as sales of goods and for services.

Japanese manufacturers are among the best in the world, even if the brands such as Panasonic, Sony and Toyota, no longer able to easily circumvent the competitors, as it was before. Industrial production provides one-fifth of Japan's GDP, against one in eight in Britain. In the meantime, those who think that Britain's salvation lies in the rise of factories, should be aware that this is the industrial strength did nothing to save Japan from nearly two decades of stagnation. Production obsession Japan has made only worse: in order to reduce labor costs, the Japanese government in 1997-2006. recite reform in order to create two-tier labor market. The second level includes the underemployed and working not under contract, they receive lower wages, fewer social guarantees and no privileges.

This group now accounts for one third of the total workforce. It is Japan's "working poor", and it is the reason why the once known egalitarian country now corresponds to the British level of income inequality. Japan is the only country in the OECD, which recorded an absolute increase in poverty over the past two decades. Meanwhile, wages are falling, and not only those working on the second level: Last Friday, the Japanese government has forecast that in 2010, nominal wages will fall, 4 th consecutive year.

What is the discrepancy between the great Chinese market and falling Japanese income? This distinction lies between corporate interests and national. Individual companies are succeeding because of low labor costs and excellent nearby market. However, the country will benefit only if it leads to a large increase in income from the parallel creation of new productive, well-paying jobs throughout the economy. The problem in Japan is that its a healthy industrial production has not crossed with a much larger service sector, which, including the private and public sectors, amounted to 70% of GDP. The government disregarded the lack of regulation in the service sector. Indeed, creating jobs for the poor, they made even worse by offering for the services sector of ultra-cheap labor.

Now the crucial issue, as well as the main reason to watch for Japan is to whether it is possible to change this situation. It is fully capable of a country that has stepped up its services sector, low-wage workers and saved his side has a huge Chinese market. To accomplish this, Japan needs a real revolution, which may well be considered the changed political environment. Five months ago, voters shifted the party that ruled the country the past 60 years by selecting the central-left in vglave with Hatoyama Yukio (Yukio Hatoyama), who has promised big changes: the restoration of the welfare state, an end to the suffocating power of bureaucracy and a more balanced relationship with the United States and China .

Can he? Last November, I had an interview with the new prime minister, and I left impressed. Though criticized for his leadership qualities are often associated with fear, like a rabbit caught in the beams of headlights - he was amazingly sincere, straight and consistent in what he was saying, like Barack Obama. Priority in his actions - this is an increase in pensions and benefits, it costs a lot of public money, and in these straitened times will be hard to persuade voters to additional costs. His party is also surrounded by scandals concerning the collection of funds only when needed public support.

The wise old tokiytsy say that in Japanese politics is only an inch forward - pitch black. Even in this case is to peer into this darkness. Something began to change in Japan, and it is not only the air flow from the Chinese surpassed racers.



The Times
January 25

Man in the News: Paul Volcker

Admittedly, Paul Volcker (Paul Volcker) there are no happier than when trout fishing in the river, away from the chaos in New York and Washington.

Then, the former Fed chairman will be happy during the long hours of counting the catch, and after, enjoy the friendly atmosphere in the company of fishermen. "While fishing, he gets a treat," - says Jim Wolfensohn (Jim Wolfensohn), former head of the World Bank, which offered Volcker work in his investment firm, when the latter was leaving the Fed. "It allows you to protect your vacation, and no one asked his opinion regarding interest rates."

Such patience is now helping a fisherman Volcker. Almost exactly a year ago, Walker presented a report in which he called for the imposition of restrictions on banks engaged in risky activities, such as its own trading operations and, thus, continue to receive support from taxpayers to deposit insurance.

The report was ignored. Although Walker has played an important role during the election campaign, Obama endorsed as an inexperienced candidate, the whole of last year, it seemed, was in the remote wilderness of political terrain as the lone defender of radical structural reform - almost like a character for ridicule.

The previous head of the Federal Reserve gave an advisory committee to his office. But the actual policy came from the Minister of Finance Tim Geithner (Tim Geithner), head of the National Economic Council, Larry Summers (Larry Summers) and the head of the White House estimated Orszaga Peter (Peter Orszag).

Nevertheless, this week, dominating the former Fed chief, stood on the side of Obama, as president, despite the reservations of some of his senior economic advisers, took advantage of what he called "rule Volcker, the essence of which is prohibited for banks to implement their own trade operations.

It was the second recent triumph Volcker. Three months ago he told his rule his longtime, loyal and patient Secretary Mrs. Anke Dening (Anke Dening). "This is truly an amazing story, who would have guessed this in 82 year," said Tim Collins (Tim Collins), a financier from Wall Street, which saw them at the meeting and noted that both were equally joyous.

For the Volcker and his followers, the return of political influence - it is only the latest episode in a long career in public service.

Born before the Great Depression, September 5, 1927, the son of an official of the city administration, Paul Volcker raised in Tenek, New Jersey. He became an ardent admirer of Brooklyn Dodgers, as former finance minister and an admirer of the same team, Nick Brady (Nick Brady), who also was seen at the dinner.

"We spent about an hour, remembering the guys who played in the World Series 1947", - says Brady.

Walker graduated cum laude from Princeton University, then continued his studies at Harvard to a specialist in public administration, during which he held practice in the Fed. A long stay in the Fed and U.S. Treasury, alternating with work in the private sector, led to his appointment as Fed Chairman Jimmy Carter (Jimmy Carter) in 1979. In this position, he became famous for the fact that inflation destroyed the 1970 cost of enormous losses in production and the number of jobs.

Enormous public figure at that time had always lived modestly. "He smoked cigars for 10 cents, flew regular flights between Washington and New York, has never enjoyed the first class - a real public servant, with his wife, who was not on the cover of the magazine and both are content with modest incomes", - said Wolfensohn.

After leaving his post as Fed chairman for more than two decades ago, Walker assumed the role of elder statesman, rather than chasing a lucrative posts in banks on Wall Street.

