Attempts to reduce the euro / pound remained limited, while continuing to attract the attention of buyers, and a currency strategist BNP Paribas noted that this may partly be due to fears of investors about the prospects of development of the situation around Dubai World. Dubai has large investments in the real estate sector and the market shares of the UK, and they said that Abu Dhabi can insist on a partial sale, as a condition of assistance to the emirate. At BNP Paribas also noted that at present remains favorable for the bulls and the technical picture, and stick to the forecast year-end level stg0.92, though still skeptical about the longer-term prospects for the euro / pound.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Mizuho: monthly closing of the dollar / yen below 87.00 will confirm the bearish trend
Pair dollar / yen fell back on Friday from a 15-year low of 84.80, however, unable to rise above the 87.00 area, which currency analyst at Mizuho attach particular importance. Bank strategists believe that if the dollar / yen will last is now below this area, where the 38% Fibonacci Retracement and 9-day moving average, a bearish pressure will increase, and close below 87.00 would be the basis for the preservation of bearish trend in the medium term. As levels of resistance bank analysts put 86.55, 87.00 and 87.45. Supported by speakers mark of 86.00, 85.20 and 85.00. At the moment pair dollar / yen is at 86.10.
Nordea advises buying euro / pound to decline
Euro / pound so far managed to break through to fresh highs, but Offer near stg0.9140 again kept the bulls, and now the couple is held around stg0.9112. Ongoing consolidation, however, seems constructive, and currency strategist at Nordea, paying attention to improve the technical picture of the couple, advised attempt to reduce the use of the euro against the stg0.9050 for shopping with a stop at stg0.8925 and purpose in the stg0.9350.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Friday, November 27, 2009
United World Capital Ultimate Bonus
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Index of confidence in the euro-zone economy is growing eighth consecutive month
Index of confidence in the euro-zone economy (Euro-Zone Economic Confidence) for November was 88.8 points, reports the European Commission. The value index surpassed expectations of analysts, forecast an increase to 87.4 points. A month earlier figure stood at 86.1 points (revised from 86.2 points). Note that the index continuously improves during the eight months.
Index of consumer confidence (Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence) was -17 points for November, compared with -18 points in October. The value of the line with the projections of analysts.
The index of confidence in the business community (Business Climate Indicator) was -1.56 points for November, when the previous value of -1.78 points (revised from -1.79) and -1.65 points prognosis.
Index of consumer confidence (Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence) was -17 points for November, compared with -18 points in October. The value of the line with the projections of analysts.
The index of confidence in the business community (Business Climate Indicator) was -1.56 points for November, when the previous value of -1.78 points (revised from -1.79) and -1.65 points prognosis.
The balance of total retail sales CBI Britain at the maximum level since November 2007
According to a survey of the British Confederation of Industrialists (CBI), the balance of total retail sales (Retail sales volume balance) was 13% for November compared with 8% a month earlier. However analysts have predicted that figure will increase to 11% over the reporting period.
It should be noted that this maximum value of the index since November 2007. According to preliminary data CBI, in December, the balance of total retail sales will increase to 19%.
British Industrialists Confederation represents the interests of 20 000 enterprises, which provide 40% of employment in the retail sector. The November survey is based on survey 158 firms.
It should be noted that this maximum value of the index since November 2007. According to preliminary data CBI, in December, the balance of total retail sales will increase to 19%.
British Industrialists Confederation represents the interests of 20 000 enterprises, which provide 40% of employment in the retail sector. The November survey is based on survey 158 firms.
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to 466 thousand
The number of primary applications for unemployment insurance in the U.S. declined for the past week to November 21 to 35 thousand to 466 thousand
economists had expected a rate reduction of up to 495 thousand mark was below the critical level of 500 thousand for the first time over the past 54 weeks.
The number of Americans continuing to receive unemployment benefits dropped for the week to November 14 by 190 tons to 5,423 million.
economists had expected a rate reduction of up to 495 thousand mark was below the critical level of 500 thousand for the first time over the past 54 weeks.
The number of Americans continuing to receive unemployment benefits dropped for the week to November 14 by 190 tons to 5,423 million.
Orders for durable goods in the U.S. fell by 0,6%
The volume of orders for durable goods from U.S. producers fell in October at 0.6% against a background of falling demand for engineering products. Recall that in September, orders rose by 2%.
Economists expect improved performance in the reporting period by 0,5%.
Orders for durable goods excluding orders for vehicles fell by 1,3%.
Economists expect improved performance in the reporting period by 0,5%.
Orders for durable goods excluding orders for vehicles fell by 1,3%.
UK GDP fell by 0.3% in the III quarter
According to revised data from the National Statistical Office, UK GDP fell by 0.3% in the third quarter of this year compared with a preliminary estimate at -0.4%. On an annual basis has declined by 5,1% (revised from -5.2%).
Recall that in the second quarter GDP showed a decline of Britain 0,7% in monthly terms, and on 5,5% annual.
The index of activity in the services sector for three months, including September, amounted to -0,1%, as well as for the previous reporting period. Rate projected at 0.0%.
Recall that in the second quarter GDP showed a decline of Britain 0,7% in monthly terms, and on 5,5% annual.
The index of activity in the services sector for three months, including September, amounted to -0,1%, as well as for the previous reporting period. Rate projected at 0.0%.
How to feed the world
In 1974, Henry Kissinger (Henry Kissinger), then Secretary of State, spoke at the first World Food Conference that no child will go to bed hungry in 10 years. Slightly more than 35 years later, during a UN food summit in Rome, 1 billion people go to bed hungry.
Promise Kissinger failed and will continue to get worse. None of the agricultural problems that led to a surge in food prices and the increased number of hungry in 2007-2008, has not been resolved. In 2050 the world population will grow by one third, but the demand for agricultural products will grow by 70%, the demand for meat will double. This growth is in some sense can be considered good news because it means the growth of welfare in poor countries and middle-income countries. However, this growth would be achieved without development of a large number of new land by farmers (there are some opportunities for expansion, but the small ones) and without the use of large quantities of water (in some parts of the world's water supply is very problematic or worse). Moreover, this growth will occur against the background of the struggle of farmers with the consequences of climate change, which will ultimately do more harm than good for the farmland around the world.
May already be too late to avoid a new round of price increases. Despite the global recession and the biggest grain harvest recorded in 2008, food prices are rising again. However, in countries now have a brief opportunity for the approval of long-term pricing policy, without the distraction of panic measures. Politicians need to do two things: invest in the productive capacity of agriculture and improve the functioning of food markets.
The Government made the first but not the second. Over the past year, investment is growing faster than expected. But distrust of markets and the reaction against farm trade, grow. If the government not keep these impulses, they will reduce the profit from the growth of investment.
A quarter century of inactivity
Over the past 25 years, investment in agriculture declined relentlessly. In 2005, most developing countries have invested about 5% of government revenue in agriculture. The share of Western aid devoted to agriculture fell by about three-quarters between 1980 and 2006. This reduction in investment performance hit. During the green revolution in the 1960's, productivity grew by 3.6% per year. Now, this growth is only 1-2% per year in poor countries, the yield does not increase at all.
Fortunately, the jump in food prices in 2007-2008 forced the government to wake up from the 25-year neglect of this issue. World Bank and many developed countries has doubled investment in farming in poor countries. In themselves poor countries, agriculture ceased to be a minor matter for the government, and if the Minister of Agriculture to do something - it becomes an event that should be concerned about everyone. That's how it should be: agriculture, undoubtedly, is the most important economic activity in poor countries.
Part of the new expenditures of public funds account for insurance of poor farmers, which is also the basis for poverty reduction: three-quarters of the world's poor live in rural areas. However, ultimately, the money will bring dividends, will be established only if the access of farmers to markets. Lack of reliable markets - is a great obstacle to rural development, because without this, farmers have no incentives for efficient growth. Therefore, development of roads in rural areas is welcome, as well as measures to increase the quality of the local markets (for example), dissemination of information on prices and the construction of silos. There is also a sense in the temporary subsidies better seeding and fertilizing the land in countries where local markets can not ensure this, all these measures can serve as an example of correct market failure.
