Friday, February 27, 2009

Price and Time

2000 will go down in history of financial markets as a year of significant peaks of the bovine market in the stock market of the United States. However, there was another much less visible but no less important event for financial markets, which occurred in spring 2000. The magazine "Business Week" published April 17 article, entitled "The Alchemy can be gold." Article summarized a study of doctor Andrew Lo and his colleagues from the School of Applied Mathematics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Dr. Lo examined the image model (over 60,000) for over 30 years from 1962 to 1996gg. in an attempt to prove or disprove the secrets of technical analysis of graphic models.

Theory of Law is based on the premise that certain price patterns are repeated on actively traded markets. The results of the study can not be described as nothing other than amazing. Indeed, the classical image model such as "head and shoulders, double tops and bases," "pennants," "flags" and other popular models, not only were quite recognizable, but also has high Predicting the future price movement properties.

This recognition of academic science has been announced in the financial press as the final provision of the technical analysts to equal the playing field with the fundamental analysts. Statistically, the study proved that the study of graphical models can lead to dramatic results in the management of investment portfolios.

Price movements in actively traded markets are chaotic by nature. We can not predict what will be the next price movement - up or down. In doing so, no one can know how much he can do on the transaction (even if it is a profitable business). So, why did not even try to predict price movements? The answer is in the control of risk. Risk - this is the only factor in the equation of income and the risk that a trader can manage. Famous traders learn this lesson early in their trading career. "Take care of their losses and profits will take care of themselves," was the trade council, Amos Barr Hostettera, the founder of Commodity Corporation and mentor of many "market wizards."

In the chaos of market activity appear non-random patterns that are repeated and which can also be recognized. This happens because the markets can do only three things, rise, fall or move sideways. Unfortunately, they sometimes make it all on the same day. However, there are certain patterns that occur almost daily, giving the trader a valuable window of positive probability. Probability is the key word here! Traders are dealing with probabilities - and never with certainty. Only the two professions have to deal with the obvious facts - accountants and mortician.

There are even software tools for the recognition of image models, which automatically calculates the exact ratio of the previous price fluctuations. There are nonrandom model, because all the price fluctuations in the past have had the effect of future price fluctuations. That is why trade at recognizing patterns is predictable and acts as a leading indicator, as opposed to oscillators and moving averages, which are indicators of delay.

Knowledge of relations - this is the first step in recognizing the graphical model. Software tools can help the trader to calculate these ratios. This allows the trader to choose the price fluctuations in any temporal form of ticks and monthly schedules. Trader should then just select the type of trade on the graphical model, which is consistent with his style and strategy. Recognition model - it is just a key, but the decision rests with the trader. "Head and shoulders, pennants and flags, and many other models have these important relationships needed to confirm their consistency. Below is an example of application software tool for calculating the ratio of price fluctuations.

Knowledge of relationships is very useful for trading on the movement. The values inherent in their graphic representations of the past price fluctuations. Each price fluctuations is repeated at some future point in time. Calculate an index allows the trader to see not only the ratio of all variations, but the exact number of points in the oscillation. The knowledge inherent in the harmony of each movement is necessary for the understanding of future price fluctuations. Markets are expanding and converging in the ratios, which are laid down in the Fibonacci series summation.

Using ratios to recognize patterns better to wait a number of models and relationships to form and to complete them, as shown in the examples. This will take some time to understand the significance of this, but this time will be spent not in vain. The schedule for each market instrument has its own model and harmony. Find market-based instruments, which are symmetrical patterns that are easy to understand. This will allow you to explore the recognition of patterns in depth.

Time is the most elusive of all the technical indicators. Tool "Pesavento Map" very successfully arranged the key points in time to turn the trend in the intra-day trade. Based on the principle that markets can only increase, decrease or go sideways, the tool looks for similar patterns that occur past few days, and then determine the trading "card" in the next few trading hours. "Map" is not standing alone trading plan, and should be used with the points of support and resistance, and in accordance with the rules of money management. My personal experience has shown the successful use of "Maps" in the first hour of trade. The first hour of trading the financial press sometimes referred to as "amateur hour". Map has a tendency to give the best signals are input after the first hour of trading. Site may also be useful in the days when a strong trend is developing, which occur in approximately 15% of the time.

Below are two graphics that show the use of this tool. I used this tool for trading on 23 March at the ES. "Map" marked a red line. My goal was a temporary 10:30, and my price target was the level of recovery 0.618, marked by the green line.

The use of a combination of these two tools allows you to best take advantage of these tools. When the map indicates the price spread, and there are several key Fibonacci ratios, there is a perfect opportunity for trade. But this is only the probability, not certainty. Managed Funds and monitoring risk are central to trade. Using these two tools is not any exception, and before you use them when trading with real money, it is first to practice on virtual accounts.




www.ensignsoftware.com

Sound Reasoning in the financial markets


Market movement is unique, each subsequent movement of prices is not like previous.