In 2005, he was involved in 18-month investigation into corruption in the program of the U.S. "oil for food program. Friends say that he has a sense of duty, experience and progressive streak to address current problems.

"People can be forgiven for what they think of it as the Ultimate bureaucracy, but in reality, he cares about just division of resources that make the country better," - said Wolfensohn.

Long shaken by the lack of the fact that his former protégé of Jerry Corrigan (Gerry Corrigan) called "the art of financial management of the State" on Wall Street, Walker became increasingly critical of the banks since the end of the financial crisis.

In mid 2009, he joked that the only useful recent innovation was the invention of a bank ATM, by the end of last year, he was not joking about this, his worry about the risk and bonuses.

Some bankers retorted that Walker did not come into contact with the world of cyber-finance the 21 st century. His behavior, of course, comes from another era: he refuses to use e-mail - wrote regular letters (or dictates Mrs. Dening), and his hearing aid sometimes brings.

Some bankers, as well as current officials also raise questions about whether the correct target for attack chose Volcker, focusing on their own trading operations of banks that do not play a large role in financial crisis. To differentiate between the risks taken on their own account and risk in the course of providing services, such as support for a stock quote from their own securities markets, securitization, and the provision of financial instruments for individual clients, much easier to clean rhetorically than in practice.

Any serious application of measures relating to services for clients involves the movement of these activities abroad. "I do not think he understands this. There is a clear underestimation of the complexity of global finance ", - said the former official said.

Nevertheless, supporters of the Volcker insisted that he understood the risks better than most modern geeks, and that his proposals are aimed at preventing the next and last financial crisis. In any case, return to the origins resonates as many Republicans and the Democrats.

During one of his recent visits to Capitol Hill, he met with Ron Paul (Ron Paul), a Republican from Texas and author of "End the Fed." Paul half-jokingly said: "I think if someone like you was there - we would have worked much better."

Not surprisingly, after the failure of election in the Massachusetts Senate, Obama has turned to the Volcker plan to implement retaliatory political blow. If Walker and was surprised that he is too experienced, that recognize this.

"He understands that once the catch is, and when some do not. This does not mean that he does not like fish, "- says Brady.

Meanwhile in Washington wits have another story. Walker, growth in the 6-foot-7, and "too big to fail".



The Financial Times

Friday, January 22, 2010

Retail sales in Canada fell by 0.3% in November

Retail sales in Canada fell in November to 0.3% to $ 35.2 billion, interrupting the growth, which lasted for the past three months. Data completely coincided with expectations of economists.

The main factor of incidence rate began dwindling sales of winter clothing, which is associated with unusually warm for this season's weather, established throughout Canada.

At the same time sales have declined in five of the eight sectors of retail trade. Falling sales in clothing and accessories at 3,6% was the most significant since September 2002.

Sales in the automotive sector declined in November to 0.2%.

Wholesale sales in Canada rose by 2.5% in November

Wholesale sales of goods to Canada grew in November at 2.5% to $ 42.4 billion when the market assumed a much lower rate of growth rate in the region of 0,4% -0,5%.

Sales have risen for the fifth time in the past six months. During this period, wholesale trade in Canada has restored approximately 1 / 3 the volume of sales that have been lost since the peak of sales in July 2008.

The main source of growth rate in November began selling in the automotive sector. In addition, strong growth seen in the grocery sector, which includes food, beverages and tobacco products.

Note that the wholesale sales in the automotive sector increased during the reporting period by 7,8% to $ 7.3 billion

UK retail sales index rose by 0,3% in December, below forecasts

The volume of retail sales in Britain rose by 0,3% in December in monthly terms, said National Statistical Office. The value index has fallen short of expectations of analysts, forecast growth index of retail sales by 1,3% during the reporting period. Recall that the previous month fell by 0,3%.

In annual terms, the index of retail sales amounted to 2,1% in December compared with 2,7% a month earlier (revised from 3,1%). Projected annual growth of sales by 3,0%.

The index of leading indicators in the U.S. increased by 1,1% in December

The index of leading economic indicators in the United States grew in December at 1.1%. The report of the research organization Conference Board noted that the growth of this indicator, which lasts for nine consecutive months, gives reason to expect a rapid pace and improve the economic situation of the coming spring.

The growth index of leading economic indicators in the reporting period exceeded the expectations of economists to forecast increased only by 0,7%.

Eight out of ten economic indicators rose in December. According to Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein, a noticeable growth indicators suggests that the economy is at an early stage of recovery.

New Bank Rules Sink Stocks

Obama introduced a proposal to limit the risks taken by large companies.



Photo: Left to right - the head of the bank Blankfeyn Lloyd (Lloyd Blankfein), James Dimon (James Dimon), John Mack (John Mack) and Brian Munihan (Brian Moynihan) take the oath on Capitol Hill earlier this month before testifying to Congress, the Commission of Inquiry financial crisis, which investigates the reasons for its occurrence.

President Barack Obama has proposed new limits on the size and activities of the largest banks in the country, urging regulators to a more rigorous approach, which has pushed down bank shares and boosted his personal position at the time of the company, showing that he "will not allow lowering the Wall Street.

Having on his side of the former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker (Paul Volcker), Obama stated that he wants to tighten the constraints on financial institutions and compel them to choose between the government security system, and usually quite a lucrative business for sale at its own expense, or possession of hedge funds or private equity funds. Walker was an outspoken supporter of such rules, until recently, Obama's chief economic advisers, including Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (Timothy Geithner), and Lawrence Summers (Lawrence Summers), were not so inspired.

"Never again will the American taxpayer will not be held hostage to the bank, which is too big to fail" - Obama said on Thursday, two days after the voters have blocked its ability to follow his plan by sending a Republican to the Senate in order to occupy the vacant seat after the death of Edward Kennedy (Edward M. Kennedy). Election defeat the Democrats the 60 votes are often required to make important decisions through the Senate.