Stimulating food production without the development of new land and water use will also require new technologies that will play an increasingly important role in the next 40 years than it did in the past 40, when people are somehow lived through the results of the Green Revolution. Technologies involves many things: drip irrigation, no-tillage treatment, more efficient use of fertilizers and pest control. One way to increase yields clearly stands out: the development of genetically modified (GM) crops, which, for example, requires less water. GM crops may become more acceptable if they are developed in state institutions, rather than in large private companies, and seedlings will be given, rather than sell.
I'm not alright, Jack
There is, however, the danger inherent in all activities of government: the temptation to self-sufficiency. Rising food prices in 2007-2008 led all countries rightly worried about the "continuity of food supply. However, over the past year "continuity" (meaning that should be enough for subsistence) was shaded by "self-sufficiency. Self-sufficiency has become a common priority for policy in many countries.
Self-sufficiency in itself is not bad. If poor countries have a comparative advantage in producing their own food, these must be used (many will do so). The problem is that the new rhetoric of self-sufficiency coincides with increasing distrust of markets and trade. Importers of grain is no longer trusted by the world markets in ensuring their needs. Illegal invaders "fall upon the land overseas to grow food. Everywhere, governments are more actively take part in agriculture through subsidies on capital investments. In these circumstances, self-sufficiency can be easily vovzvesti security barrier.
It is not beneficial to anyone. As shown by the European experience over the decades, the pursuit of self-sufficiency, especially excessively wasteful. Self-sufficiency and would lead to the freezing of the structure of agricultural production at the very moment when climate change affects various parts of the world in different ways, and trade between them is more important.
Promise Kissinger failed and will continue to get worse. None of the agricultural problems that led to a surge in food prices and the increased number of hungry in 2007-2008, has not been resolved. In 2050 the world population will grow by one third, but the demand for agricultural products will grow by 70%, the demand for meat will double. This growth is in some sense can be considered good news because it means the growth of welfare in poor countries and middle-income countries. However, this growth would be achieved without development of a large number of new land by farmers (there are some opportunities for expansion, but the small ones) and without the use of large quantities of water (in some parts of the world's water supply is very problematic or worse). Moreover, this growth will occur against the background of the struggle of farmers with the consequences of climate change, which will ultimately do more harm than good for the farmland around the world.
May already be too late to avoid a new round of price increases. Despite the global recession and the biggest grain harvest recorded in 2008, food prices are rising again. However, in countries now have a brief opportunity for the approval of long-term pricing policy, without the distraction of panic measures. Politicians need to do two things: invest in the productive capacity of agriculture and improve the functioning of food markets.
The Government made the first but not the second. Over the past year, investment is growing faster than expected. But distrust of markets and the reaction against farm trade, grow. If the government not keep these impulses, they will reduce the profit from the growth of investment.
A quarter century of inactivity
Over the past 25 years, investment in agriculture declined relentlessly. In 2005, most developing countries have invested about 5% of government revenue in agriculture. The share of Western aid devoted to agriculture fell by about three-quarters between 1980 and 2006. This reduction in investment performance hit. During the green revolution in the 1960's, productivity grew by 3.6% per year. Now, this growth is only 1-2% per year in poor countries, the yield does not increase at all.
Fortunately, the jump in food prices in 2007-2008 forced the government to wake up from the 25-year neglect of this issue. World Bank and many developed countries has doubled investment in farming in poor countries. In themselves poor countries, agriculture ceased to be a minor matter for the government, and if the Minister of Agriculture to do something - it becomes an event that should be concerned about everyone. That's how it should be: agriculture, undoubtedly, is the most important economic activity in poor countries.
Part of the new expenditures of public funds account for insurance of poor farmers, which is also the basis for poverty reduction: three-quarters of the world's poor live in rural areas. However, ultimately, the money will bring dividends, will be established only if the access of farmers to markets. Lack of reliable markets - is a great obstacle to rural development, because without this, farmers have no incentives for efficient growth. Therefore, development of roads in rural areas is welcome, as well as measures to increase the quality of the local markets (for example), dissemination of information on prices and the construction of silos. There is also a sense in the temporary subsidies better seeding and fertilizing the land in countries where local markets can not ensure this, all these measures can serve as an example of correct market failure.
Stimulating food production without the development of new land and water use will also require new technologies that will play an increasingly important role in the next 40 years than it did in the past 40, when people are somehow lived through the results of the Green Revolution. Technologies involves many things: drip irrigation, no-tillage treatment, more efficient use of fertilizers and pest control. One way to increase yields clearly stands out: the development of genetically modified (GM) crops, which, for example, requires less water. GM crops may become more acceptable if they are developed in state institutions, rather than in large private companies, and seedlings will be given, rather than sell.
I'm not alright, Jack
There is, however, the danger inherent in all activities of government: the temptation to self-sufficiency. Rising food prices in 2007-2008 led all countries rightly worried about the "continuity of food supply. However, over the past year "continuity" (meaning that should be enough for subsistence) was shaded by "self-sufficiency. Self-sufficiency has become a common priority for policy in many countries.
Self-sufficiency in itself is not bad. If poor countries have a comparative advantage in producing their own food, these must be used (many will do so). The problem is that the new rhetoric of self-sufficiency coincides with increasing distrust of markets and trade. Importers of grain is no longer trusted by the world markets in ensuring their needs. Illegal invaders "fall upon the land overseas to grow food. Everywhere, governments are more actively take part in agriculture through subsidies on capital investments. In these circumstances, self-sufficiency can be easily vovzvesti security barrier.
It is not beneficial to anyone. As shown by the European experience over the decades, the pursuit of self-sufficiency, especially excessively wasteful. Self-sufficiency and would lead to the freezing of the structure of agricultural production at the very moment when climate change affects various parts of the world in different ways, and trade between them is more important.
The Economist
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Internal Bar Strength (IBS) MT4 Indicator
Calculation:
It is calculated as the moving average of the values of the internal bars strength that represent the ratio (Close-Low)/(High-Low) * 100% for each of them.
How to use:
The period that is equal to five bars is usually used. The crossing of 60% level means the overbuying and the crossing of 40% level means overselling, and so they are the signals for selling and buying respectively.
It is calculated as the moving average of the values of the internal bars strength that represent the ratio (Close-Low)/(High-Low) * 100% for each of them.
How to use:
The period that is equal to five bars is usually used. The crossing of 60% level means the overbuying and the crossing of 40% level means overselling, and so they are the signals for selling and buying respectively.
Download
IBS.mq4
VKW Bands - IBS MT4 Indicator
Indicator WKBIBS - yavlyaetsya oscillator new generation with combined functions 2 indicators WKB and IBS.
Even an for a beginner in forex but for pros will further addition to the trading system. WKBIBS Gives the earliest signals compared to the standard stochastic oscillator type and differs from all switches indicators does not issue false signals and not redrawn. Analog indicator type Trend_Signal_2008 not worth buying on a frozen schedule all beautiful, but in Realtime shading they delayed issuing a signal when it is in fact ceased to be relevant, and the deal will not is advisable. In such WKBIBS no, it really is not much harder than visually turnouts but gives earlier and right signals.
How to Use:
When the red line peresekat top of the blue from top to bottom then SELL, conversely, if the red crosses the lower blue from the bottom up, then BUY - all very simple, but important, as you can see the picture very clear signal has a price on the chart are relevant to the transaction in the right direction, differs from the switch indicators when it would be too late to open the transaction.
The rest, including the possible ispolzovenie filter trend and the preferred direction of transactions, you may find yourself.
Works with an indicator of IBS.
How to Use:
When the red line peresekat top of the blue from top to bottom then SELL, conversely, if the red crosses the lower blue from the bottom up, then BUY - all very simple, but important, as you can see the picture very clear signal has a price on the chart are relevant to the transaction in the right direction, differs from the switch indicators when it would be too late to open the transaction.
The rest, including the possible ispolzovenie filter trend and the preferred direction of transactions, you may find yourself.
Works with an indicator of IBS.