I would like to make their arguments on the financial markets and to give his assessment of forces that have a significant impact on the movement of prices in the financial market. The task that I put in front of you, above all, is to maintain sound value judgments about the risks and opportunities when working in the financial market. Each investor, who came on the market, aims to make money and not lose the opportunity to invest next time that it was well earned. The Art of stable earnings in the financial markets to become a myth for some other reality.
While the financial markets for a long period of time and analysis of scientific prominent investors, I have come to the conclusion that money, and lose, the market really, with a probability of 50 percent. Sometimes you wonder why I, a man who devoted much time studying the market, people who are constantly engaged in trade and practical analysis of movements in prices took a neutral position, not arguing that money for ryke easily and effectively, or conversely, what to do money out of money - the challenge is unreal. And all simply because I believe that everyone at heart, or in its essence is born with some talent, that is, each of us, you, I or someone else has some hidden talent, or in another capacity, which are disclosed in the course of life.
By continually over the life of the party to which a person is, he can succeed faster than others, in this, and it is expressed by the art of individuality, each of us is a creator, but it is in fact what he knows. I dare to say that if you are now reading this article, then surely you have something inside that led you to it here. Therefore, I would like to congratulate you and say that you're on the right track.
I sincerely wish that everyone who reads this article has such a talent that would enable him to earn a professional in the market and successfully carry out financial transactions. But even if you do not get it today do not feel pain and failure. Because it can always do for you more.
There is a very interesting pattern, if you're doing a very long one in any case, sooner or later you will realize that you know much more than others. Perhaps, in this hidden secret of the success of every professional - ongoing work on the case which you are interested. Why do I say this in this article, and why I'm not even talking about this topic. In life there are times when it is not feel like working on for the represented purpose, it seems now I have so many did, but no results, gradually interest in the case that you are doing, begins to disappear and then people begin to seek a new deal more interesting at the moment . The result of all this is the ability to work in many cases little, but not in the case that started. Therefore, people who love their work on the law are professionals and are getting big goals in the chosen specialization. Thus is born professionals - people love their business, people who year after year, becoming smarter and more purposeful in the chosen specialization.
I think the right to assume that you are also standing on the right track because the financial markets and all that this is linked to your professional interest. I think that in ten years if you continue to enhance the study of finance, you will very wealthy and successful among the other investors.
Having such a small logical digression, I would like to go directly to the topic for which I began this article, and in particular independent reasoning successful acquisition of capital and loss of capital at work in the market with real money. When I enter into a transaction, I make financial transactions and try to adequately talk about that work with real tools for financial or stock markets is safe, and make it as easy as simply walk into the store for shopping. When someone claims to lose a considerable amount of money in the market that make the market does not really express and confirms exactly what he had lost a considerable amount of money, if not all paying attention to real examples of other successful investors and traders . I, in turn, loan the article neutral simply sensible teacher who will show you both the positive and negative sides of the market, but to earn a losing, or giving a professional money manager - is a personal matter for each, guided by the factors I quote.
There is a very interesting statement, which reads: Rich immediately invest, then spend, while the poor just spend the remaining funds to invest. So as soon as there are rich free money, it looks for ways to invest, in order not to lose and multiply money. Invest the money could be anywhere ranging from real estate to their own bed mattress, where no one ever finds your hard earned money. If a person inexperienced in the subject of investment, it just gives money under professional management, certainly not a big percentage, but it will not be thinking about what a report on unemployment and how to publish the Americans proreagiruet to this message market, because they rotate and my money. Give the money an investor can, in principle, consider that you are done, but what happens in reality. No doubt the investor is well qualified that by law allows him to call a professional. These professionals are rarely lose money, but profits are typically obtained by these professionals, will be divided between you and the bank or investment fund. So, get your money grow if you feel like doing their business. Of course, there is a likelihood that an investor may lose some small part, but it did not happen as often as professionals always know what to do in this or any other situation.

There are people who do not trust their money to people on a number of strange set of reasons. In this case, it is possible to offer another version of a financial investment, in particular, to form their investment package. The successful formation of the package could allow to obtain large profits or lose money. The key point in this case is possession of information to investors and the proper use of this information in financial transactions. In this case, the likelihood of getting more profits increased beyond this, and the risk of loss of capital is also increasing. Many are at such risk, and then either become professionals in their case or lose money in the market and go away forever, arguing that the money market is very difficult and even impossible for some.
A typical situation is how it all began: the market has come a trader, brought hundreds of green, of course he came in the hope of earning and saving time starts. It takes some time, a trader in a hurry make mistakes, which in turn leads to a loss of capital, he starts to panic and immediately seek aftergame do not think that if the market went against the first time and stop-loss record, it is possible that no long-run trends and market consolidation. Making a few deals - no deposit, a trader disappointed hopes, and their dreams of wealth evaporate into the heavens. As a result, he begins to argue that the money market is not realistic, what is it, strictly speaking, and human, as he showed it in practice.
Now we can see several views and principles. First - where real people make money in real time. Second - when fans try to make their own money and do gradually grow up to the professionals and the third are the losers. As a conclusion of this article can be said that, at the place you put yourself and to reach. Each initially gave me a place in the world, such as the loser does not think about how to achieve success, he simply sees the causes and results, not breaking the intermediate stage of success, consistent training, he loses. Professional immediately understood that in this life is not given immediately, and small pieces, so it slowly climbs to the summit. But it will stay there for a long time and still be able to help one person get there. But an amateur and will be continually engaged in the full enjoyment by investing some amount, losing and gaining, but its purpose will be to obtain aesthetic pleasure. Therefore:

All that the mind of man can comprehend and what can be achieved poverit.mozhno.
Adam J. Jackson.




President AlMaz Group Inc.
Alexander M. Mazurkevich

Interview with trader: Andy Bushak


Andy Bushak always been interested in trade. He traded, while he was in Annapolis, during his service in the Navy, and when he was a halfback playing football for the "Cleveland Browns". However, Andy did not consider his career as a trader when started, yet he has not received adequate commercial "education." In the interview, Andy talks about how he was educated in the trade. He is actively traded on his own account since mid-1980's, and sometimes sold to hedge fund. Currently, he works with Tom Joseph in the "Advanced GET" and regularly conducts seminars with Michael Kvanbekom.

Question: How did you start selling, and when you became interested in this?

Andy: I am interested in the markets for a long time, and the trade was something that I always wanted to do. I started to invest, when he was in the Naval Academy in Annapolis. I had a broker and invest in options. But I would not be describing this trade. I just took, trying to find their own way. I started my career in the trade after receiving what I call my "education" when I learned more about the markets and how to sell them. I did not understand this, when I was in the navy, after the academy in Annapolis. I thought that was supposed to get an education. I had to learn for themselves about the market in more detail. I could not rely solely on your broker. I do not think the broker knew what he was doing. I think this is my money, and I have to figure out how to trade them for yourself. When I realized that was supposed to receive proper education in the trade, I started to become a "trader". This period of education lasted from 1982 to 1985. I studied Elliott Waves, read a book on technical analysis. It made sense to me, although it was somewhat unusual. I understand that many people do not believe that technical analysis has any meaning, when they begin to read about it, especially the Elliott Waves. But, it made sense to me. At the time I sold some shares and options. But then I decided that if this approach actually works Elliott waves, and I understand these patterns, why such a confusion in options? Why the market is not in motion immediately? I want to know immediately, right or wrong I am. And then I began to trade futures.

Question: What was your major subject in college?