Administration officials said they did not try to revive the Depression era law known as the "law of Glass-Stigalla, which severely shared commercial and investment banks. Their proposals do not compel the existing financial institutions to reduce the size of its activities.

If Obama's bill will be enacted by Congress, it means that his proposals could make significant changes in the activity of the largest banks in the country. The vision of a new, limiting the profitability of regulation, hit the bank shares on Thursday, lowering the Dow Jones at 213.27 points, or 2%, to 10,289.88. Some financial stocks have fallen more than 5%, although it rebounded slightly after Barney Frank (Barney Frank), a Democrat from Massachusetts and chairman of the Committee on Financial Services, said that the new regulations come fully into force after 3 or 5 years, but not right now. Taking aim at J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. was the hardest, falling shares amounted to 6,6%.

The fate of Obama's proposal remains uncertain. The White House has already adopted a provision that gives regulators the right to limit the scope and scale of banking activities. Approval of Congress now depends mainly on the Republicans in the Senate. Several Republicans skeptical look at Obama's proposal, put forward on Thursday. "Let's solve the problem," - said the Republican from Arizona, Sen. Jon Kyl (Jon Kyl). "No need to search for" ghost "in order to transfer it to the attention of the public and to withdraw from the mistakes the administration."

However, the political environment to the major banks are resolutely hostile, the Democrats need only a few Republican votes to approve the version of what Obama called "rule Volcker. Senator John McCain, Republican of Arizona, said that the White House, apparently, is close to a proposal, co-author of which he is to restore the restrictions on banks, which were abolished in the early 90's. "I think that a number of proposals Obama is moving in this direction, but so far I have not had the opportunity to study the details."

Large banks and industry groups say Obama's proposal unnecessary and unwise. "If people focus on the things that have caused or contributed to the financial crisis - that there will be no trading," - said David Viniar (David Viniar), CFO of Goldman Sachs.



In the past few years, banks have been increasing their profits in areas that lie far outside the deposits, lending, trading stocks and bonds on behalf of clients.

Some bought or sponsored hedge funds. Others took up investing their own funds in the markets.

After the collapse of Lehman Brothers and rescue of American International Group in the autumn of 2008, investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley formally became banks, which gave them access to Fed loans and federal guarantees for their loans in the financial markets.

When the crisis ebbed, Goldman and some other banks were able to borrow at low interest rates and move the trading profit on their accounts. This gave Volcker and his allies, who include Vice-President Joe Biden (Joe Biden), a new force for their point of view, namely that the government supported banks should be allowed to take on more trading risk.

"The key issue is that agencies that receive support from the taxpayers, should not be able to profit from its own investments", - said Austin Goolsbee (Austan Goolsbee), economist at the White House, which has staffed the Presidential Advisory Council, headed by Volcker.

The bank had gathered on Thursday to talk about Obama's proposals, mainly on the likely effect on areas where the bank capital is intertwined with the funds of clients. The new rules are likely to force JPMorgan to give up equity in One Equity Partners, which invests the money of the firm. Disentangle direct investment in Goldman will be harder, as more than a cunning scheme lies in the fact that the organization invests its money in the same funds, which invested the money of investors.

Under Obama's proposal, banks that accept deposits are insured or eligible to hold the Fed will be allowed to invest or sponsor of hedge funds or investment funds. "You can do your own trading operations or be the owner of the bank, but you can not do these two things at once," - said an administration official.

The President also called for an extension of the 1994 Act, which prohibits banks buy other banks, if such a deal could bring more than 10% of State-guaranteed deposits. He would like to expand the use of restrictions on other types of financing, such as short-term borrowing of banks in financial markets and may cut the proportion of assets that can retain a firm.

Announcement on Thursday - this is the last step of the way the White House attack on Wall Street and banks. Earlier this month, the president proposed a new commission for the amount of large banks and insurance companies, which could reach $ 90 billion over 10 years, ostensibly to cover the costs of rescue financial companies and motorcar giants.

Caught lasso | How Obama's proposals blow to U.S. banks
If Obama's proposals will go through Congress, the profits of almost all large U.S. banks is likely to be twisted into a knot and reduced. Explanations for these organizations:

Bank of America - on their own trading accounts have less than 1% of total income. Own trading unit, and direct investment funds, BAML Capital Pertners may be affected, but Bank of America does not manage hedge funds.

Citi - on their own trading accounts have less than 5% of total income. Some domestic direct investment, real estate and hedge funds may be affected.

Goldman Sachs - - on their own trading accounts for about 10% of total income. Goldman, together with our clients and keeps money in domestic investment and hedge funds.

J. P. Morgan Chase and CO. - On their own trading accounts have less than 1% of the income of the company. One Equity Partners domestic investment fund, which made $ 141 million from $ 3.28 billion fourth-quarter earnings should be dismissed. The bank also has a hedge fund.

Morgan Stanley - Shares in the management of several hedge funds and one internal operation under threat, along with the rapidly changing our own Department of Commerce. In general, these shares Morgan Stanley less than 5% of revenues.

Wells Fargo has inherited some of their own trading operations after buying Wachovia in 2008, but lost much of this business to date.



The Wall Street Journal
January 21

Thursday, January 21, 2010

LiteForex begins year bonus programs

On January 21, 2010 re-started the bonus program, which has become extremely popular with customers of companies LiteForex. In accordance with its terms, for each trading account, supplemented in the period from 21 January to 28 February 2010 inclusive, bonus up to $ 1000.

Participation in the bonus program gives the trader an opportunity to significantly reduce the personal financial cost and simultaneously increase trade opportunities. A similar bonus campaign was first held in autumn 2009, at the time of her termination interest in the system of bonuses from clients group of companies LiteForex not abated, and, given the wishes of customers, the company re-launched its bonus share of 21 January 2010.

"We did not change the terms of the action, because they determined its popularity among traders, working with a group of companies LiteForex», - explains the President of the Group LiteForex Alexei Smirnov. - "The bonus period, having started on January 21, will last until the end of winter - that is, until February 28. At each refill at this time we have a trading account bonus up to $ 1000.