Download
VKW Bands - IBS.mq4
FerruFx Multi info__v1.1 MT4 Indicator
Multi-format display showing the direction of MA20, MA50, MA100, CCI, MACD, ADX, BULLS, BEARS 7 time frames. Also displays information about the recommended stop-loss, the recommended size of the lot, as your profit, or subsidence of the current position in pips and the percentage of the deposit.
Download
FerruFx Multi info__v1.1.mq4
Discipline MT4 Indicator
The indicator has been tested on:
* - Timeframes: M15, H 1, H 4, Daily;
* - Currency pairs: EUR / USD, GBP / USD, USD / CHF, USD / JPY;
Download
Discipline.mq4
U.S. GDP grew by 2.8% in third quarter
The growth of consumer spending, U.S. GDP grew in the third quarter of this year to 2.8% after falling 0.7% in the previous quarter.
Note that today was published an improved value of change in GDP, which was revised downward. Initial reports on the growth of the U.S. economy on 3,5%. Change the value of the indicator associated with the revision of data on consumer spending, business investment in commercial real estate, as well as the volume of exports and imports.
Compared with the same period last year, U.S. GDP fell by 2,5%.
Note that today was published an improved value of change in GDP, which was revised downward. Initial reports on the growth of the U.S. economy on 3,5%. Change the value of the indicator associated with the revision of data on consumer spending, business investment in commercial real estate, as well as the volume of exports and imports.
Compared with the same period last year, U.S. GDP fell by 2,5%.
The volume of euro-zone industrial orders increased significantly in September
Index of industrial orders in the area of the single European currency rose by 1.5% in September in monthly terms, said the EU statistical agency Eurostat. The value index surpassed expectations of analysts, forecast growth in orders for 0,7%. In August, the volume of industrial orders rose by 0,6%.
On an annual basis, industrial orders in the euro area declined by 16,5% in September, compared with -23.1% in the previous month. Analysts expected an annual index of orders at the level of -17.3%.
On an annual basis, industrial orders in the euro area declined by 16,5% in September, compared with -23.1% in the previous month. Analysts expected an annual index of orders at the level of -17.3%.
UniCredit advises buying euro / dollar just above 1.50
As the currency analysts UniCredit, yesterday, the euro / dollar made another unsuccessful attempt to overcome the 1.50 mark. Thus, the bank believes that a couple should buy only after this level will be struck. According to the Bank's strategy in the event of a breakthrough 1.50, euro / dollar may rise to the level of 1.52 and above. Currently, the euro / dollar traded at 1.4974.
Aggressive dollar / yen sellers back to the market
Drawing attention to the 4 hours chart, you will notice that a sufficiently long period of time auctions are held in the downward triangle. It is believed that the formation of a descending triangle shape, usually ends with a breakdown of its lower boundary.
USD / JPY
At the same graph, we see that in the FX market returned aggressive sellers of dollar / yen and is currently the exchange rate is testing the lower boundary of the triangle, which is a strong level of support 88.70/60.
Now look at the indicators:
Current price level is below the moving averages with periods of 34, 55, 89 and 144, which are directed downward and point to the continuing bearish sentiment.
The MACD histogram is located in the negative zone, began to decline in the near future may cross its signal line downwards, and thereby generate a signal to sell the dollar / yen.
Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone and has already formed such a signal, since the beginning of the% K line falls below the% D.
Therefore, as a confirmation that the forex market would be exacerbated bearish sentiment, we can only wait for the breakdown of the lower boundary of the triangle, and then will open the path to levels of 88.00 and 87.80/60.
Resistance Levels: 89.00, 89.30/40, 89.70, 90.00, 90.20, 90.40/50
Current price: 88.63
Support levels: 88.60, 88.40, 88.20, 88.00, 87.70, 87.50
The advancing deficient disaster
The President said that he understands the relevance of the budget crisis, however, keeps their policy directly to the iceberg.
President Barack Obama entered the office, promising to start with the principal and solve big problems. He showed great political will in trying to reform the national health system. But the biggest economic problem facing the nation - not health, and the budget deficit. Recently, the White House made it clear that he would seriously consider reducing the budget deficit next year after the massive health benefits. This is a recipe for disaster, because it provides a basis for increased spending and the emergence of another powerful interest group opposed to measures to reduce the deficit.
Our financial situation has deteriorated dramatically in just the last few years. The federal government has a budget deficit of $ 1.4 trillion. That is the highest figure since the Second World War, as the expenditure amounted to almost 25% of GDP, while revenue fell nearly 15% of GDP. Such indicators, we see the first time in 50 years.
Going forward, we understand that in the short term improvements will not be, because the costs far outstripped income and each year the federal budget planned so as to be scarce. Our national debt is $ 17.1 trillion. 10 years, or $ 50,000 for every American. By 2019, according to the analysis of the Congressional Budget Office, the budget deficit will be approximately $ 1trln. Even if the economy improves and incomes will be higher than historical norms.
The planned budget will have devastating consequences for economic growth and for its adequate assessment. These actions will make our children and grandchildren to pay for the current over-consumption. Federal deficit replace our internal investments in physical capital, human capital and technology that can increase the potential GDP and living standards. Funding shortfall could displace exports and hurt our international competitiveness, which is already happening, when we take big loans from countries such as China.
Many financial analysts ask questions as to when rating agencies lowered their rating of the U.S.? When lenders will provide an additional risk in the price of borrowing the federal government, which will lead to a surge in interest rates? And what the result will be the impact of higher interest rates, dollar depreciation and higher inflation in the manifestation of the economic crisis? Given the recent friendly, but fruitless, the president's visit to China, the answers to these questions will appear faster than any of us would like.
Obama and his advisers say that share similar concerns, but his administration's policies is equivalent to the rate of the iceberg. Perhaps the most striking example of incorrect sends global stock markets could be called health reform, which was adopted by the White House earlier this month, and another that is pending in the Senate. Whatever the intentions, the program has too many shortcomings to be justified.
First of all, the curve of health spending does not go down. U.S. Congressional Budget Office found that passed the House bill is not in a position to reduce the rate of growth of health spending. Checking the bill mainly actuary service centers free medical care and health services by Richard Foster (Richard Foster) showed that the rate of growth of national health expenditures will increase by 2.1% over 10 years, or the cash equivalent of up to $ 750 billion bill the majority leader, Harry Reid is growing as fast as the version the House of Representatives. Thus, the bill modifies the basic principles of health reform: providing quality service at lower cost.
Secondly, every bill defines a new program of social protection, which is growing at 8% annually, and invisible to the naked eye, it is growing faster than the economy, faster than tax revenues and as fast as we have already rolled the program of medical care and free medicaid. They form the next federal program of social protection for long-term insurance.
Finally, the financial bills are not clean, because they use budget tricks and stunts in their reporting: hide "inconvenient" expenses to mask the true extent of their conceal income from taxes, inflation can affect the taxation, promises to reduce costs for doctors and hospitals which are not attached to material nature of their work.
If you do have savings, which are intended for medical insurance, then these savings should be directed at eliminating the budget deficit and maintaining this program, but not to finance new insurance programs. Take control of such long-term programs are very difficult to date. Work will be basically impossible when several insurance programs.
In general, any innovation that pass through Congress, are economically dangerous and cause a sharp acceleration of the debt crisis. And worst of all, that the Federal Government is unable to cope with the financial situation.
What to do? The best choice for president would be financial suicide to stop the Congress and to refocus on slowing the dangerous growth of social security and health insurance. He must appeal to Congress to request a comprehensive reform of our revenue and taxation system, which will create sufficient income to meet their own needs and stimulate economic growth.
The narrowing of insurance payments and closing tax loopholes to create a fair tax system, with balanced benefit politically difficult to implement. But we will prevent the potentially devastating credit crisis, increase national savings, productivity and wages, increasing our international competitiveness.
Worry about the deficit should not next year, but now. We can not waste time.
President Barack Obama entered the office, promising to start with the principal and solve big problems. He showed great political will in trying to reform the national health system. But the biggest economic problem facing the nation - not health, and the budget deficit. Recently, the White House made it clear that he would seriously consider reducing the budget deficit next year after the massive health benefits. This is a recipe for disaster, because it provides a basis for increased spending and the emergence of another powerful interest group opposed to measures to reduce the deficit.