Andy: My main subject was the operational analysis, where I learned a lot about probability and statistics. After Annapolis, when I had fulfilled its obligations to Fleet, I have replaced a lot of different jobs. One of them was the navigator guided missiles. This was exactly the same way as trade in the markets. I used the sextant to the motion of stars to find out where I am. This work also used a large amount of mathematical information. When I spend seminars Mike Kvanbekom, he calls me "navigator." I studied to find out where I am in the market. I am also quite well with numbers and pricing information, this relates to Hanna, or Fibonacci. This seems to make sense to me.

Question: How do you form your initial trading capital?

Andy: I am not earning as much when he was in the navy, but I saved a few dollars there. I had the chance to play professional football, when left the Navy after a five-year contract. At a time when I served, I maintained contact with San Diego, Dallas and Cleveland. Dallas offered me a contract, just as Cleveland, but Cleveland was my home town, so I decided to play for him. I spent a year playing halfback, but was injured, and my football career ended. I hurt the knee. Then I went to Houston and worked for "Hewlett Packard" in five years. At a time when I worked for "Hewlett Packard", I got my "education." At first I viewed the old "Financial News Network". I started to sell only the main index in each market. I traded in futures, with no real-time data. My broker said that, I went mad and sent me to a portable device to monitor prices. At that time I was building market charts manually. I looked at what graphic models arise Fibonacci levels used to determine resistance and support. I moved into sales, working for "Hewlett Packard" and built the market of graphics at the same time. And the time when it was necessary to make a choice where to make money, so I left "Hewlett Packard" and began to sell full time.

Question: How do you have to work in the "Advanced GET"?

Andy: My wife and I decided to return to Cleveland, when I started trading full time. I read about the Tome Joseph (President of "Advanced GET") and Elliott waves in the journals on Futures, and I noticed that his company is close to Akron. I met with him and we chatted for several years. When my daughter was born and the house became too noisy, I had to find a place to trade. I said to him, and he offered me a seat. I sold for "Advanced GET" software. Instead, I got a place for trade and free access to the data.

Question: Are there still any advantage in the "Advanced GET"?

Andy: The workshops really helped my trading. Helping students to understand the trade, I actually traded during the workshop, and it helps me look at my trade from different perspectives. It helps me to return to normal. One problem, when I sold the house, was that I was feeling a little lonely. It was sometimes difficult, especially when I went at the wrong lane. Exit from the walls and the holding of these seminars helped me to confirm his trading strategy, it returns me to the rhythm. I get the opportunity to review their trading strategies with others.

Question: How do you think you had to overcome many obstacles in his life to become a trader?

Andy: I see my life as a passage through various stages. I went from one stage to another, and I try to succeed at any stage, in which I live. I am not inclined to look back. There was a time when I was in the Naval Academy, served in the navy, engaged in professional football, worked in the "Hewlett Packard" and where I am now. This is something that I always wanted to do. This is another sphere of life and age. I try to make every effort to do so.

Question: What you have done in another way, when they started to trade?

Andy: At the time I received the first automated system. I started using "Future Source" for quotations. It was a success. Until then, I had always been to build a pre-market schedules. However, the automated system makes the graphics for me. The only inconvenience - is that the system offers too much information. There is a tendency to look at more information than you need, which makes trade a little harder than they should be. I try to - the possibility to simplify it again. When you return to it, then realize that to succeed in this business need to try to keep it all as simple as possible.

Question: Do you think students in your seminars are trying to look too much different indicators?

Andy: Yes. We try to focus them back. Mike Kvanbek and I always say our listeners seminars to keep our system simple as possible. But I think it is a normal trend - look at too much unnecessary information, especially in terms of automation, and when, first learn to trade. The key, however, is concentrated on a few elements. Once you've done the analysis, there is nothing that more should be done. You must log in to trade and manage money. It is - everything.

Question: Managing money is a major part of trade?

Andy: Absolutely. Managing money - is the most important part. The question is not how many times you were right or wrong, but how little you have lost compared to how much you've earned.

Question: What do you do specifically in this area?

Andy: First, I look at the ratio of income to risk. Basically, it is rocking and correction. If you think that trend is going to continue in the same direction, then you're hoping to buy at correction. At this point, you can assess what will be the return, when you return back to the previous maximum Fibonacci and looking to rebuild, you can estimate the risk to be limited to stop order just below the minimum. Generally, I try to look for opportunities where I can at least have a ratio of 2 to 1 or more. I feel quite well in this location. Based on the ratio of winnings to the losers, I usually gain about 50%. As soon as you join together yield-risk and wins, losers, you all have taken into account.

Question: do you assess their attitude to the loser wins in numerical terms?

Andy: Yes I am doing well, but it is not important. The key is the ratio of return to risk, and then if your trading strategy is, the ratio of winnings to the loser will work by itself.

Question: What percentage of your account, you run the risk in a transaction?

Andy: This is an interesting question. I have separate accounts, so I look in the light of all the accounts and certify that I have enough cash. I am generally very conservative. My aggressive expense is approximately 20% of my full account. I traded in this account is very aggressive. I traded it in futures, currencies, and the like.

Question: What percentage of income you receive?

Andy: It depends on how the count - from aggressive or complete. By all accounts, where I sell everything and use different strategies (for example, shares with the use of positional trade), I'm trying to achieve revenue of approximately 20% or more. Now, with regard to futures and aggressive accounts, it is much higher. I am not trying to make excess profits, I just want to get 20-25% of their income on all your accounts. This year I have a little lag. Right now I am, probably for about 15%.

Question: How do you evaluate their work and how often you do it?

Andy: I have the check list. I try to evaluate their trade often enough. I think that everyone is doing some review, whether at the end of each trading day or at the end of trading week. I watch all the transactions back to the relative gains, losses, returns to risk, etc. and look for it.

Question: Have you ever installed a dollar goal?

Andy: I tried both options. The problem is that when you set a dollar goal, like $ 1000 a day, you only stay at $ 1000. Now I try to take as much as the market can give me on a certain day. Sometimes I sell only a few times. For example, today I traded twice and made a total of approximately $ 500. I was not very aggressive today. In contrast, the other day at a seminar on trade, I made $ 5,000 during the trading day, after four or five deals with the different sizes of items. I try to just stay on the positive side. Usually I try to make at least four figures on a daily basis.