In accordance with the terms of the size of bonus shares is in direct proportion to the amount of replenishment of the deposit. Bonus equivalent of 100, 200, 500, 700 and U.S. $ 1000, will accrue to the trading account, supplemented in amounts ranging from 300 to 1000, from 1000 to 3000, from 3000 to 5000, from 5000 to 10 000, and over 10 000 dollars respectively.

Profits earned by commercial operations using the bonus amount can be withdrawn from the trading account at any time in accordance with the wishes of its owner without any restrictions. The bonus amount may also be deduced trader with his trading account, but that he must commit no less than 50 transactions, of not less than 1 \ 10 of the bonuses.

"In order to withdraw from the account of funds received as a bonus" - continues to Alexei Smirnov, - "a trader should write a letter to his personal account manager, to allow the withdrawal of these funds. Checking compliance with all conditions of the action, the manager activates the possibility of withdrawal of the bonus amount from the account. The procedure is quite simple and does not require a long time - the dates are limited to one banking day.


The detailed conditions and restrictions for participation in the bonus shares issued in the public domain at the official site of the group of companies LiteForex http://liteforex.org/promotions_depo.php.

Net public sector borrowing Britain fell in December, contrary to expectations

Net public sector borrowing Britain (Public Sector Net Borrowing) amounted to 15.7 billion pounds in December, said National Statistical Office. Recall that in November the figure was 18.7 billion pounds, and in December predicted decline to 18.6 billion pounds. In December 2008, loans totaled 13.8 billion

Net needs of the state borrowing (Public sector net cash requirements) for the period amounted to 23.6 billion pounds in the forecast 25.5 billion pounds and the previous value of 14.6 billion pounds.

Eurozone PMI index changed different direction for January

According to preliminary data, the PMI in the manufacturing sector (PMI manufacturing) for January was 52.0 points compared with 51.6 points a month earlier. The value of the meet analysts' forecasts.

At the same time, PMI in sphere of services (PMI services) has declined during the reporting month from 53.6 points to 52.3 points. This figure is expected to increase to 54.1 points.

Note that the PMI indexes accurately reflect the economic conditions in the sector of production and services, the overall economic situation and development prospects. Value indices above 50 points indicates growth of business activity in relation to the previous month, below - to decline.

Conference Board Predicts Productivity Rebound After 2009 Drop

According to an estimate Conference Board, a global productivity growth will accelerate this year after a sharp decline in the effectiveness of the European economy that recorded for the first time since 1991.

According to today's report of a study group from New York, a global productivity per worker will rise by 2.2% after its worst recession for 6 decades, leading to a decrease of 1% in 2009, the first time since the decline of 0,1% in 1991.

Last year's drop underlines fundamental differences in the reaction of the largest economies in recession. Productivity in the U.S. grew by 2,5%, as manufacturers cut back wages working hours faster than in the euro area, where output fell by 1%.

"Employers in the U.S. reacted to the recession much stronger than their European counterparts," - said in a statement Bart van Ark (Bart Van Ark), chief economist at the Conference. "In 2010, both Europe and the U.S. will see greater growth in productivity, which will be due out of the recession.

Productivity is the main reason why investors such as BlackRock Inc., The world's largest companies, asset managers, prefer to buy U.S. stocks. Gains may also help curb inflation, giving policy-makers, able to maintain a record-low interest rates, even during the economic recovery.

"We just had a very, very serious recession, but U.S. productivity grew up" - said Robert Doll (Robert Doll), BlackRock vice chairman and chief global investment in shares on January 6 at the presentation. "This is very unusual, and indicates the ability of U.S. corporate sector to quickly adapt to new realities."

Decrease
Johnson & Johnson, the world's largest manufacturer of health products, and United Parcel Service Inc., The largest forwarding company, among U.S. companies that are trying to survive by cutting costs. New Brunswick, branch of Johnson & Johnson in New Jersey, said in November that will dismiss more than 7000 employees worldwide, that will help save $ 1.7 billion by 2011. UPS announced its intention to cut 1,800 jobs because of cuts in the American administration module.

In Europe, 11 January, Munich Siemens AG, the largest engineering company in the continent, said that productivity gains and savings on procurement will bring profits from 1.3 billion euros ($ 1.9 billion) to 1.8 billion euros. French Thales Sa, Europe's largest defense electronics companies, 11 December announced that it plans to save 1.3 billion euros over 5 years to achieve "growth in productivity and simplify the organization."

At that time, productivity will grow this year, Van Ark said that the "unemployed" recovery, as in the U.S. and in Europe - is "the most likely scenario."

Productivity in the U.S.
Productivity in the U.S. will grow by 3% after the fall of employment by 3,6%. The reduction of working hours on 1,5% has helped increase productivity in the past year.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernarke said that he was "somewhat skeptical" about the fact that recent increases in productivity can be retained and this may be the reason to expect an increase in rentals. Productivity growth may limit employment in the short term, as firms can do a smaller number of workers and delay hiring new employees, in addition, efficiency gains could be temporary, said Bernarke November 16.

European productivity growth in the time dimension will grow by 2% in 2010, said the head of the conference. Within 16 national eurozone, German output fell by 2.2% and is projected to grow by 2,8% this year due to growth in output and reduction of working hours, the report said. France became one of the few European countries where productivity growth was recorded in the past year, and it amounted to 0,3%.

"Very bad"
"Innovation and Dynamics in Europe at a very poor level", - said Jan. 14 on the radio in an interview with Bloomberg Nobel laureate Edmund Phelps (Edmund Phelps), a professor at Columbia University. "Europe in decades and decades has been in bad shape."

Productivity in the UK falling faster than its European neighbors, a decrease of 1,9% due to the large fall in output. Under the plan, this year grow by 1,7%.

The global acceleration in 2010 will depend on emerging markets, said at the conference. Chinese productivity growth increased by 8,2% in 2009 and the expected growth rate this year is 7,7%.

