Yesterday was the second stage of the Central Bank of meetings, and the impression that the Bank of England and the ECB have become more optimistic about the prospects of their economies. However, this did not prevent the Bank of England still increase the monetary program of liberalization on the £ 25 billion. Thus, the total size of the package of measures to repurchase the assets had reached £ 200 billion, but the remainder of the term of payment was extended to 3 months instead of one. Known for their caution in assessing the economy, Monetary Policy Committee at this time suggested that in the near future may increase activity (although the low rates). Due to the fact that the size of the program was extended for the minimum amount in the range of market expectations, and economic statistics published during the day, exceeded projections, the pound has overcome selling pressure and showed a sharp rollback of up to 2-week highs.
The ECB, by contrast, was steadfast as a rock, although the Central Bank chairman Trichet at a press conference said a little more enthusiastically than anticipated by market participants. He called the level of interest rates "appropriate", however, after the words "not all the liquidity needed in the future, the euro came into the movement and rose to a one-week maximum.
On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, the U.S. productivity in the 3 rd quarter increased by 9,5%, which clearly reflects the impact of measures to stimulate and massive cuts in some plants. Weekly Report on applications for unemployment benefits showed only a slight improvement to 512 000 jobs lost from 532 000 the previous week and yesterday's report, together with ADP, which came out worse than expected, may dampen the report today on employment. Stock markets statistics relished, however, the connection between "strong stock markets - the weak dollar is" chattering slightly, as the dollar index closed down a slight increase. There is no doubt that it is the uncertainty surrounding today's report was the main driving factor in the currency market.
The leader of the movement in the Asian session was the Australian dollar (though the increase was about 30 points) after the release of quarterly reports the RBA's monetary policy. The main source of movement was the revision of the short-term forecast for growth in 2009 to 1,75% from 0,50% and in 2010 to 3,25% from 2,25%, while additional support has revised the forecast for the CPI index for the period until December 2010 inclusive, to the level of 2,25% (figure yet fit into the target inflation range of 2-3%). In general, it was a more positive assessment with less reserves than initially anticipated, however, the interest rate rise will be gradual. In its report, the bank acknowledged the fact that consumption growth rate slowed in connection with the termination of the stimulus package, but predicted that costs will remain at sustainable levels.
Another news Asian trading was related to the mortgage agency Fannie Mae, although the market practically does not react to it. The mortgage lender said the need dofinansirovaniya $ 15 billion by the end of the year, after the 3 rd quarter, once again showed a net quarterly loss of $ 18.9 billion creditor has already received about $ 44.9 billion in federal government assistance on an agreement to acquire preferred shares. If the market is still decides to draw this to their attention, the desire to risk a sharp decrease.
Daily newspaper China Daily published an article stating that a sharp increase of deposits in China's largest bank may mean that a strong rally in the stock market and real estate market of the country, observed this year, reflects sustainable development, rather than the effects of large infusions of cash from central bank. The article states that the volume of deposits in the four largest banks, listing the country grew by 4.3 trillion. yuan ($ 629.7 billion) in the first half of 2009, while loans in those same banks rose by more than 3 trillion. yuan.
From today's report on employment in the U.S. market expects job cuts at 175 thousand and an increase in unemployment to 9.9%. If suddenly unemployment will rise to 10%, it would severely harm the interest of risk (although this is inevitable, and the market knows about it). It is in this part of the report may be hiding a nasty surprise. We have already noted that the poor showing in the employment component of the ISM index for the services sector is clearly a bad omen for today's report, though, judging by the report ADP, we can expect reduction in the rate of job losses. In general, we are waiting for some kind of lottery.
In addition to data on employment in the U.S., today's menu includes statistical unemployment in Switzerland, the PPI index in the UK and manufacturing orders in Germany. It is in the European session. In the American session and not miss unemployment in Canada and wholesale stores in the United States. On this weekend to meet "Big Twenty" in Scotland, but in terms of foreign exchange markets are not expected anything specific or identifiable, although some finance ministers may speak with the strengthening of their national currencies against the dollar.
The ECB, by contrast, was steadfast as a rock, although the Central Bank chairman Trichet at a press conference said a little more enthusiastically than anticipated by market participants. He called the level of interest rates "appropriate", however, after the words "not all the liquidity needed in the future, the euro came into the movement and rose to a one-week maximum.
On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, the U.S. productivity in the 3 rd quarter increased by 9,5%, which clearly reflects the impact of measures to stimulate and massive cuts in some plants. Weekly Report on applications for unemployment benefits showed only a slight improvement to 512 000 jobs lost from 532 000 the previous week and yesterday's report, together with ADP, which came out worse than expected, may dampen the report today on employment. Stock markets statistics relished, however, the connection between "strong stock markets - the weak dollar is" chattering slightly, as the dollar index closed down a slight increase. There is no doubt that it is the uncertainty surrounding today's report was the main driving factor in the currency market.
The leader of the movement in the Asian session was the Australian dollar (though the increase was about 30 points) after the release of quarterly reports the RBA's monetary policy. The main source of movement was the revision of the short-term forecast for growth in 2009 to 1,75% from 0,50% and in 2010 to 3,25% from 2,25%, while additional support has revised the forecast for the CPI index for the period until December 2010 inclusive, to the level of 2,25% (figure yet fit into the target inflation range of 2-3%). In general, it was a more positive assessment with less reserves than initially anticipated, however, the interest rate rise will be gradual. In its report, the bank acknowledged the fact that consumption growth rate slowed in connection with the termination of the stimulus package, but predicted that costs will remain at sustainable levels.
Another news Asian trading was related to the mortgage agency Fannie Mae, although the market practically does not react to it. The mortgage lender said the need dofinansirovaniya $ 15 billion by the end of the year, after the 3 rd quarter, once again showed a net quarterly loss of $ 18.9 billion creditor has already received about $ 44.9 billion in federal government assistance on an agreement to acquire preferred shares. If the market is still decides to draw this to their attention, the desire to risk a sharp decrease.
Daily newspaper China Daily published an article stating that a sharp increase of deposits in China's largest bank may mean that a strong rally in the stock market and real estate market of the country, observed this year, reflects sustainable development, rather than the effects of large infusions of cash from central bank. The article states that the volume of deposits in the four largest banks, listing the country grew by 4.3 trillion. yuan ($ 629.7 billion) in the first half of 2009, while loans in those same banks rose by more than 3 trillion. yuan.
From today's report on employment in the U.S. market expects job cuts at 175 thousand and an increase in unemployment to 9.9%. If suddenly unemployment will rise to 10%, it would severely harm the interest of risk (although this is inevitable, and the market knows about it). It is in this part of the report may be hiding a nasty surprise. We have already noted that the poor showing in the employment component of the ISM index for the services sector is clearly a bad omen for today's report, though, judging by the report ADP, we can expect reduction in the rate of job losses. In general, we are waiting for some kind of lottery.
In addition to data on employment in the U.S., today's menu includes statistical unemployment in Switzerland, the PPI index in the UK and manufacturing orders in Germany. It is in the European session. In the American session and not miss unemployment in Canada and wholesale stores in the United States. On this weekend to meet "Big Twenty" in Scotland, but in terms of foreign exchange markets are not expected anything specific or identifiable, although some finance ministers may speak with the strengthening of their national currencies against the dollar.
Saxo Bank
No comments:
Post a Comment