Question: Do you think the score in the dollar could increase the voltage?

Andy: Sure it is, but if I can quickly determine where my stop-order and what is my risk, it reduces stress. Once you place a stop order, it reduces your risk and the tension immediately. I just look at it and appreciate what number I want to take risks. This applies not only to the level of stop-orders, but also a certain number of contracts. I can sell three, but I can sell five and ten contracts, but if the risk is not acceptable, I will adjust the amount of my contract.

Question: What was your biggest position, winning and losing?

Andy: I remember the time when I basically traded in the currency market. It was a good market, even for intra-day trading. Then the slack period, but recently the situation has returned back to normal. I remember one day when I traded for yen. I have made approximately $ 18,000 during the trading day, that was a good trade for me. But there have been terrible days? If people tell you that they did not have bad days, they lie. I now know that the only time that you remember as a terrible day - that day when you do not put any stop order. I remember one day when I was in the market. I was in their children and do not put any stop order. I should have done a little scamper with children, and by the time I returned, I bore the loss of approximately $ 10,000. It was awful. And the reason for this was that I did not put any stop order. That was a good lesson. If you limit your losses, you will not be a problem.

Question: It was the first time in your trade? You did not know about it?

Andy: Yes, I know, but it is something that relates to the internal condition. You find yourself in such a psychological condition in some moments when even the most simple things, like the installation of stop orders that elude you. You try to auto itself. Regardless of how you want to harm yourself, you should only put the stop-order. I am currently trying to be quite rigorous in the case of stop-orders.

Question: Do you think that there is an occasion for self-destruction?

Andy: Trade alone, but not in the group, is one of the most difficult things. As the battle? This - not necessarily the market. The battle ends with a direct yourself. This is the main reason why you should have very good rules to determine the transaction input and output. We talk to our clients, "if you were trading for less than five years, you - is still a novice." After five years, traders are those starting points, where they may harm themselves. They are structured, where they clearly define the rules that protect them, even against the tendency of self-destruction. If you are going to survive as a trader, you must follow these rules.

Question: Fear and greed cause people to violate the rules?

Andy: There is greed on the one hand and fear on the other side. Rather than be greedy, you should think about the fear of greater loss, and then simply hope for a big profit. Do not feel greed for more profits.

Question: That is to focus on fear?

Andy: Yes. We need to focus on fear. You must maintain its capital. Otherwise, you will not stay in this business. We want to make money, but there is one thing that I always say at the seminars - "what makes this business totally different from other types of business - is that it is a business where you should expect to lose money. Once you figure out how to lose and keep the losses are small, you really start to make money. "

Question: Have you been a mentor to trade?

Andy: No, and I regret that I did not have it. That would make my own study of the curve is much smoother and easier. When I began to actively trade, I learned of other traders. I have been familiar traders, who were equal to me, and it helped, but I think during my initial examination of the process, it would be much better to have a mentor.

Question: You keep the trade magazine?

Andy: I had a magazine. I actually print out charts and make notes to them, and keep a folder of all my transactions and everything else. Now, given the complete automation, etc., I can not print graphics, but I really keep track of their daily transactions. I say to myself, 'OK, today I had four deals, the five transactions and so on. " I look at their winning and losing the deal and determine its profitability and its risk.

Question: Did you ever try to control their thoughts and emotions?

Andy: I did that very often. I really do not do this because I think that connects them together. I encounter the same experience many times, so I do not need to monitor their emotions on purpose, but I have little to do so. I actually had a tag, where I tried to understand their emotions. I had the rules for themselves. For example, if I had four, five or six losses in succession, I would stop and take pause. I knew that something was wrong. Now that I look at it more in terms of money. If I have a period where for some reason, I have the minus 4% per month, then I say to myself, "Perhaps I should now cease to trade, because something is not working."

Question: When some psychological factors come to the fore?

Andy: Psychological problems occur with very large positions. I traded some for a friend who drove a great foundation. We knew each other for a long time and talked every day. When he was leaving on vacation, I traded in its accounts. One day, we traded in the currency market. The biggest deal that I ever made was on the yen to $ 80 million, subject to the credit leverage, that there exists. I thought, "I have never done before, and that if I suffered a loss?". I started to become uncertain. I questioned where to place your stop-order thinking and the desire to withdraw from the position. But, I was able to commit itself to the hands and feel comfortable selling the position of this size. It boils down to the reminder that you have done all that can be done. You do your analysis. You did your homework. You entered the market, and you already know what you are going to risk it. Once you become comfortable with the level of risk, which is laid in any transaction, then half the battle won. You should evaluate your previous transactions and look back, reminding myself that it works mathematically. You can stay, but if you keep doing a good deal, it will work. We again return to the availability of good rules. If you have a good rule, it results in the order of all the other methods that you may have.

Question: How can people develop a greater tolerance for risk?

Andy: Trade - this is just like learning to ride a bike. You can have a theoretical knowledge of how to ride a bicycle, but you must sit down and really try to go on it before you can actually learn how to do it. You can visit the many seminars and read many books and articles are very well educated about the markets, but you should really take to do so. You should go on this bike. You can start to go down. But if you have the proper equipment, you will not travmiruetes. You must understand that as long as you place your stop-order, you can make money regardless of your chosen strategy. As soon as you place your stop-order and manage their risk, right from this moment on, you begin to feel better and have greater tolerance for risk. You must become comfortable with the responsibility of following the rules in your trading. You have to develop some kind of trading strategy, and to be able to decide what to do next. You must open positions and to place stop orders. Do not doubt on your analysis - just manage the money. Once you begin to carry out this paragraph, the rest goes by itself.

Question: Did you do anything to prepare themselves emotionally and psychologically every day?