Our financial situation has deteriorated dramatically in just the last few years. The federal government has a budget deficit of $ 1.4 trillion. That is the highest figure since the Second World War, as the expenditure amounted to almost 25% of GDP, while revenue fell nearly 15% of GDP. Such indicators, we see the first time in 50 years.
Going forward, we understand that in the short term improvements will not be, because the costs far outstripped income and each year the federal budget planned so as to be scarce. Our national debt is $ 17.1 trillion. 10 years, or $ 50,000 for every American. By 2019, according to the analysis of the Congressional Budget Office, the budget deficit will be approximately $ 1trln. Even if the economy improves and incomes will be higher than historical norms.
The planned budget will have devastating consequences for economic growth and for its adequate assessment. These actions will make our children and grandchildren to pay for the current over-consumption. Federal deficit replace our internal investments in physical capital, human capital and technology that can increase the potential GDP and living standards. Funding shortfall could displace exports and hurt our international competitiveness, which is already happening, when we take big loans from countries such as China.
Many financial analysts ask questions as to when rating agencies lowered their rating of the U.S.? When lenders will provide an additional risk in the price of borrowing the federal government, which will lead to a surge in interest rates? And what the result will be the impact of higher interest rates, dollar depreciation and higher inflation in the manifestation of the economic crisis? Given the recent friendly, but fruitless, the president's visit to China, the answers to these questions will appear faster than any of us would like.
Obama and his advisers say that share similar concerns, but his administration's policies is equivalent to the rate of the iceberg. Perhaps the most striking example of incorrect sends global stock markets could be called health reform, which was adopted by the White House earlier this month, and another that is pending in the Senate. Whatever the intentions, the program has too many shortcomings to be justified.
First of all, the curve of health spending does not go down. U.S. Congressional Budget Office found that passed the House bill is not in a position to reduce the rate of growth of health spending. Checking the bill mainly actuary service centers free medical care and health services by Richard Foster (Richard Foster) showed that the rate of growth of national health expenditures will increase by 2.1% over 10 years, or the cash equivalent of up to $ 750 billion bill the majority leader, Harry Reid is growing as fast as the version the House of Representatives. Thus, the bill modifies the basic principles of health reform: providing quality service at lower cost.
Secondly, every bill defines a new program of social protection, which is growing at 8% annually, and invisible to the naked eye, it is growing faster than the economy, faster than tax revenues and as fast as we have already rolled the program of medical care and free medicaid. They form the next federal program of social protection for long-term insurance.
Finally, the financial bills are not clean, because they use budget tricks and stunts in their reporting: hide "inconvenient" expenses to mask the true extent of their conceal income from taxes, inflation can affect the taxation, promises to reduce costs for doctors and hospitals which are not attached to material nature of their work.
If you do have savings, which are intended for medical insurance, then these savings should be directed at eliminating the budget deficit and maintaining this program, but not to finance new insurance programs. Take control of such long-term programs are very difficult to date. Work will be basically impossible when several insurance programs.
In general, any innovation that pass through Congress, are economically dangerous and cause a sharp acceleration of the debt crisis. And worst of all, that the Federal Government is unable to cope with the financial situation.
What to do? The best choice for president would be financial suicide to stop the Congress and to refocus on slowing the dangerous growth of social security and health insurance. He must appeal to Congress to request a comprehensive reform of our revenue and taxation system, which will create sufficient income to meet their own needs and stimulate economic growth.
The narrowing of insurance payments and closing tax loopholes to create a fair tax system, with balanced benefit politically difficult to implement. But we will prevent the potentially devastating credit crisis, increase national savings, productivity and wages, increasing our international competitiveness.
Worry about the deficit should not next year, but now. We can not waste time.
The Wall Street Journal
November 20
November 20
Monday, November 23, 2009
The November index PMI for services eurozone has exceeded projections
Business activity in the services eurozone rose in November in relation to the previous month. According to preliminary data, the PMI services sector (Services PMI) rose to 53.2 points during the period when the forecast 52,7 points. Recall that in October the figure was 52.6 points.
Note that the PMI index accurately reflects the economic conditions in the services sector, the overall economic situation and development prospects. The value of the above 50 points indicates growth in business activity, below - to decline.
Note that the PMI index accurately reflects the economic conditions in the services sector, the overall economic situation and development prospects. The value of the above 50 points indicates growth in business activity, below - to decline.
Retail sales in Canada rose by 1% in September
The volume of retail sales in Canada rose in September by 1,0% to 34,9 billion in monetary terms. Retail sales rose for the seventh time in nine months.
The growth of retail sales in Canada started in the beginning of this year after a sharp fall in late 2008. Compared with the same period last year, a decline of 3,3%.
Retail sales excluding auto sales rose in September at 1.1%
The growth of retail sales in Canada started in the beginning of this year after a sharp fall in late 2008. Compared with the same period last year, a decline of 3,3%.
Retail sales excluding auto sales rose in September at 1.1%
Low rates in the U.S. remain a negative factor for the dollar
Analysts predict that the world's reserve currency will continue to fall, even when the Fed starts raising rates, which, according to politicians, remain low for a long time. Standard Chartered, HSBC and Scotia Capital considered. that the dollar will lose another 6.4% against the euro. Monetary incentives of $ 12 trillion. dollars, the lowest rates on loans and record volumes of purchases of government bonds for the period from 2009 to 2010 will exert pressure on the dollar. A similar effect can be expected from unemployment to 10.2%. "History teaches us that the dollar will steadily rise no earlier than 12 months after the Fed will raise rates", - noted in Standard Chartered. Analysts HSBC predict that by mid-year euro / dollar will reach $ 1.60. Scotia Capital makes a more modest forecast of - $ 1.50. "The dollar will take position as investors are concerned about his status as a reserve currency and large deficits in the U.S.".
Friday, November 20, 2009
Barclays Capital: break the trend line in the pair AUD / USD will lead to a deeper correction
As the currency analysts Barclays Capital, commodity currencies are traded today, under pressure, however, the Australian dollar took the brunt. Pair AUD / USD tested support trendline at 0.91, setting a two-week minimum at 0.9060, but then rebounded somewhat. The bank's strategy pay attention to the fact that the trend line from the March lows so far been a reliable support in the pair - a breakthrough that line will lead to greater downward correction AUD / USD. At the moment pair AUD / USD traded at 0.9115.
The fall of the New Zealand dollar and more than 200 points
The breakdown of 0.7310/00 level of support has increased the bear moods and currently the exchange rate reached 0.7240 before the intended target.
NZD / USD
Exchange Rates entrenched below the average with periods of 89, 144, 34 and 55, which are now a number of strong resistance levels 0.7330, 0.7380 and 0.7400/20.
The MACD histogram is located in the negative zone below its signal line, continues to decline, and thereby sends a signal to sell the New Zealand dollar.
Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold does not give clear signals.
Therefore, as a confirmation that the market would be exacerbated bearish sentiment, we can only wait for the breakdown support level 0.7240, which could open the way to a local minimum of 0.7100.
Resistance levels: 0.7250, 0.7270/80, 0.7300/10, 0.7340/50, 0.7370/80, 0.7400
Current Price: 0.7239
Support levels: 0.7220/00, 0.7160/50, 0.7110/00, 0.7080, 0.7050
The problems of the dollar - this is good news for the markets in Europe
Almost all predicted the dollar fall. He has even fewer friends than a passenger aircraft, which during the flight is suspected sick swine flu.
Investor and owner of billions of dollars in George Soros (George Soros) said that this situation creates a "dangerous instability. IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kan (Dominique Strauss-Kahn), indicates the appearance of a new global world's dominant currency in the decade.
The reasons are simple: the U.S. economy is in bad shape, the Fed prints money wildly, the budget deficit out of control.
It is hard to believe that in five years the dollar will have the same dominant role he had on global markets after World War II.
The depreciation of the dollar in Europe is often seen as a threat. In fact, all exactly the opposite: the end of the dollar's dominance will increase the importance of the European economy.