"Emerging economies are becoming global competitors to be reckoned with on the basis of their high rates of productivity growth", - said Van Ark.



Bloomberg
January 20

China economy soars, sets stage for policy tightening

China easily overcame the target mark of growth in 2009 due to impressive performance in the fourth quarter, which creates a basis for further tightening of monetary policy, and will overtake Japan by indicators, becoming the second largest economy in the world.

Between October and December, compared with last year, GDP grew by 10,7%, this figure is slightly lower than market forecasts of 10.9%, but differs sharply from a revised rate of 9.1% in third quarter . Quick quarterly growth in China for two years has boosted expectations that Beijing raise interest rates in the next few months, he can take after a series of small steps to curb the flow of credit and prevent overheating of the economy and markets.

"Obviously, month after month, growth is very significant", - said Ksing Zikyang (Xing Ziqiang), economist CICC in Beijing. "Because I think we have every chance to see rising interest rates in the first quarter."

For the whole 2009 the economy grew by 8,7%, jumping nimbly mark the official target of 8%, which was considered the minimum necessary to create new jobs and maintain social stability.

This increased the confidence of markets and customers, turning growth, is becoming more stable and comprehensive.

"Trust - is the spark inciting understanding", - said at a press briefing, the head of the National Bureau of Statistics Dzhaytang Ma (Ma Jiantang).

These data prompted economists JPMorgan and RBS to raise growth forecasts for 2010 to 10% with 9,7% and 9,5% respectively, but the expectations of policy tightening outweighed optimism about China's contribution to global recovery.

Short-term dollar rose to a 4 months after the publication of the Chinese data, as investors abandoned the risky bets. Shares in most countries of the Asia-Pacific region declined, while shares in Shanghai rose by 0,3%.

The heyday of the fourth quarter contributed to lower the data from the same period a year ago, when the export-oriented economy in China has slowed down the global financial crisis, resulting in more than 20 million migrant workers have lost their seats.

But double-digit growth rate also shows a rapid response by the Government on the decline.

4 trillion yuan ($ 585 billion) of tax incentives were complemented by unprecedented growth in lending secured by state banks, insisting that China has become the first economy recovering strongly after the credit crisis.

Warning on inflation
Indeed, banks have issued so much debt in recent years that the policy rightly focused their attention on inflation.

Bureau of Statistics, which published the data on GDP, also reported that consumer prices rose by 1.9% in December year over year, reflecting an increase from November to 0.6%.

Worried by a new explosion of credit in early January, the central bank has increased the required proportion of deposits that banks must hold in reserve and not lend, as early as this week, ordered some banks dramatically reduce lending volumes for the remainder of the month.

The central bank also raised the yield of their bonds during the past few weeks, and on Thursday pushed up the yield of three-month bills for the second time this year.

So far, China has resisted international pressure to allow the yuan to rise after 18-month pause, but everyone expects that Beijing will soften the impact on the currency in the coming months.

"Strengthening the yuan could return in March or April, although growth will be gradual, say, somewhere in the 3-5% per year", - said Ksing.

Strong exchange rate will weaken and inflation will stimulate domestic demand, thereby helping to balance the Chinese, as well as the global economy.

China takes steps to stimulate spending, which include subsidies for rural buyers of household appliances and tax breaks for fuel-efficient cars, and this measure has helped China overtake the U.S. in 2009, the largest car market in the world.

Retail sales rose 17.5% to December of the year, it accelerated from 15,8% in November compared with forecasts for 16.4%.

Industrial production growth slowed to 18,5% with 19,2%, denying market forecast 20.0% growth.

The growth of 8,7% in 2009 was below the pace of the previous year, 9,6%, but economists polled by Reuters expect vovzrascheniya growth this year by about 9.5%.

That would be enough for China to surpass Japan as the world economic rankings, making it the number 3. Goldman Sachs expects that China will eclipse the U.S. as the largest economy in the world by 2027.



Reuters
January 21

RBS expects weakening of the euro against the dollar by year-end to 1.35

According to currency analysts Royal Bank of Scotland, Greece, the problem with the reduction of the budget deficit will continue to exert pressure on the European currency for some time. As noted in the bank, even if the immediate assistance of Greece is not required in the future the country can apply for assistance is not to the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The bank's strategy is recommended selling the euro at the growth of foreign currency against the U.S. dollar. By year end, bank analysts continue to predict a weakening of European currencies against the dollar to a level of 1.35. Euro / dollar at the moment is trading at around 1.4044.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

LiteForex enables international trader forum

Group LiteForex announces the opening of a new forum http: / / forum. Liteforex. Org /. Communicating in this forum may be carried out in ten languages (English, Arabic, Indonesian, Spanish, Chinese, Malay, German, Portuguese, Russian and French). A language interface forum user configurable individually by using one of five languages: English, Arabic, German, Russian and French.

Since 2010, all clients are a group of companies, regardless of their linguistic background, have access to multilingual forum of companies LiteForex. Features of this information platform to rapidly obtain official information about the group of companies LiteForex, the most productive exchange of experiences between private traders at the international level and, consequently, improve the performance of individual trade.

Taking into account the multilingual environment of its clients, representatives of the group of companies LiteForex claim to continue work on expanding language capabilities Forum.

"The immediate plan to work on a forum we can identify several goals" - continues to Alexei Smirnov - "development of blogs, creating an effective portal. In the informational aspects of special attention will be given to the sections of actual news and market analysts, as well - a kind of "encyclopedia" trader ".

New forum group of companies LiteForex (http: / / forum. Liteforex. Org /.) Operates on the basis vBulletin ® Version 3.8.4. In addition to multilanguage this software to ensure quick, efficient and safe operation, the interface consisting of templates, a powerful search engine, quality support, user profiles, the possibility of creating an unlimited number of topics and posts, the assessment to be notified by e-mail.

About:

Company Straighthold Investment Group, Inc. represented by well-known brand LiteForex and included in the group of companies LiteForex. Among the main activities of the group of companies includes placement of financial assets in the international currency market Forex, the world's stock markets, precious metals markets, futures markets, the provision of brokerage services.