Andy: There is one thing I do. This is akin to preparing for the football game. What are you doing to prepare for the football game? For an entire week, you see the game the other team. You begin to look at the trends and everything else. Then, you practice. When it is time to play, you do not have to think. All you have to do - is to respond. I do the same when preparing for the trade. I try not to think. I try to just react. I have already made a part of their homework. I look at some long-term schedules. I am doing some constructing lines Hanna. I expect some good numbers as the levels of support and resistance. I collect information on the greater picture of the market. And then on the intra-day schedule as soon as the market starts to move and start to develop a model, what should I do - is to respond. This is easy. Positional trading works exactly the same, but we have a little more time to think about it. You make deals on their day, perhaps, according to a weekly schedule, but it is the same process. You did your homework, your market is in the area of trade, and you just react. If you have some good rules, you skip a lot of emotions, which may interact with the trade. As soon as you enter into a state in which you do not think too much, just react, and emotions are under control. The only way to achieve this state is to know his subject. If you know the command, which you opposed, which means that you have done your homework in advance, and become much easier.

Q: What if your opponents are trying to deceive you? What if you make a mistake?

Andy: Yes it is. As I said - this is one of the businesses where you should expect to lose money. When you think you know what might happen, or think you see a model that should be developed in some way, then remember that not always the case. You must accept this and say, "I am wrong." You must understand that you will not win all the time.

Question: How do you think your sports training to help you?

Andy: Yes. But if you want me to give you spisokpredyduschih professions traders that succeed in the trade, then it follows that the ex-pilots are quite good traders. They are used to follow the instructions. They also rely on their equipment. Good traders follow the instructions and trust in their trading strategies. The pilot could not fully know how the plane, but he trusts his equipment, and flies in an airplane, respectively. Other people who succeed in the trade - are former military and former athletes. Former athletes, especially some of the guys that I saw in the exchange hall, when he visited the Chicago exchange, try to make trade simpler. They do not have too many rules. They keep trading simple, do a little homework, and simply react to market conditions. These guys fit to computers, just to look at the price levels in each market, and then recorded the data and went to trade more. Their actions were based on what was happening around these price levels. They just react to them. They tried to keep trade fairly straightforward.

Question: Why do you think that some traders are starting too emotsianalny?

Andy: One moment, pointed to by Mike Kvanbek on this issue - he believes that they can not be adequately capitalized. If you do not have a good financial base, it can become quite emotional. You start to lose, and start to look at your dwindling capital. With a small capital market is easy to go against you. But if you are well capitalized, and you have rules that are quite clear, this issue is resolved. This can also work the other way. When you have too much money, you need to stabilize themselves on the level when you're not worried about the number of dollars. These two extremes are the primary, where people are the most emotional: insufficient capitalization and when you go to trade on big money.

Question: I think that being a soldier, especially in Annapolis, you were a good school with regard to discipline and following rules.

Andy: Yes, you're right. I think everything that relates to my education, my military experience, and professional sports have played a positive role in my ability to trade, manage their emotions and follow the rules.

Question: What are you most like to trade?

Andy: I do not even know what to choose. I remember when I started, after the stage of education when I started trading full-time, I could not wait when the next trading day. Even on weekends, I could not wait until Monday. The point is that I like to call. This is like a sport. I am going to compete. I have a game plan that I am going to try. I begin to act. I enjoy this part of trade. Now, when I think about it, perhaps trading - a business in which I was supposed to be. I can no longer be a sportsman. This is - a business that gives me the same kind of call that I received as an athlete.

Question: Is there anything else apart from trade, which brings you such excitement?

Andy: Yes, that's sport. I'm still going out and doing sports. Before this interview, I went to scamper, mash the muscles, joints. This helps to keep my head and my emotions in good condition. It clears my brain. This allows me to feel good. If you feel good, you feel confident, you have fresh head, and you are much better.

Question: What you do not like to trade?

Andy: It can rightly demand more time, especially when you're trading with someone else or to someone's money. This may become a necessity, especially if you are trading currency and you have open positions. You may have to stand up for the night, because there is a movement in Europe or Japan.

Question: Do you believe in maintaining a good balance in your life?

Andy: Of course, there is no doubt about this. You must have balance. This is definitely.

Question: How do you support it?

Andy: I have a family and I love them. I like my job, and I must find time to do so. I must find time to manage their money, and I must sell. I also conduct workshops and preparing educational material, which I really enjoy. In those days, I feel like in tone. Before I began to conduct seminars and sold the entire time I was not well balanced. Now, I feel better. My thoughts far better organized and I feel that trade is better.

Question: What is the emotional and psychological advice would you give novice traders?

Andy: In the book "The market wizards" my favorite quote was Paul Jones saying: "Now I spend my day trying to make themselves as happy and relaxed, as far as I can. If I have positions going against me, I immediately get out if they come in my direction, I hold them. " You do not want to keep the playback position for too long, but if you have a winning position, then you try to go to them until you can. I have this quotation has been glued to the computer, when I traded full-time. I think this is important. I also remember that my broker told me many years ago. I had a bad day, and he said, "in which direction the market moves from left to right on the screen?" I said, "He is moving up." Then he said, "so why are you in the short position?" That is, if the market moves up from left to right, then you should be in a long position. If it moves downward from left to right, you should be short. So do not worry about the fundamental data. See where the market is moving, there you are, and must sell. This is how the Elliott Wave. Do you have a movement upwards and there is a correction. As soon as there is movement down, and you will always hold a stop-order to manage risk, you have everything in order. It's easy.




www.innerworth.com

Engineering input

Many traders believe that a good reading of price charts automatically leads to a successful trade. Unfortunately, this is not the case. While the technical analysis and trading is highly interrelated, the reading of price charts do not require any capital or emotional effort. On the contrary, the real trade in the market requires both, associated with immediate risk of staying in the tough competitive environment.

Published hundreds of analysis and trade recommendations each month. But none of them will not bring the money in your pocket without good timing. This is a critical mistake to enter the market just because you saw a nice combination of graphics. The possibility arises only if you can find and implement a signal corresponding to the choice of a suitable time.

Precautionary entrance connects the gap between signal and trade. This is the door through which you assume the financial and emotional risk. There are many methods for selecting the time of entry into the market, but the three strategies are suitable for the majority of transactions with trading on the oscillations. The first is to log a certain breakthrough in the price level. The second relates to the expectation of correctional rollback after strong traffic and the entrance to the direction of motion about the support or resistance. In the third, to buy or sell should be within a narrow range before you begin the movement.