Evidence of problems of the dollar, we can see everywhere. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to mutter about the need to abandon the dollar in transactions with the oil and switch to one or more other currencies. This may not happen immediately, but it would be naive to believe that this will not happen in principle.
Central banks are beginning to revise their views on how much of their stocks to keep the dollar, particularly because the Fed does not stop the printing press. For example, India, has just bought gold at $ 6.7 billion from the IMF to diversify their reserves. Expect many such transitions, especially from new emerging economies in the coming years.
The end of
Objective debate about the end of the dollar's dominance has not yet happened. After WWII the U.S. became a strong economy. Now they - one of several powerful economic blocs. There is no reason for the U.S. to occupy a special position.
An interesting question is what the consequences. The gradual decline of the dollar - another source of instability in the world, in which it and so abound. The depreciation of the dollar in Europe and the rest of the world - is an opportunity to strengthen its own economy.
There are three reasons for this.
First, the primacy of the dollar allowed the U.S. to cope with a much larger trade deficit than any other country could afford, not leading to the collapse of its currency. It was a kind of tax that was levied with the rest of the world and allowed the U.S. to consume more and save less than they should, at a time when other countries were forced to save more and consume less.
"Tax" dollar
Because Europe is richer in other countries, this tax is mostly paid by Europeans. Any tax cut stimulates the economy, so the end of the tax dollar will do the same for Europe.
Secondly, the decline of the dollar will inevitably stimulate the global trading volatility, since only the special status of the dollar makes a huge U.S. trade deficit is acceptable. This should reduce the imbalance in trade between the U.S. and China. It will also reduce a massive trade surplus in Germany, as the strong euro complicates the sale of goods abroad. Even with the rapid growth of China, Germany remained the largest exporter of goods in the world in 2008. If China will assume this role in the near future, Germany could begin to consume and import more, which should benefit the whole of Europe.
Finally, we do not know what will replace the dollar. "Gold bugs" (supporters of preserving the functions of monetary gold) insist on their candidate, and maybe they will win. But most likely it will be the basket of currencies. One of them will be the Euro. The euro zone is currently the only strong economy, with the right amount of liquidity to meet the dollar.
Free Loans
For that to be a reserve currency to pay the price. Your Bank should worry about the consequences of its policies in the context of the whole world, not just the domestic economy. Of course, there are advantages. In fact: the rest of the world gives you an interest-free loan. And your currency is stronger than might.
With its aging population, Europe is the greater part of the next 30 years will live on their capital. With so many retirees, the region will be required to spend more than it saves. A stronger euro makes imports cheaper than those things that work force has ceased to produce.
Most of us do not like change, and people have a tendency to hold on to something with which they are familiar much longer than it was viable. But the dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency, is complete. And although Europe has to fear, there are also things which you can enjoy.
Investor and owner of billions of dollars in George Soros (George Soros) said that this situation creates a "dangerous instability. IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kan (Dominique Strauss-Kahn), indicates the appearance of a new global world's dominant currency in the decade.
The reasons are simple: the U.S. economy is in bad shape, the Fed prints money wildly, the budget deficit out of control.
It is hard to believe that in five years the dollar will have the same dominant role he had on global markets after World War II.
The depreciation of the dollar in Europe is often seen as a threat. In fact, all exactly the opposite: the end of the dollar's dominance will increase the importance of the European economy.
Evidence of problems of the dollar, we can see everywhere. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to mutter about the need to abandon the dollar in transactions with the oil and switch to one or more other currencies. This may not happen immediately, but it would be naive to believe that this will not happen in principle.
Central banks are beginning to revise their views on how much of their stocks to keep the dollar, particularly because the Fed does not stop the printing press. For example, India, has just bought gold at $ 6.7 billion from the IMF to diversify their reserves. Expect many such transitions, especially from new emerging economies in the coming years.
The end of
Objective debate about the end of the dollar's dominance has not yet happened. After WWII the U.S. became a strong economy. Now they - one of several powerful economic blocs. There is no reason for the U.S. to occupy a special position.
An interesting question is what the consequences. The gradual decline of the dollar - another source of instability in the world, in which it and so abound. The depreciation of the dollar in Europe and the rest of the world - is an opportunity to strengthen its own economy.
There are three reasons for this.
First, the primacy of the dollar allowed the U.S. to cope with a much larger trade deficit than any other country could afford, not leading to the collapse of its currency. It was a kind of tax that was levied with the rest of the world and allowed the U.S. to consume more and save less than they should, at a time when other countries were forced to save more and consume less.
"Tax" dollar
Because Europe is richer in other countries, this tax is mostly paid by Europeans. Any tax cut stimulates the economy, so the end of the tax dollar will do the same for Europe.
Secondly, the decline of the dollar will inevitably stimulate the global trading volatility, since only the special status of the dollar makes a huge U.S. trade deficit is acceptable. This should reduce the imbalance in trade between the U.S. and China. It will also reduce a massive trade surplus in Germany, as the strong euro complicates the sale of goods abroad. Even with the rapid growth of China, Germany remained the largest exporter of goods in the world in 2008. If China will assume this role in the near future, Germany could begin to consume and import more, which should benefit the whole of Europe.
Finally, we do not know what will replace the dollar. "Gold bugs" (supporters of preserving the functions of monetary gold) insist on their candidate, and maybe they will win. But most likely it will be the basket of currencies. One of them will be the Euro. The euro zone is currently the only strong economy, with the right amount of liquidity to meet the dollar.
Free Loans
For that to be a reserve currency to pay the price. Your Bank should worry about the consequences of its policies in the context of the whole world, not just the domestic economy. Of course, there are advantages. In fact: the rest of the world gives you an interest-free loan. And your currency is stronger than might.
With its aging population, Europe is the greater part of the next 30 years will live on their capital. With so many retirees, the region will be required to spend more than it saves. A stronger euro makes imports cheaper than those things that work force has ceased to produce.
Most of us do not like change, and people have a tendency to hold on to something with which they are familiar much longer than it was viable. But the dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency, is complete. And although Europe has to fear, there are also things which you can enjoy.
Lynn, Bloomberg
November 18
November 18
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States remained at 505 thousand
The number of primary applications for unemployment insurance in the United States remained unchanged compared with the previous week at 505 thousand at present rate is at its lowest level since January of this year, but still falls below 500 thousand, above which it kept for 53 consecutive weeks.
The average value of the index over the past four weeks fell by 6 thousand to 514 thousand number of Americans continuing to receive unemployment benefits decreased by one week to November 7 to 39 thousand to 5.61 million.
The average value of the index over the past four weeks fell by 6 thousand to 514 thousand number of Americans continuing to receive unemployment benefits decreased by one week to November 7 to 39 thousand to 5.61 million.
CBI will continue to cut rates
Financial Analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich: Next week, the 24 th of November, a meeting of the Board of Directors of CBI, which, very likely, for the ninth time it was decided to reduce the refinancing rate. Representatives of the Bank has also identified the reasons for such movement. Inflation lower than earlier projections, and perhaps, as predicted by Ignatiev, will be below 10 percent for the year.
In addition, in comments to an earlier meeting of the phrase sounded on the need to reduce the margin for short-term rates in the domestic and foreign markets. Currently the base rate for the U.S., Switzerland and Japan are near zero, while in the euro area - 1%. In Russia refinancing rate currently stands at 9.5%. Of course, the focus should be on the basis of the internal situation, but it allows for mitigation policies.
October results, the annual inflation rate amounted to 9,7%. It is believed that the Central Bank encourages lending, when the basic rate remains below the annual inflation rate. Anticipating a slowdown, and more (9-10% in 2010 and 5-7 in 2012), the central bank will continue to further reduce the rate. It is expected that the rate will be lowered by another 0.5 points to 9%.
Soft monetary policy contributes to a lower inflow of speculative capital into the financial markets, but also supports the real sector, while restraining the growth of the national currency, or contributing to its decline. Thursday Ulyukaev signified that the Bank adheres to the corridor in the 35 - 38 rubles for currency basket of dollars and euros. This morning, her course was near the lower boundary of the corridor. The authorities are prepared to prevent the further growth of our currency by using methods that are traditionally used, and other CB. At a time when other countries are thinking about tightening monetary policy or curtailing incentives, reducing the difference in interest rates in Russia and developed countries will reduce the amount of "hot" speculative capital in the economy.
