Euro / yen remains under threat of further falls

Japanese currency continues to be in demand, and the combination of strengthening and weakening the overall position of the euro against the backdrop of the negative impact of news on the pig flu and potential write-offs in the banking sector in Europe has led the bulls on the euro / yen to keep hopes for continued recovery, at least in the short term. Euro / yen started the day with a decline, while to date, the pair managed to penetrate to a minimum fresh session, and although bidy in Y126.50 still constrain the pressure of sellers, dealers see the risks of a resumption of testing key support at Y126.00. This view, however, and analysts have Barclays Capital. They note that current conditions conducive to the strengthening Japanese currency in favor of whom spoke and the current technical picture, and warn that break below the said support will allow to count on the continuation of the original motion in the direction of Y125.25, and then to Y122.40/00. Interest in the sale of euro / yen is now seen in the area Y127.00/10, while larger Ofer located around Y127.50.

BNP Paribas lowered the forecast for the pound

BNP Paribas lowered the forecast for the pound against the backdrop of weak data on economic growth, a possible record budget deficit this year and talk about the decline in rating. How to find a bank, a significant deterioration in the financial situation of the country lead to higher debt levels to 70% of GDP, taking into account the high level of debt may lead to lower credit rating of Great Britain. The latter may significantly affect the ability of countries to finance the huge budget deficit. According to analysts BNP Paribas, by the end of June, the pound will be traded at 1.49 (last forecast of 1.58), and by the end of September (3 sq. km.) - To 1.51 (last forecast of 1.65). Similarly, the forecast for the pound against the euro at the same time periods of 95 and 96 pence per euro (last forecast of 90 and 88). By the end of 4 quarter pound / dollar will be traded at 1.52 (1.61) and euro / pound - at 0.92 (0.87). Now the pound / dollar was at 1.4556 and euro / pound - at 0.9027.

UniCredit holds a bear position on the pound

Dealers noted that the continuing demand for the British currency from corporate accounts has enabled it to stabilize and even recover the losses incurred earlier in the pair with the dollar and euro, but less tangible attempt to continue to attract growing interest of vendors. Bulls in the pound / dollar managed to overcome Ofer of $ 1.4575/85, and now they are trying to gain a higher, but at the same time meet with a good interest in selling in the region of $ 1.4590/00. Dealers noted that the break above the figure to continue the restoration of $ 1.4615/20 and $ 1.4640/50, and currency strategists UniCredit does not preclude such scenarios, however, doubt that after the latest data on GDP and the budget of the British bulls may expect significant growth. The bank believes that the risks of reducing the pound / dollar a marked increase in the break of support at $ 1.45, and if that happens, recommend to open short positions, noting that it is still adhere to the forecast for the end of the quarter at $ 1.38.

The situation is all the worse and worse

One hundred and three people died from swine flu in Mexico as of Sunday evening, 1614 hospitalized with symptoms of the disease, said Mexican Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova.
Previously, Mexican authorities have officially confirmed the death of 20 people from porcine influenza H1N1, the cause of 48 deaths so far is not clearly established. In the United States infected 20 people in Canada - six. The head of the World Health Organization (WHO), Margaret Chan said that the outbreak in Mexico has "the potential pandemic."
In Brazil, with suspected influenza hospitalized Mexican pork. Now he is in a hospital in the Brazilian city of Sao Paulo.
Physician Edmilson Calories from Institute of Infectious Diseases Emiliya Ribas told in interview to «Globe», that the patient had recently returned from Mexico where the disease has already led to the deaths of dozens of people. According to the doctor, 30-year-old citizen of Mexico, whose name is not called, feels good, but will be in hospital intensive care unit until he has made the analysis did not confirm whether or not refuted the version of the availability of pig influenza has not yet been recorded in Brazil, passes portal «NEWSru.com».
Porcine influenza infections, which the World Health Organization described as an emergency international level, for the time being confirmed in the United States, Canada, Spain and Mexico, where, according to official figures, 20 people have died from the virus. Suspected infection of swine influenza is also in France, Great Britain, New Zealand and several other countries. In the United States confirmed 20 cases of infection with porcine influenza virus.

Analysts see a continuing reduction in the risk dollar / yen

The outbreak of pig influenza virus in several regions of the world, has provoked growing concern to investors about the possible negative effects of this development on the already weak world trade, and in that time, as potentially this news looked bad for the dollar, the latter still managed to strengthen its position, given that investors have other reasons for concern. Meanwhile, in addition to the U.S. currency strengthening in demand today and felt the Japanese yen and the currency strategists Royal Bank of Scotland note that of the two currencies more attractive is the latter which is likely to continue to strengthen in the short term. Dollar / yen is now continuing to test bidy in Y96.50/40, and below the breakthrough opens the way for the next round of orders for the purchase of about Y96.00, and then to the support in the area of Y95.50. Meanwhile, BNP Paribas analysts see risks and more serious decline in the direction of Y95.05, noting that the statements by the representatives of China's intention to use foreign exchange reserves to provide additional support for the economy looks favorable for the Japanese currency.

United Kingdom, March 2009: Mortgages

Lending to businesses -1.0 billion pounds from 1.1 billion pounds of total mortgage lending of £ 8.9 billion to 9.2 billion pounds Mortgages 3.7 billion pounds from 3.9 billion pounds Number of approved applications for a mortgage loan 26 097 28 024

Calendar of main economic events of Monday, 27.04.09

Time (GMT +3)
Currency
Name of indicator
Forecast / Previous value
na - not available

10:00
EUR
GfK German Consumer Climate
The index of consumer sentiment from Gfc
2.3 / 2.5
10:00
EUR
German Import Prices m / m
The price index for imports
-0.2% / -0.1%
12:30
GBP
BBA Mortgage Approvals
Number of approved applications for mortgage loans
29.2K / 28.0K
20:45
EUR
ECB President Trichet Speaks
ECB President JC Trichet