Which of these strategies will be the best sign for your next deal? Unfortunately, the correct answer will not be twice the same. Do not try to make the right entrance to the simple task of repeating. In fact, you should plan for each transaction in the context of the current market situation, the ratio of return to risk and the selected period of holding an open position. These additional conditions are a necessity, but not overly luxurious.
Let's look at these three entry strategies more carefully. After a while you understand how to select the best deal that you are going to implement. Keep in mind that several different strategies can work in the same market situation. The correct choice of strategy can provide more input to the emotional mood than the timing.

Buy on break up or sale, with breaking down is the only method of timing entry into the market, used by most traders. Unfortunately, this is also the "best" way out of the market. This technique is simple entrance. The price breaks through support or resistance level, and you go to open position. And then you pray that the price continued to move in this direction.

This is - a very dangerous way to enter the market. Trade looks great when the market moves in your direction, but what will you do if the market spread and go the other way? Surprisingly, most traders do not have a good answer to this important issue. Thus, they stiffen like the Rabbit in the boa, looking at the schedule, when faced with the cruel reality.

Persecution of the momentum may well work if the trader chooses to deal wisely and pay close attention to two important rules. First, always set your acceptable risks before trading. Choose a fixed percentage of the loss or use the graphical model in a shorter time scale for the output signal, if the market goes against you. Secondly, make sure that the broader market picture implies adequate support for your strategy.

Where do you hold? Many traders believe that they are too late, when they see that the breakthrough has already taken place. In fact, they are often too slow. It is often better to stand aside and wait to turn the market, rather than jump, along with the crowd. Sign in with corrective setback is a very powerful method because it uses the edge of the capital, who missed the first movement. But it is important to enter the market before they do, and to allow their enthusiasm to bring you profit.

Sign in with corrective setback is very sensitive to price. If possible, place an order where, as you would expect, the market will return after the break. This is actually easier than it seems. New trends frequently return to the previous level of support or resistance before going further. So, look at the pricing schedule and find the level where the initial breakthrough occurred. Corrective movements are often attracted by these important levels like magnets.

Login to the narrow range confuses many traders, but the theory is quite simple. Common sense dictates that the best time for the opening of a new position, just before the break up or down. The narrow range is characterized by low mobility, when conditions are ready for a large movement. Trader is a busy market in the price level and waits for the start of movement. The advantage of this method is that the position can be accessed with a small loss if the market breaks the other way.

Graphic model of accumulation, such as triangles, often reminiscent of Spring. This is a manifestation of the internal stress predicts strong future price movement. Traders can use classic indicators to determine the switching point for the movement. But the best option is to locate narrow range bars and reduce the amount directly to the key levels of support or resistance. Enter the market here, while others are still only prepared to pursue a breakthrough price level.




Forex Magazin
based on www.hardrightedge.com

Unknown pages In the Biography of George Soros

The dossier, which should be lower, based on the record bureau EIR (Executive Intelligence Review) at Wiesbaden in Germany, published on 1 October 1996, called "Summary of mega-speculator George Soros."

The magazine "Time" described the financier George Soros as "a modern Robin Hood, who rob the rich to give to poor countries in eastern Europe and Russia. It claimed that Soros makes huge financial profits spekuliruya against the Western central banks, and uses the profits to help the postcommunist economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union to help them create what he calls "Open Society."

The man who broke the Bank of England?
Analysis of clandestine financial networks, Soros is vital to understand the true dimension "problem Soros in eastern Europe and other countries.

After the crisis of the European exchange rate mechanism in September 1992., When the Bank of England was forced to abandon efforts to stabilize the pound sterling, from the shadow of a little financial shape, saying that he personally made a $ 1 billion in speculation against the British pound. Speculators were Hungarian origin George Soros, who wait the war in Hungary under false papers. Soros left Hungary after the war, and received U.S. citizenship after several years in London. Today, Soros is based in New York, but it says little about who he was and what he said.

After his impressive claims to possess "Midas touch", Soros has allowed public use of his name in an apparent attempt to influence the world financial markets.

Soros loudly announced in March 1993. That the price of gold should rise sharply: he said he had just received "inside information" that China is going to buy a huge kolichetvo gold for its rapidly growing economy. Soros was able to raise the demand for buying gold, which allowed prices to rise by more than 20% over four months to the highest level since 1991. And that is typical for Soros, when prostachki scrambled to buy, pushing prices higher, Soros and his friend Sir James Goldsmith secretly began selling their gold with a large profit.

Then, in early June 1993. Soros announced his intention to cause a sale of German government bonds in favor of French. In an open letter to the editor of the London "Times" Anatole Kaletskomu, Soros said "Down with the D-mark!" At various times, Soros attacked the currency of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Mexico, entering the newly opened financial markets which have little experience with foreign investors, which allows it alone, with large cash resources to manipulate the currency. Soros is beginning to market to buy assets in the local market, while the other is that naive to assume that he knows something they do not know. As in the case of gold, when the smaller investors begin to follow Soros, pushing prices up, Soros begins to sell, with its 40% or 100% profit. He then proceeds to other markets, and often, and to a new country in search of another goal for his speculations. This technique is called "hit and run."

The secret fund "Quantum Fund NV"
Soros is the visible side a vast secret network of private financial interests, managed by the leading aristocratic and royal names in Europe, centered in the British House of Windsor. The network, called its members "club Islands", was created after the collapse of the British Empire after World War II.

Instead of using the powers of the State to achieve its geopolitical objectives, has been developed by the network to stay in the private financial interests, tied to the old aristocratic oligarchy of western Europe. Center of the "Club of Islands" is the financial center - London. Soros is one of those in the Middle Ages were called - Hofjuden, "court Jews", which was deployed aristocratic families. The most important of such "Jews who are not Jews" are a Rothschild, who started his career thanks to Soros.

Soros is American only on the passport. He - the global financial operator, who happens falls in New York, simply because there is money. Soros speculates in world financial markets through its offshore company "Quantum Fund NV", a private investment fund. His hedge fund reportedly manages some $ 11-14 billion of investors' funds, the most prominent of whom, according to Soros, is the British Queen Elizabeth.

"Quantum Fund" is registered offshore in the Netherlands Antilles in the Caribbean Sea. This helps to avoid taxes and conceal the true nature of his investors and what he is doing with their money.