On the currency basket influenced by two factors: demand for oil and fluctuations in the currency market. In the next month, oil demand will remain weak, that will not develop speculative pressures. Likely rate reduction refinancing on 24 November, and plans to reduce it further, would prevent such rapid growth, which was observed previously. But on the other hand, the euro does not want to grow. So at the end of the level of currency basket is likely to be 35,30-35,50, which is higher than the current marks. The dollar may cost about 29-29,50 pp. Accordingly, the euro may be less than 43 rubles, near 42,80.
In addition, in comments to an earlier meeting of the phrase sounded on the need to reduce the margin for short-term rates in the domestic and foreign markets. Currently the base rate for the U.S., Switzerland and Japan are near zero, while in the euro area - 1%. In Russia refinancing rate currently stands at 9.5%. Of course, the focus should be on the basis of the internal situation, but it allows for mitigation policies.
October results, the annual inflation rate amounted to 9,7%. It is believed that the Central Bank encourages lending, when the basic rate remains below the annual inflation rate. Anticipating a slowdown, and more (9-10% in 2010 and 5-7 in 2012), the central bank will continue to further reduce the rate. It is expected that the rate will be lowered by another 0.5 points to 9%.
Soft monetary policy contributes to a lower inflow of speculative capital into the financial markets, but also supports the real sector, while restraining the growth of the national currency, or contributing to its decline. Thursday Ulyukaev signified that the Bank adheres to the corridor in the 35 - 38 rubles for currency basket of dollars and euros. This morning, her course was near the lower boundary of the corridor. The authorities are prepared to prevent the further growth of our currency by using methods that are traditionally used, and other CB. At a time when other countries are thinking about tightening monetary policy or curtailing incentives, reducing the difference in interest rates in Russia and developed countries will reduce the amount of "hot" speculative capital in the economy.
On the currency basket influenced by two factors: demand for oil and fluctuations in the currency market. In the next month, oil demand will remain weak, that will not develop speculative pressures. Likely rate reduction refinancing on 24 November, and plans to reduce it further, would prevent such rapid growth, which was observed previously. But on the other hand, the euro does not want to grow. So at the end of the level of currency basket is likely to be 35,30-35,50, which is higher than the current marks. The dollar may cost about 29-29,50 pp. Accordingly, the euro may be less than 43 rubles, near 42,80.
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UniCredit: positive statistics from the United States can support the euro / dollar
According to currency analysts UniCredit, taking into account another unsuccessful attempt to euro / dollar to rise above the level of 1.50, the basis for the development of upward motion can only be a positive economic statistics from the U.S. and rising stock markets. However, note in the bank, the bulls on the euro is concerned by the statements of representatives of the ECB on the excessive strengthening of European currencies. Euro / dollar at the moment is trading at around 1.4864.
UK retail sales grow moderately
The volume of retail sales in Britain rose by 0,4% in October, reports the National Statistics Office. Thus analysts predicted an increase in rate of 0,6%. Recall that in September the index of retail sales was 0.0%.
In annual terms, the index of retail sales reached 3.4% in October compared with 2.4% a month earlier. The annual rate was forecast at 2.9%.
In annual terms, the index of retail sales reached 3.4% in October compared with 2.4% a month earlier. The annual rate was forecast at 2.9%.
The volume of borrowed funds the UK public sector declined marginally in October
Net borrowings of State (Public Sector Net Borrowing) in the UK amounted to 11.4 billion pounds in October at the previous value of 14.9 billion pounds in the month before and the forecast at 6.7 billion
budget deficit the UK (Public Sector Current Budget Deficit) for October amounted to 7.7 billion pounds compared with a surplus of 2.2 billion pounds in October last year.
Net debt of the public sector (Public Sector Net Debt) amounted to 59,2% of GDP at the end of October this year compared with 48.6% at the end of October last year.
budget deficit the UK (Public Sector Current Budget Deficit) for October amounted to 7.7 billion pounds compared with a surplus of 2.2 billion pounds in October last year.
Net debt of the public sector (Public Sector Net Debt) amounted to 59,2% of GDP at the end of October this year compared with 48.6% at the end of October last year.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Barclays Capital: dollar / yen will continue to decline
Analysts said Barclays Capital, reducing yields on U.S. government bonds can not yet speak about the end of the downtrend dollar / yen from the October highs. The bank noted that the medium-and long-term charts indicate a further reduction couples. Bank strategists believe that the consolidation below 89.80 will be bearish signal and the basis for the development of a downward movement to a minimum on the October 88.00 and a minimum in 2009 to 87.15. At the moment the dollar / yen is trading at 89.37. A pair of rose to the level of Y89.43 against growth of euro / yen in the region Y133.90. Offer noted on the approach to Y89.60, located above the foot.
The current account deficit of balance of payments euro area has exceeded forecasts for September
In September this year the balance of payments deficit with the euro-zone seasonally adjusted amounted to 5.4 billion euros (equivalent to a deficit of 5.0 billion euros excluding seasonal and calendar factors), said the European Central Bank. However analysts predicted a positive balance of payments at the level of 0,6 billion euros.
On an annual basis, taking into account factors consecutive current account deficit of balance of payments for September totaled 91.6 billion euros (about 1,0% of GDP), compared with a deficit of 105.9 billion euros a year earlier.
The total inflow of direct and portfolio investment in the euro area without taking into account seasonal variations for September amounted to 28 billion euros, compared with 46 billion euros in August.
On an annual basis, taking into account factors consecutive current account deficit of balance of payments for September totaled 91.6 billion euros (about 1,0% of GDP), compared with a deficit of 105.9 billion euros a year earlier.
The total inflow of direct and portfolio investment in the euro area without taking into account seasonal variations for September amounted to 28 billion euros, compared with 46 billion euros in August.
Bank of England voted unanimously to maintain the key rate
On Wednesday, 18 November, the Bank of England published the minutes of the meeting held on November 4-5, at which the Committee on monetary policy has kept the rate of compulsory reserves of commercial banks at 0.50%. The decision was taken unanimously. At the same meeting it was decided (seven votes out of nine) to increase purchases of assets of the private sector by the central bank reserves to 25 billion pounds to 200 billion pounds. One member proposed to increase purchases by 40 billion pounds.
In the third quarter UK GDP unexpectedly fell. Despite the fact that the data may be revised for the better, economic activity remains at a lower level than projected earlier. Moreover, available data indicate that the GDP will be weak in the fourth quarter. Committee of the Bank of England also expects that inflation will be significantly below the target level of 2% most of the projection period. It is expected that the recovery in economic activity will be slow, and a large stock of spare capacity maintained in the medium term.
Most members believed that increase in purchases should accelerate the reduction of the stock of spare capacity and to facilitate the return of inflation to the target level.
In the third quarter UK GDP unexpectedly fell. Despite the fact that the data may be revised for the better, economic activity remains at a lower level than projected earlier. Moreover, available data indicate that the GDP will be weak in the fourth quarter. Committee of the Bank of England also expects that inflation will be significantly below the target level of 2% most of the projection period. It is expected that the recovery in economic activity will be slow, and a large stock of spare capacity maintained in the medium term.
Most members believed that increase in purchases should accelerate the reduction of the stock of spare capacity and to facilitate the return of inflation to the target level.
Consumer prices in the U.S. increased by 0,3% in October
Consumer prices in the U.S. grew in October at 0.3% due to rising energy prices, which rose for the fifth time in the past six months.
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, in annual terms, consumer price index decreased by 0,2%.
The consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy prices in the reporting period increased by 0,2%. The increased was due to higher prices for vehicles. Compared with the same period last year the index increased by 1,7%.
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, in annual terms, consumer price index decreased by 0,2%.
The consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy prices in the reporting period increased by 0,2%. The increased was due to higher prices for vehicles. Compared with the same period last year the index increased by 1,7%.
