Monday, October 26, 2009

Food will never be so cheap again

Cleaning biofuel plants in the U.S. set new records on the use of grain for each month since May. Almost a third of U.S. corn harvest will be directed to the production of ethanol engines, which is 12% of the crop worldwide.

World grain reserves declined from 4 kneading in 2000 to 2.6 months, even though two unprecedented harvest in North America. China's reserves are at 30-year low. Asian stocks of rice are close to dangerous levels.

Agricultural products have suffered greatly because of reflyatsionnogo rally in metals, oil and everything else. Dylan Grice of Socialite General sees a "ground floor" price.

Wheat has fallen 70% since 2008. Corn fell by half. Prodkty agriculture were in Comma delimited within the last 6 months. This divergence within the commodity areas untenable, given the relationship of ethanol and petroleum.

For investors who want to cash in on a congested Rally - (The transport index of Wall Street and Russell 2000 have collapsed last week) is a great chance to cheaply pouchavstvovat in history, which later becomes an essential part of our lives.

Barack Obama has not walked away from Bush's policies on biofuels, in spite of food riots in several poor countries in the past year and a moratorium. A subsidy of 45 cents per gallon remains in force.

This motivation is strategic in nature. United States with enormous speed away from imported energy and will not be held hostage to oil again demagoguery, as well as not going to tolerate insults from countries that can not feed themselves. Beijing students, who laughed at the U.S. Treasury Tim Geitner (Tim Geithner) is hardly a good laugh last, because the U.S. is an agricultural superpower and soon opponents will understand why this is so important.

World population is growing, adding "another Britain" every year. The trend will continue until mid-century. By this time we will have 2.4 billion extra mouths to feed, which will need to feed.

China and Southeast Asia switch to animal protein, as the welfare of these countries is growing rapidly, as it was in Korea in the recent past. Requires approximately 3-5 kg. feed grain to get 1 kg. meat.

The report of Standard Chartered "The end of cheap food" refers to the fact that North Africa and the Middle East have already exhausted the reserve stock. These regions imports 71% of its rice and 58% of corn, and water scarcity is not possible to raise productivity. The population is growing very rapidly, fingers crossed, we can say that they will have to focus on imports.

UN says that global productivity in agriculture must grow by 77%, which implies a doubling of the Green Revolution Norman Vorlaga (Norman Borlaug). It will be difficult. Growth of output per unit area in China has decreased from 3,1% a year in early 1960 to 0,9% over the last decade.

"We've all heard terrible stories: precious topsoil is weakened due to agriculture, clouds of dust, covering the Asian skies, burnt the land become deserts, rivers dry up," - says Grice.

Since 2000. China loses almost 1400 sq.. square miles because of the appearance of deserts. The urban fabric is the fertile land in the east. Water from the Himalayan glaciers decline. Yellow River was reduced to "trickle", it no longer reaches the sea 200 days a year.

Farmers draining vodonesuschie layers. Environmentalists Ma Yun (Ma Jun) spoke about the Chinese water crisis and the fact that they have drilled nearly 1000 meters down, to use not reloadable water supplies. Cereal crops Basin Besin depend on 70% of irrigation groundwater.

Water problems in China are not unique. North India also lives at the expense of the Himalayan snows. We can not depend on the fertilizer, as it leads to a "threat of phosphate.

Can be Malthusians in this matter. Gray food guru Jim Rogers (Jim Rogers) is confident that the world is approaching the period when in some parts of the world we can not get a meal or at what price. He advises young people to learn from the farmer, and not to receive MBA, if they want to make serious money.

Grice remains optimistic, believing that human ingenuity will save us. You can use the rally of agricultural commodities, ivestiruya in exchange traded funds (ETF), but it's too over-regulated against speculation on food. There are ancient taboo against the practice.

Or you can invest in biotechnology, fertilizers, and companies that will make money and help solve the problem. Monsanto, Syngenta and Potash - a very popular company, but traded at relatively high prices. Golden Agri-Resources, Yara, Agrium and Bunge - are the best estimates of the coefficients.

Kingsmill Bond at Troika Dialog in Moscow Council of the Baltic company Trigon Agri as a way to earn on this story on the Eurasian expanse. He advises Razguliay grain, and fertilizer producer Uralkali.

Strictly speaking, the world has enough land to feed everyone. In the era of Khrushchev's Soviet Union handled 240 million hectares of land. At the moment, this area is 207 million hectares. Three states that the use of know-how crops can be doubled and trebled in Russia in the Ukraine. African farms can come back to life with the help of land registries, allowing villagers to use their property as collateral for a loan.

None of this can be done at the click of his fingers. What seems indisputable - is the fact that the ratio IMPORT and export prices between countries and cities will return to the norms of the Middle Ages. Landowners will again barons.



The Telegraph
October 25

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