Soros has taken care that none of the 99 frequent investors who participate in its various funds was not an American. Under U.S. law on securities, hedge funds should not include more than 99 wealthy investors, the so-called "sophisticated investors". In creating its investment company as an offshore hedge fund, Soros avoids public research.

Soros himself is not even in the government "Quantum Fund". Legally it is an investment adviser "Quantum Fund" from another company "Soros Fund Management" in New York. In the board of directors "Quantum Fund NV" as not a single American citizen. His directors are Swiss, Italian and British financiers.

It is clear that Soros and the Rothschild chose not to show their relationship, nor does it advertise its links to London, the British Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Israel and American influential circles. Therefore, a myth, that Soros is the sole financial "genius" who through their talent detect future changes in the markets, has become one of the most successful speculators. According to those who did business with him, Soros never makes important steps without a substantial investment information on the person.

The board of directors of "Quantum Fund NV" Kets is Richard, a man Rotshilda, who is also a member of the board "London NM Rothschild" and is the head of "Rothschild Italia SpA" in Milan. Another link with the family Rotshildov is another member of the board of "Quantum Fund" Nils O'Taube partner the London investment group "St. James Place Capital", which is the main partner of Lord Rothschild.

Frequent business partner of Soros in various speculative matters, including the manipulation of the gold in 1993., It's not related to the "Quantum Fund" directly, is an Anglo-French speculator Sir James Goldsmith, a family cousin Rotshildov.

From the first days when Soros created his own investment fund in 1969. He was bound to its success to its relation to the banking network of family Rotshildov. Soros worked in New York in the 1960's in a small private bank was closely associated with the Rothschild, namely, "Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder. Inc.", Bank name, representing the interests of Rotshilda in Germany during the time of Bismarck. To this day, "A. and S. Bleichroeder. Inc." remains the primary holder, along with the "Citibank", the funds "Quantum Fund" Soros. George K. Karlvays associated with the scandalously famous "Rothschild Bank AG" in Zurich, gave Soros of seed capital and led the first investors in his "Quantum Fund".

Patronage Rothschild
The attitude of the financial terms of the Soros Rothschild is not accidental. Will make a small digression into history to explain the extraordinary success of a mere private speculator, and a strange ability to Soros "to play" so many times on these high-risk markets. Soros has access to "inside information" in some of the highest government and private offices in the world.
Since World War II, the Rothschild family tried to create a public myth about its own insignificance. The family spent substantial sums to create the image of a family of wealthy, but quiet "gentlemen", some of whom prefer to do fine French wines, some of which have dedicated themselves to philanthropy. They were involved in the creation of Israel and other high-profile projects, but in addition to such public events, were less plausible case that the family prefers to keep away from its headquarters in London and hold over their less well-known branches, such as "Zurich Rothschild Bank AG "and" Rothschild Italia of Milan "- the bank of Soros partner Richard Ketsa.

According to former CIA officer familiar with the case of Soros, the "Quantum Fund" to accumulate capital (over $ 10 billion), with the help of a powerful group of "silent" investors who have allowed Soros to build capital to disrupt the financial stability in Europe in September 1992.

Soros is one of several important tools for economic and financial control "Club Islands. Because of its connection with their interests had not been previously highlighted, it serves a very useful function for the oligarchy, as in 1992 and 1993, when he began his assault on the European exchange rate mechanism.

While Soros speculation played a significant role in the final withdrawal of British Pounds from the mechanism of exchange rates, it would be wrong to consider his actions as "anti-British." Soros began his education in London, where he studied under Karl Popper and Friedrich von Hayek at the London School of Economics.

Business Soros with Sir James and Lord Goldsmitom Rotshildom approached him to circle Tetcher wing British establishment. Helping to break the UK from the European exchange rate mechanism in September 1992. and has earned at more than $ 1 billion, Soros helped the long-term goal of the wing Tetcher in reducing the economic stability of continental Europe. Starting with the 1904g. This is a British geopolitical strategy - to oppose, by all means is, any economic ties between the economies of continental Europe, especially with regard to the relationship of Germany with Russia and the countries of Eastern Europe.




William Engdal
www.freerepublic.com

Trade on the Moving Averages Principles


Read price charts with moving averages like to cook a pie without butter or eggs. These simple lines above or below the current price may be much to tell, and their use in interpreting the market is truly unprecedented. Simply put, they are the most valuable indicators in technical analysis.

You can trade without moving averages, but in doing so, you are very much at risk. Eventually, these lines represent median levels, where market players are taking an important decision to buy or sell. Therefore, it is reasonable to predict that they are going to do before, not after.

The following is the 15 principles that you can use when trading in the moving averages:

1. 20-day Moving Average is usually short-term notes the trend, the 50-Day Moving Average - the medium-term trend, a 200-day Moving Average is an indicator of long-term market trend.

2. These three Moving averages are a natural boundary for the price correction. Two arguments speak in favor of these values: First, they determine the level, where the withdrawal of profits and losses must take weakened after a strong price movement. Second, their general recognition encourages market players to make self-realization of this strategy, whenever the price is close to those levels.

3. Moving averages submit false signals when the side of trade, because they are indicators, following the trend, which is measured upstream or downstream momentum. They are losing their effectiveness in the markets showing little or no movement in prices.

4. Characteristics of moving averages changes as soon as they are smoothed and turns. Turn of the rolling average of the horizontal position indicates a loss of momentum for this time format. This increases the chances that the price of crossing Moving Average is relatively easy. When Moving averages of different lengths arranged in a horizontal line close to each other, the price often fluctuates back and forth across these lines, creating a lot of "market noise".

5. Moving averages of permanent signs, because they are formed directly on top of the price. Their relative correlation with the development of the price varies with each bar. They also demonstrate a strong relationship in the form of convergence - divergence from all other types of support and resistance.

6. Use the Exponential Moving averages, or EMA, for longer temporary format, but go to a simple sliding average, or SMA, for shorter time formats. EMA attach more weight to recent changes in price, while the SMA considers each quotation to the same.

7. Short-term SMA allow a trader to understand how to operate the other players. The market audience using simple Moving averages, because they do not understand the Exponential Moving averages. Good intra-day signals are more reliant on what they think other market participants rather than on the technical side of the situation.