Official website of the company LiteForex - www. Liteforex. Org

Net purchases of Canadian securities 10.5 billion for November

Total purchases of Canadian securities by foreign investors amounted to November 10,5 billion, an increase mainly due to increased demand for government bonds (12.9 billion dollars). A month earlier, the Canadian securities invested net 5.95 billion (revised from 5.81 billion) dollars, and in November projected decline to 5.23 billion dollars.

Net sales of foreign securities in Canada amounted to 2.4 billion dollars for November, said the Statistical Office of the country. A month earlier, had net purchases of 4.1 billion

It is worth noting that the volume of purchases of government bonds the U.S. by Canadian investors in November reached a maximum level since June 2007, 2.6 billion dollars (Treasury bonds - 1,3 billion dollars, Treasury bills - 1,4 billion dollars).

Consumer price index in Britain rose in December, more than expected

Annual consumer price index rose for the UK in December 2009 to 2,9%, reports the National Statistics Office. Note that in November, the annual inflation rate was 1,9%, and in December projected growth rate to 2,6%.

Last month, consumer prices increased by 0,6% after increasing by 0,3% in November. Analysts speculated that the index will grow by 0,3% during the reporting period.

At the same time, the annual consumer price index, not taking into account the price of food, energy, alcohol and tobacco products (core index) rose in December from 1,9% to 2,8% while the forecast 2.3%, which was the maximum its value in the history of observations.

ZEW index of economic sentiment in Germany 47.2 points in January, weaker than forecasts

ZEW index of economic sentiment in Germany amounted to 47.2 points in January compared with 50.4 points a month earlier. Thus analysts predicted decline to 49.8 index points. Note that the index falls fourth consecutive month, but its current level is much higher than the historical average 27.1 points.

Status indicator indicates that the restoration of the German economy will slow in the next six months. "Evaluation of financial market experts suggest that in 2010 we will at best see the restoration, rather than strong economic growth", - said ZEW.

The index of current conditions in Germany rose in January to 4.0 points to minus 56.6 points.

Index Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment fell for the reporting period from 48.0 points to 46.4 points in the forecast increase to 48.2 points. The index of current conditions in the euro area improved in January to 5.1 points to minus 62.7.

Digging out of debt

Reducing debt in developed countries has only just begun

Deleveraging - this is a bad word during the painful process. There are several things that mean for the world economy more than ever, talking about how quickly developed countries could cut their debts. History suggests that severe financial crises are usually accompanied by long periods of debt relief, during which credit falls relative to the size of the economy. At this time the process repeats. Banks plummeting balances. Consumer lending in the U.S. declined 10 months in a row, which is the most extensive and long drop in history. But how far can this process go?

A new report McKinsey Global Institute (research arm of the consulting firm), is trying to answer this question. The report begins with a comparison of recent changes in the level of debt in 10 developed economies and 4 developing countries. Value of total debt to GDP (including debt created by homeowners, government, non-financial organizations and the financial industry) vary greatly from nearly 300% in the U.S., where it is lower than in many other countries. There are a few exceptions, such as Germany and Japan, which are the most developed countries, shows an increase over the last decade. Britain and Spain - is the most extreme of the country, shows an increase in total debt by more than 150% for each country, up 465% and 365% respectively.



Debts have grown up in different places and in different countries. With the exception of Japan, which has to deal with the consequences of its own stock market crash, the public debt to GDP ratio, is at one level or falls. With the exception of commercial property and buy assets with leverage, the world's largest corporations also vvyazli in debt. Corporate leverage, measured as debt to equity ratio was stable or falling in most countries before the crisis. It is the duty of the financial sector as a proportion of GDP, grew in most countries, especially in Britain and Spain, but some pockets of funding (such as investment banks) have shown a significant increase in leverage. Outside of Germany and Japan, where the shoulder was reduced, the greatest increase was in domestic households. Most developed countries are faced with more than 40% increase in the ratio of household debt to their income. Even there, however, growth was not similar. In the U.S. the majority of the debt created by middle-income households. In Spain - low.

Data provided by McKinsey, probably represent one of the most concentrated areas of credit costs, rather than the debt burden of the entire economy. As a result, the processes of debt reduction will vary in different sectors and countries. The estimated ratio of total debt to GDP, deleveraging (reduction of leverage) has just begun. In June 2009, this ratio fell only in the U.S., Britain and South Korea, while not so much. However, the composition of debt has changed dramatically, as government loans increased, while private debt fell. The financial sector declined the most. By mid-2009, the financial credit lever in most countries has fallen to an average 15 years before the crisis.

To determine where the compression is most likely, the study investigated how far can the growth of debt in different sectors and countries, taking into account the historical averages. Also take into account the ability of borrowers to meet their own debts and vulnerability to loss of income. On this basis, it can be assumed where there is a high, medium or low probability of deleveraging in the next few years. Half of the 10 developed countries in the sample record is one or a few sectors where there is a high vulnerability to reduce debt. It is not surprising that these sectors include households in the United States, Britain, Spain and, to a lesser extent, Canada and South Korea, as well as commercial real estate in the United States, Britain and Spain. Given the high risk of corporate and financial deleveraging, from Spain to be the most difficult way. The list contains no countries that have a high chance of reducing the national debt over the next few years.

Change speed
Determining the probability of further deleveraging is not the same, that the measurement of its likely impact. To do this, the study turns to history. Was found 32 examples of prolonged deleveraging (at least 3 years in a row, during which the ratio of total debt to GDP fell by no less than 10%) in post-crisis period. In some cases, the debt declined due to default. In others it was declined due to inflation. But about half the cases, which the authors report, regarded as the most appropriate point for comparison, the deleveraging going through a long period of contraction, when it grew less rapidly than production. This information is sobering. Usually deleveraging began two years after the crisis began and ended in 6-7 years. In almost every case, the reduction of production observed in the first 2 or 3 years. (Countries that have pledged or subjected defaulted debts of inflation faced primarily with a strong recession, but had a higher growth of production in the end than the "Protracted belt").