Balance CBI industrial orders improved slightly for November
British Confederation of Industrialists has published an economic survey (CBI Industrial Trends Survey), according to which the balance of industrial orders in the UK amounted to -45% for November compared with -51% a month earlier. Thus analysts predicted an increase in the index to -47% during the reporting period.
Demand for manufactured goods Britain began to improve, but still remains low. According to a survey CBI, the release of goods will increase gradually over the next three months.
British Confederation of Industrialists - Leading UK business organizations, representing some 240 000 enterprises. 470 manufacturers participated in the November study.
Demand for manufactured goods Britain began to improve, but still remains low. According to a survey CBI, the release of goods will increase gradually over the next three months.
British Confederation of Industrialists - Leading UK business organizations, representing some 240 000 enterprises. 470 manufacturers participated in the November study.
Housing construction in the United States fell sharply in October
Volumes of new housing in the U.S. fell in October to 10,6% to 529 thousand, being at a record low level since April of this year. This is the largest monthly fall in January of this year.
Until October housing remained approximately the same level for four consecutive months. Economists were expecting a more high-value target - 590 thousand compared to the same period last year, construction of new homes fell by 30.7%.
The number of building permits issued declined in October compared with the previous month by 4% to 552 thousand
Until October housing remained approximately the same level for four consecutive months. Economists were expecting a more high-value target - 590 thousand compared to the same period last year, construction of new homes fell by 30.7%.
The number of building permits issued declined in October compared with the previous month by 4% to 552 thousand
"The greatest bargain": How to make $ 20 billion
Even when the financial system collapsed in the past year, and millions of investors lost billions of dollars, a "neinvestor" received a historical earnings, his name is John Paulson (John Paulson), it is hedge fund manager in New York.
His firm earned $ 20 billion between 2007 and early 2009, playing against the real estate market and big financial companies. Personal income Paulson make almost $ 4 billion, or more than $ 10 million a day. This is more than the income JK Rowling, Oprah Uinnfri and Tiger Woods combined for the year 2007.
How did he do it? Believing that the approaching collapse of the real estate market, Paulson has spent about $ 1 billion in 2006 to purchase insurance from the fact that he had already identified as high-risk mortgage investments. When the real estate market and mortgages collapsed, the cost of insurance Paulson rocketed. In that year one of his funds grew by 500%. Then, in 2008, he opened a short position on the financial assets of companies or put on the fact that they will fall in price, earning again, when the prices of these companies collapsed.
Is there in this case, some investment skills that can learn to investors, based on the stories of his success? Yes. Of course, no guarantees, but the success of Paulson and several other former unsuccessful investors gives support to people who are trying to compete with the pros on Wall Street.
Below are 8 tips on investment of $ 20 billion Paulson's game, which is the greatest example in financial history:
1. Do not rely on the experts
Many investors lost heavily in 2007 and 2008 on housing construction and collapse of the stock market. But no one lost more than commercial and investment banks, caught in the trap of toxic mortgage securities. These bankers were the ones who have created such investments, and the best analysts on Wall Street vouch for their reliability, just when Paulson and others set against the investment.
Lesson: When Wall Street puts its' latest product is a win-win "- be skeptical.
2. Problems bubbles
Some academics argue that financial markets become more efficient. But the rapid growth of financial bubbles in recent years, including real estate, technology and Asian currencies, confirm that is just hard to navigate, and markets are increasingly inclined to exaggeration. Today, investors of any gauges read the same article, watch the same TV business programs and see this same tips. They invariably take a course on the output simultaneously.
Lesson: Have an exit strategy and cash to cushion any fall.
3. Focus on the debt market
Most investors track the ups and downs of the stock market, but have a vague idea of the movement in the debt market. Is a mistake. Early signs of trouble were seen in markets with high levels of competition that are not in the center of attention, such as the subprime mortgage market bonds. These problems eventually led to collapse the housing market, stock markets and the economy as a whole, that Paulson and his team christened as the "domino principle".
Lesson: Debt markets can play a generally larger role in predicting problems than the stock markets.
4. Development of new investment
Paulson has earned a huge profit on the purchase of credit default swaps (CDS), derivative investments that are insured debt. When the risky mortgage bonds fell in price, insurance Paulson rocketed. However, many experts were confused by the CDS contracts or shied away from the relatively new investments for themselves. Paulson and his team had no experience with CDS contracts, but they spent some time studying them.
Lesson: Learn a variety of trading instruments, some of them can play a valuable role in the portfolio.
5. Insurance premiums
Number of investors worried about an explosion in the housing market, but few do something, even though such CDS contracts at that time sold at extremely low prices. Investing in stock options "not in the money" pays off only when the market falls, at the time they also traded at reasonable levels. Since this insurance was very cheap - many professionals ignore it.
Lesson: Do not underestimate the importance of insurance, such as a put option.
6. The value of experience
Some of the biggest winners during the crisis were middle-aged investors, who was fired for past services. But they have encountered with past market downturns, and some bankers and analysts were caught off guard, because they knew only the good times.
Lesson: A historical perspective can be a valuable tool.
7. Do not forget
In early 2009 Mr. Paulson has become more inclined to bullish trend on the banks and financial companies, against which he set in 2008, as the latter improved their balance sheets. These steps led to profits this year.
Lesson: Even the most successful trade can not last forever.
8. Luck helps
In early 2006, Mr. Paulson decided that the real estate market problems and intended to profit from the coming fall. But some real estate experts have already decided that it was overvalued, while others set against the real estate market, but have not been able to fix their losses. Just months after the historic trade Paulson, real estate prices in the United States again began to fall.
Lesson: Do not get too many chances in one transaction, even if it seems right thing.
His firm earned $ 20 billion between 2007 and early 2009, playing against the real estate market and big financial companies. Personal income Paulson make almost $ 4 billion, or more than $ 10 million a day. This is more than the income JK Rowling, Oprah Uinnfri and Tiger Woods combined for the year 2007.
How did he do it? Believing that the approaching collapse of the real estate market, Paulson has spent about $ 1 billion in 2006 to purchase insurance from the fact that he had already identified as high-risk mortgage investments. When the real estate market and mortgages collapsed, the cost of insurance Paulson rocketed. In that year one of his funds grew by 500%. Then, in 2008, he opened a short position on the financial assets of companies or put on the fact that they will fall in price, earning again, when the prices of these companies collapsed.
Is there in this case, some investment skills that can learn to investors, based on the stories of his success? Yes. Of course, no guarantees, but the success of Paulson and several other former unsuccessful investors gives support to people who are trying to compete with the pros on Wall Street.
Below are 8 tips on investment of $ 20 billion Paulson's game, which is the greatest example in financial history:
1. Do not rely on the experts
Many investors lost heavily in 2007 and 2008 on housing construction and collapse of the stock market. But no one lost more than commercial and investment banks, caught in the trap of toxic mortgage securities. These bankers were the ones who have created such investments, and the best analysts on Wall Street vouch for their reliability, just when Paulson and others set against the investment.
Lesson: When Wall Street puts its' latest product is a win-win "- be skeptical.
2. Problems bubbles
Some academics argue that financial markets become more efficient. But the rapid growth of financial bubbles in recent years, including real estate, technology and Asian currencies, confirm that is just hard to navigate, and markets are increasingly inclined to exaggeration. Today, investors of any gauges read the same article, watch the same TV business programs and see this same tips. They invariably take a course on the output simultaneously.
Lesson: Have an exit strategy and cash to cushion any fall.
3. Focus on the debt market
Most investors track the ups and downs of the stock market, but have a vague idea of the movement in the debt market. Is a mistake. Early signs of trouble were seen in markets with high levels of competition that are not in the center of attention, such as the subprime mortgage market bonds. These problems eventually led to collapse the housing market, stock markets and the economy as a whole, that Paulson and his team christened as the "domino principle".
Lesson: Debt markets can play a generally larger role in predicting problems than the stock markets.