8. Place five to eight - and 13-SMA periodnye on intra-day charts to measure the strength of short-term trend. With the strong movements Moving averages build the line and point in the same direction. But they are separated by one at the maximum and minimum, while the price, finally, do not go in another direction.

9. Location of the price on 200-day moving average defines the long-term investor psychology. Bulls live above the 200-day moving average, while the bears live below it. Dealers absorb regenerative rally below the "line in the sand, while buyers come to the rescue above it.

10. When the 50-Day Moving Average crosses the 200-day Moving Average in any direction, it predicts a significant change in the behavior of buyers and sellers. When the 50-Day Moving Average rises above 200-day moving average - this is called a "golden cross", while Medvezhye intersection is called the "death cross."

11. For the price more difficult to break above declining moving average, the higher the rising moving average. Conversely, the more difficult for prices to fall after rising Moving averages than declining moving average cost.

12. Moving averages set in different time periods show the speed of the trend through their relationships with each other. Measure it using the classic indicator MACD, or using multiple Moving averages to your schedule and see how they diverge or converge over time.

13. Place a 60-day Moving Average volume for the green and red bar graph below the level of the price schedule to determine when a session showed an unexpected interest. Tilt the rolling average also identifies the hidden pressure of buyers or sellers.

14. Do not use long-term sliding average, to make short-term forecasts, because they will be abreast of current events. The trend may already be mature and closer to its end to tomuvremeni when the Moving Average submit buy or sell signal.

15.Urovni support and resistance determined Moving averages, where they diverge and converge together. See, when a rolling average bounce off of another moving average, rather than immediately break through it, confirming in this way, support or resistance. After the crossing, finally took place, this level becomes a support or resistance for future price movements.




Forex Magazine
based on www.hardrightedge.com

Price Oscillator

Price Oscillator - This indicator is based on the difference between two Moving averages, and expressed as a percentage or in absolute values. Price oscillator, expressed in percentages, respectively, called the percentage price oscillator (PPO - Percentage Price Oscillator), a price oscillator, expressed in absolute values, is called the Absolute Price Oscillator (ACO - Absolute Price Oscillator). The number of time periods may vary depending on the preferences of the user. For daytime schedules may be preferred over long sliding average to filter out of the "market noise" associated with daily price movements. For weekly charts, which are already filtered, part of the "market noise", can be considered more appropriate for shorter Moving averages. It may also be imposed subsequent rolling average for use as a pulse line, just as in indicator MACD.

Absolute Price Oscillator (APO)
Absolute Price Oscillator (APO) is calculated by subtracting the longer moving average from the shorter moving average. See picture number 1


10 - periodnaya Exponential Moving Average (EMA) minus 30 - periodnaya Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

The values and form a line of an oscillator that fluctuates above and below zero, according to the difference in moving averages. If a short Moving Average is above a long moving average, the indicator will be positive. If a shorter rolling average is below the longer moving average, the indicator will be negative.

Indicator MACD, which is calculated as the difference between two exponential sliding average, is essentially the equivalent of APO. And if the software used for graphic display of price data, there is no indicator of APO, then you could easily be used an indicator MACD.

Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO)
Percentage Price Oscillator is calculated by subtracting the longer moving average from the shorter moving average and then the result is divided by the value of a long moving average. See picture number 2


(10 - periodnaya EMA minus 30 - periodnaya EMA) divided by 30 - periodnuyu EMA

This formula shows the difference between the two sliding average as a percentage of the longer moving average.

Absolute or percentage
Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) and the Absolute Price Oscillator (APO) is served almost the same signals and are essentially the same form. All crossing the median line, as well as the crossing, which occurs when a short Moving Average crosses above or below the longer Moving averages come in one at the same time. However, because the PPO is calculated on the basis of per cent, the form of his lines may differ little, but important nuances of the form of lines of APO. Below is a schedule of the index "Nasdaq Composite", which illustrates some of the differences that may arise unexpectedly.
1. The green circle indicates that the PPO has formed boleenizky a maximum in December, while the APO has formed a higher maximum.
2. Later in December, APO continue higher, and PPO started smoothed. (red arrows) 3. In early January, PPO showed a lower minimum, which was one day earlier than the APO.


There are two main reasons to use the Price Oscillator Percentage rather than absolute price oscillator.

1. In the case with the percentage price oscillator, it is possible to compare the price levels of the oscillator between the two market-based instruments. Value PPO +5% means that over a short Moving Average of 5% higher than the longer moving average cost. The value per cent is comparable with other market-based instruments, regardless of the price of the instrument. Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) for the SLB has reached only 3% of their peaks, while the index "Nasdaq Composite" rose above 7%.
2. Percentage Price Oscillator provides a better balance between the two moving average cost. The difference between two Moving averages shown on the shorter moving average. This allows you to compare values between the periods of time, regardless of the price of market-based instruments. In the case of the absolute price oscillators, the higher the price of market-based instruments, the greater the extremes oscillator. With the percentage price oscillator compare shares "Amazon" after a certain time, perhaps regardless of where the stock price in the region of 10 or 100.


PPO - histogram
As the Price Oscillator and MACD are so similar, the concept of MACD-Histogram was applied to the PPO. PPO-Histogram shows the difference between the PPO and the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the PPO. The schedule is presented as a histogram, so that crossing the median line and the divergence were easily identifiable. The same principles that apply to the MACD-histogram is also applicable to PPOgistogramme.

The intersection of the median line for the PPO-Histogram is the same as the intersection of the moving averages for the PPO. If the PPO is more than the value of its 9-day EMA, then the value for the PPO-histogram will be positive. On the contrary, if the PPO is less than the value of its 9-day EMA, the importance PPO-Histogram will be negative.
Further increase or decrease promezhutkamezhdu PPO and its 9-day EMA would be reflected in the PPO-histogram. The sharp increase in the PPO-histogram indicates that the PPO increases faster than its 9-day EMA, and means that the bullish momentum has increased. The sharp decline in PPOgistogramme indicate that PPO is falling faster than the Moving Average and mean that the bearish momentum is increasing.


For more information on the interpretation of this indicator and its signals, see our article on the oscillators and MACD in past issues of the journal.




Forex Magazine
based on stockcharts.com