Worse, there are several reasons why the current mess could be longer than in previous periods. First, the extent of debt above. The biggest factor (286%) of debt in the group "zatyagivateley zone" was in Britain in the postwar period. Today, more than half the developed countries in the sample McKinsey in arrears of more than 300% of GDP. Secondly, the number of countries affected at the same time, means the difficulty of achieving a rapid increase in exports, which in the past supported the production. Thirdly, a significant increase in public debt with the weakening of demand in the short term, increases the total debt, which will be reduced. When the private deleveraging ends, it is necessary to reduce public spending.

In theory it sounds simple. In practice it would be devilishly difficult to get the desired balance. Investors may worry about the national debt long before the end of non-state reduction of debt, leading to the need to tighten the set screws at a time. The most painful blows deleveraging can be expected ahead.



The Economist
January 14

The changing faces of global power

Collect the jaguar, bear, tiger and panda together, and you'll see a good show, but is unlikely to get a quiet life.

Acronym BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) has become the symbol of emerging markets to strengthen the global economy. After a successful decade for the BRIC countries swept crisis, from which they quickly left.

Goldman Sachs, the financial group, which introduced the category of countries, believes that China may become the largest economy in the world until 2030. Taken together, the BRICs economies until 2032 will surpass the level of production of Group of Seven, which prevailed in the management of the global economy.

BRIC countries already have a large share in world trade than the United States. China, probably the world's largest exporter of goods last year, was supported by the unproductive services, India, Russia's oil and gas, leadership in agricultural commodity markets, the Brazilian super-competitive farmers.

Although the stock shares in the G7 countries are struggling to stay on a positive level during the past approximately 5 years, the BRIC stock prices, although with a steep or day and the sharp rebound during the global financial crisis, ended the decade rate 2 times higher than in 2005. BRIC equity index rose; Fund is open to investors in order to become the sector.

The world comes out of recession, is moving there in this transformational time the center of gravity in the global economy and its governance? Is this a turning point, as the Second World War, when the U.S. became stronger and confident, the economy of Europe emerged from the war with a high debt load, and the world is changing the global financial architecture? And, most importantly: Do participants ORDERS BRIC to rebalancing the world economy by getting rid of consuming the American model?

The most likely thing: There is not. BRIC countries is also fragmented and almost any co-operation is very problematic, but China, which is the dominant member of the Quartet, it still seems devoted to export economic model, in which it is dependent on other countries.

"So-called emerging economies, even in Bangladesh, are the players on the world stage," - said Jean-Pierre Lehmann (Jean-Pierre Lehmann), Professor of Political Economy from the School of Management, IMD in Lausanne, Switzerland. "I do not see any major upheavals in the next 10 years, as well as the fact that the financial center of gravity is definitely shifting to the east."

Pododno boys band or a street gang, the BRICs, most likely, was selected based on their different capabilities, rather than similarities. The size of China and its openness to global trade making it the economic power comparable to all other members of the group. Marcus Jager (Markus Ja"ger) from Deutsche Bank calls giperkonkurentosposobnogo industrial products "vosmisotfuntovoy panda in the house. India, similar to the population, but poorer and more economically closed, mostly more useful for investors and partners in their programs and business services. Brazil, despite the small number of producers, remains one of the largest in the world agroeksporterov; Russia after a weak attempt to diversify, in fact, only sells oil and gas.

The history of their rapid development is familiar to all, but still interesting. Ten years ago, only one of these countries had a credit rating, but now it is all four. Only 12 years ago, a default in Russia and the Brazilian currency crisis rocked the world economy, and today they have accumulated massive foreign exchange reserves.

At the BRICs account for about half of global growth between 2000 and 2008, growth was much higher than in the previous decade. But with this growth, came to unbalance the world economy.

The Chinese model of growth based on large-scale investment and exports, was accompanied by a huge positive current account balance across East Asia, coinciding with the U.S. current account deficit. And despite making its contribution to the maintenance of economic growth during the crisis is far from clear that the Middle Kingdom has changed its attitude to consumer demand, which could become a true engine of global growth.

A large scale Beijing in November 2008 announced a package of incentives at $ 585 billion and to ease credit conditions. But China's ability to create self-sustaining growth was in doubt. Rather than distribute the money in hand to increase consumer spending, and perhaps, encouraging imports, a large piece of the stimulus went into the long-loved fixed assets. "If global demand will not recover in time, or incentives not to cheer people, China risks eventually create excess capacity," - said Jager.

Razin, Sally (Razeen Sally), trade expert from the London School of Economics said: "The Chinese intervention exacerbated the existing problems and imbalances. We see a lot of excess capacity in export-oriented industries, such as an excess of steel.

Re-peg the renminbi to the dollar in 2008, after he was allowed to go up, also not helped the Chinese economy to move from exports to domestic demand. The effect of this decision is multiplied copied the actions of many underdeveloped countries, suppressing its currency so as not to lose competitiveness to China.

Indeed, despite the widespread decline in consumer demand considerably reducing the absolute level of current account surpluses in China during the crisis, which reduced the number of vessels carrying toys and players from the Shenzhen and Shanghai, China continues building up its stake abroad. IMF and others believe that the apparent change in the global balance of the world economy over the last year of a temporary nature. When demand rises, so did the exports of China, with all the old surpluses and deficits.

Despite the extravagance, Chinese consumer sector has become smaller over the last decade. The overall level of savings grew throughout the decade. Although much of this growth reflects corporate savings - savings of households also increased, but still, a large share of national income went to the company, not consumers.

Last year's study of McKinsey Global Institute has supported the view that many economists have long discussed: shortcomings in the system of social guarantees - one of the main reasons why Chinese households save. The most obvious three reasons: educational needs, safety in case of illness and care for their parents. Changes in these deep structural factors will never be fast. But this is not resolved by a simple show of appreciation of the yuan.

