Data released on the performance of Brazil's economy in the third quarter show the country is recovering from the effects of last year's international financial crisis at a slower pace than originally imagined, economists at Brazil's National Confederation of Industries, or CNI, said Thursday.
In an review of the data, CNI analysts noted expectations of higher third-quarter growth were frustrated by a weaker-than-imagined retraction seen last year.
"The negative impact of the international crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008 was less intense than previously reported, which elevated the base of comparison," CNI economists said. "If on one hand, the negative impact of the crisis was less intense, on the other hand the pace of recovery of the GDP has been slightly slower."
Brazil's gross domestic product expanded 1.3% in the third quarter compared with the second quarter this year, the Brazilian statistics insitute, or IBGE, reported Thursday. The result came in lower than a median forecast of growth around 1.9% made by economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires and by analysts at the CNI.
CNI economists noted the third-quarter result was also adversely affected by poor performance in Brazil's farm sector, which registered a 2.5% contraction in the period.
The industrial sector, meanwhile, led growth with a 2.9% expansion in the period. The quarterly increase in industrial growth was aided by a 2% expansion in household consumption and a 6.5% increase in investment.
CNI analysts, noted, however that despite improved activity in the third quarter, industrial GDP remained down by 6.9% compared with the third quarter in 2008.
"This result could reduce the possiblity of a an upward revision for the CNI's (previous) estimates of zero growth in 2009," the economists said.
The CNI said it would release new estimates for Brazil's 2009 GDP growth on Dec. 15.
According to recent market surveys by Brazil's central bank, the country's economy is seen growing by 0.2% in 2009 and expanding by 5% in 2010.
In an review of the data, CNI analysts noted expectations of higher third-quarter growth were frustrated by a weaker-than-imagined retraction seen last year.
"The negative impact of the international crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008 was less intense than previously reported, which elevated the base of comparison," CNI economists said. "If on one hand, the negative impact of the crisis was less intense, on the other hand the pace of recovery of the GDP has been slightly slower."
Brazil's gross domestic product expanded 1.3% in the third quarter compared with the second quarter this year, the Brazilian statistics insitute, or IBGE, reported Thursday. The result came in lower than a median forecast of growth around 1.9% made by economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires and by analysts at the CNI.
CNI economists noted the third-quarter result was also adversely affected by poor performance in Brazil's farm sector, which registered a 2.5% contraction in the period.
The industrial sector, meanwhile, led growth with a 2.9% expansion in the period. The quarterly increase in industrial growth was aided by a 2% expansion in household consumption and a 6.5% increase in investment.
CNI analysts, noted, however that despite improved activity in the third quarter, industrial GDP remained down by 6.9% compared with the third quarter in 2008.
"This result could reduce the possiblity of a an upward revision for the CNI's (previous) estimates of zero growth in 2009," the economists said.
The CNI said it would release new estimates for Brazil's 2009 GDP growth on Dec. 15.
According to recent market surveys by Brazil's central bank, the country's economy is seen growing by 0.2% in 2009 and expanding by 5% in 2010.
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