As for the other BRIC countries, whose growth trends are slower, they are unlikely to have a significant impact on global demand for some time. Although the economy of Brazil and India have grown even in times of crisis, the past of these economies suggests that they do not maintain high growth rates. India also faces the chronic problem of public funding, and savings rate for households is even higher than in China. Meanwhile Russia, whose economy has declined sharply during the global slowdown continues to depend on oil prices.

Ten years of economic growth is not enough to BRIC to grab the baton of global economic leadership by the United States and Western Europe. Group, or some of them might surprise the world with their progress over the next ten years. However, this will require qualitative improvements, as well as greater support for these changes by the authorities.




The Financial Times
January 17

Mizuho said increasing bearish momentum in the euro / yen

As the currency analysts Mizuho, bearish momentum in a pair euro / yen was strong, but support at 130.00 while holding back the further development of downward movement. Nevertheless, the bank continues to adhere to the bearish forecast for the couple and prefer to sell at the best exchange rate, reinforcing the position at 131.00, with a stop above 132.45 and 129.60 short-term goals and 127.75. At the moment the euro / yen traded at 130.03. Couple nearly recovered from recent lows near Y129.65 on rising U.S. stock indexes, as well as buying a pair of large U.S. bank, and rose above the mark Y130.00. Dealers report triggered stops the breakout of this level, bringing the couple climbed in the area above Y130.30 (61.8% of Y130.72 - 129.66), after which the upward momentum somewhat weakened. Breakthrough at this level led to a further rise in the euro / yen to a mark Y130.50, and then to the field Y130.70/80.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Annual inflation in the euro zone 0.9% in December, at the level of forecasts

According to final data of the EU statistical agency Eurostat, the annual consumer price index for the euro area amounted to 0,9% in December 2008 compared with 0,5% a month earlier. The value of the meet analysts' forecasts.
In monthly terms, the consumer price index rose in December to 0.3% after rising 0.1% in the previous month.
Annual consumer price index excluding prices for food, tobacco, alcohol and fuel (main index) was 1.1% during the period when the previous value of 1.0%. Economists were expecting the main index does not change

The index of leading indicators the UK is growing eighth consecutive month

The index of leading indicators of Great Britain (The Conference Board Leading Economic Index) rose by 0,9% in November 2008 to 98,6 (in 2004 - 100), after rising by 1.1% in October and 1.0% in September. It is worth noting that the rate increases continuously for eight months.
At the same time, the index of coincident indicators (The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index), reflecting the ongoing momentum in economic activity, added 0.1% in November, reaching 102.8 points.

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Thursday, January 14, 2010

Inventories of crude oil in the U.S. rose by 3.7 million barrels

Oil prices on world markets fell Wednesday following the publication of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) information on the growth of crude oil and distillates, which has exceeded expectations.
Inventories of crude oil in the U.S. increased by 3.7 million barrels for the week to January 8. Analysts had expected stockpiles to increase by only 1 million barrels.
Inventories of distillates rose by 1.4 million barrels, although experts expect to reduce that figure by 1.7 million barrels.
As a result, oil futures for February delivery fell by $ 1.92, or 2.4%, to $ 78.87 per barrel.

Commerzbank: dollar / franc needed break above the moving average

According to currency analysts Commerzbank, as the dollar / franc kept below 55-day moving average, which takes place at the level of 1.0221, the pressure in the pair is maintained, while it is possible to reduce the level of 1.0030, which is 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement. Break above 1.0221 will neutralize the risks of further reduction couples and open the way to 1.0386 with the prospect of further growth to the 200-day moving average at 1.0589. At the moment the dollar / franc is trading at around 1.0205. During the European session, the couple got up from the area below Chf1.0170 to levels above Chf1.0200 against the backdrop of a stable demand from the Swiss corporate accounts. Offer in the pair recorded near the level Chf1.0220, larger Ofer located in the Chf1.0245/60.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

White House says stimulus has saved two million jobs

Emergency measures expenditure Obama rescued last year to 2 million jobs USA stated Belyi House Wednesday however warned that future economy remains questionable.

President Obama in aspiration shorten harming his popularity two-digit U.S. unemployment already urged Government adopt additional measures increase employment using $ 787-billionth package incentives that it adopted in February 2009.

Kristina Romer (Christina Romer), chap council Obama Economic Affairs awaits positive indicators creating jobs by spring but stressed that exists clear need additional "targeted actions" for combat unemployment.

"There uncertainty, in what side moves economy and when restored private sector", - told Romer journalists at conference during discussion quarterly report Congress of package incentives.

"What we dobemsya through year, see whether we growth consumptively see whether we firms who again started invest funds?" - She said.

Country experienced the action from strongest past 70 years recession after market meltdowns estate USA causing global financial crisis that turn boosted unemployment 10%.

In response proposal Obama on additional measures lower chamber Congressional endorsed last month package incentives on $ 155 billion Senate how expected decides his version working new legislation coming weeks.

Belyi House using two different approaches for determining influence stimulus package considers that employment USA grew between 1,5 and 2 millions workplaces by end 2009 that resulted package incentives.

Romer considers that Packages incentives help preserve to 3.5 million workplaces by end year current.

Furthermore, Belyi House said that 640,000 workplaces were saved or created by direct infusions funds from package, implying that this score may be understated.

Money inject into economy may render reinforced influence rentals who beyond value dollar due so called multipliers which increase effect economic impact moment when Government pumping her money.

Approximately third package incentives already spent and obtained inversely in form taxes. Given money which were transmitted but yet not spent this sum increases to half of total.

Belyi House considers that these data added by 3-4 percentage points growth in third quarter and approximately 1,5-3 in fourth.

In annualized, Economics USA grew on 2,2% in third quarter after decrease on 0,7% for preceding three months.

"Without Act about restoring, we would continued falling in third quarter", - said Romer. She noted that analysts private sector predict 4% growth in fourth quarter, and most this activity will possible thanks package incentives.



Reuters
January 13