4. Development of new investment
Paulson has earned a huge profit on the purchase of credit default swaps (CDS), derivative investments that are insured debt. When the risky mortgage bonds fell in price, insurance Paulson rocketed. However, many experts were confused by the CDS contracts or shied away from the relatively new investments for themselves. Paulson and his team had no experience with CDS contracts, but they spent some time studying them.
Lesson: Learn a variety of trading instruments, some of them can play a valuable role in the portfolio.
5. Insurance premiums
Number of investors worried about an explosion in the housing market, but few do something, even though such CDS contracts at that time sold at extremely low prices. Investing in stock options "not in the money" pays off only when the market falls, at the time they also traded at reasonable levels. Since this insurance was very cheap - many professionals ignore it.
Lesson: Do not underestimate the importance of insurance, such as a put option.
6. The value of experience
Some of the biggest winners during the crisis were middle-aged investors, who was fired for past services. But they have encountered with past market downturns, and some bankers and analysts were caught off guard, because they knew only the good times.
Lesson: A historical perspective can be a valuable tool.
7. Do not forget
In early 2009 Mr. Paulson has become more inclined to bullish trend on the banks and financial companies, against which he set in 2008, as the latter improved their balance sheets. These steps led to profits this year.
Lesson: Even the most successful trade can not last forever.
8. Luck helps
In early 2006, Mr. Paulson decided that the real estate market problems and intended to profit from the coming fall. But some real estate experts have already decided that it was overvalued, while others set against the real estate market, but have not been able to fix their losses. Just months after the historic trade Paulson, real estate prices in the United States again began to fall.
Lesson: Do not get too many chances in one transaction, even if it seems right thing.
The Wall Street Journal
November 15
November 15
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Producer prices in the U.S. rose by 0.3% in October
The index of industrial prices excluding volatile food prices and energy prices fell in October at 0.6%. This is the most significant fall in the past three years.
Compared with the same period last year, producer prices in the U.S. fell by 1,9%. In turn, the index excluding prices for food and energy rose at annual rate of 0,7%.
Compared with the same period last year, producer prices in the U.S. fell by 1,9%. In turn, the index excluding prices for food and energy rose at annual rate of 0,7%.
Long-term capital inflows in the U.S. totaled $ 40.7 billion in September
U.S. Treasury issued a report Tuesday on international capital flows for September 2009.
During the period, foreign investors purchased U.S. long-term securities totaling $ 55.7 billion including the share of private investors had $ 44.8 billion, while the share of official government agencies - $ 10.9 billion in the same time, U.S. residents purchased foreign long-term securities totaling $ 15.0 billion
During the period, foreign investors purchased U.S. long-term securities totaling $ 55.7 billion including the share of private investors had $ 44.8 billion, while the share of official government agencies - $ 10.9 billion in the same time, U.S. residents purchased foreign long-term securities totaling $ 15.0 billion
UniCredit: the probability of decline of the euro / dollar may rise
According to currency analysts UniCredit, downside risks to pair the euro / dollar is increasingly growing. As noted in the bank, the failure of euro / dollar's upward movement to develop a higher level of $ 1.50 a pair of difficult short-term prospects. The bank believes that interest in risky assets now will allow the euro / dollar to stay above $ 1.4850, however, in the event of further decline in equity markets likely fall couples, of course, increase. Euro / dollar at the moment stands at $ 1.4866. Source: Forexpf.Ru - Forex News
Martingail Breakdowning_v1 MT4 Expert Advisor
Expert applying capital management method of Martingale.
Just a few comments:
* Parameter LogariphmicMM (when the MM) includes manimenedzhment when increasing the lot size of the deposit increases, but at a slower rate than the deposit, ie, the load on the deposit decreases. We must decide only Riskfactor;
* Parameter ProfitPercent defines the required size of our profit as a percentage of the depot. Since the series does not close at all levels and they can be separated by 200 points. However, if enabled OptimalTakeProfit, the size of the required profit increases by the square root of the maximum open lot. OptimalTakeProfit recommended.
* For those who want to try adviser on a real account, be sure to include Close_on_TP, then the series closes on TakeProfit and stop-loss. There, like all properly considered and bidam, and ASCAME ... If this option is off, the warrant simply closed to achieve the necessary profit;
* The selection of parameters: the euro is better to move about 20, ProfitPercent about 0,3-0,5. The taste and color. Per pound of step 30.
* Profitnost increases with decreasing step and the risk too;
* The initial orders are opened in both sides of the lot size is 0.1. They need only to reference the initial level.
Topic is discussed in detail in http://forum.alpari-idc.ru/thread24642.html.
Particularly experts - increases the loss-making arm, considering that the price will continue its movement, and not vice versa bounce off the level, ie the breakdown option. Much more stable and more stable than all other options.
Just a few comments:
* Parameter LogariphmicMM (when the MM) includes manimenedzhment when increasing the lot size of the deposit increases, but at a slower rate than the deposit, ie, the load on the deposit decreases. We must decide only Riskfactor;
* Parameter ProfitPercent defines the required size of our profit as a percentage of the depot. Since the series does not close at all levels and they can be separated by 200 points. However, if enabled OptimalTakeProfit, the size of the required profit increases by the square root of the maximum open lot. OptimalTakeProfit recommended.
* For those who want to try adviser on a real account, be sure to include Close_on_TP, then the series closes on TakeProfit and stop-loss. There, like all properly considered and bidam, and ASCAME ... If this option is off, the warrant simply closed to achieve the necessary profit;
* The selection of parameters: the euro is better to move about 20, ProfitPercent about 0,3-0,5. The taste and color. Per pound of step 30.
* Profitnost increases with decreasing step and the risk too;
* The initial orders are opened in both sides of the lot size is 0.1. They need only to reference the initial level.
Topic is discussed in detail in http://forum.alpari-idc.ru/thread24642.html.
New version. Added mode lights out (in contrast to the breakdown, when the ratio of equity / balance is less than 0.7), trailing stop is a profitable position. Podrdobno code is commented. Options well suited for a pound - Step 20, TrailingStop 30, ProfitPercent 0.5.
Download
Martingail Breakdowning_v1.mq4
Download
Martingail Breakdowning_v1.mq4
Frank ud MT4 Expert Advisor
ONE OF THE MOST PROFITABLE, STABLE AND EASY automated trading systems for FOREX TO DATE!
Has a stable profit, the unique algorithm of the first transaction and the system output Losev transactions bezubytok by Martingale. The system is uniquely flexible and profitable - a stable profit from 500% in less than 1 year - checked. A little fear can only recoil at the price jumps of 2000 or more points "in the wrong direction, what happens during the economic collapse of any country, war, major terrorist attacks, etc. This happens once in 2 years. This can be seen on TV and in advance to suspend work on the adviser to a week or less.
Specifications:
* Algorithm MM: Martingale in the breakdown.
* Terminal: Metatrader 4
* Sovetuemye tools: any.
* Settings: SET files prilagayutsya for example.
* Period: from M5 up to D1
* Minimum depot: for every 10 000 is required lot 0,01 (secure option)
for every 1000 requires lot 0,01 (risky setting)
* Performance: From 500% per year. depends on the shoulder, the level and frequency of lots reinvestment.
* DC: Anyone with a micro 0.01 Lot, Mini 0.1 unit, or common account 1 lot.
* Opening hours: around the clock on weekdays.
* Internet: need a stable without a glitch.
* Reinvestment: Yes.
Principle:
Open positions up and down.
Waiting movement.
- Top up against the movement of Martingale (eg 0,01, 0,02, 0,03, etc..) Closes: Rollback. Take Profit.
- The movement: Minimum lot. (Eg 0,01) Closes: take profit.
Be sure to spend optimization. Counselor is very sensitive to the settings.
Attention is a martingale, it contradicts one of the rules of trade, not work against the trend! Budtte with caution!
Download
Frank ud.mq4
Has a stable profit, the unique algorithm of the first transaction and the system output Losev transactions bezubytok by Martingale. The system is uniquely flexible and profitable - a stable profit from 500% in less than 1 year - checked. A little fear can only recoil at the price jumps of 2000 or more points "in the wrong direction, what happens during the economic collapse of any country, war, major terrorist attacks, etc. This happens once in 2 years. This can be seen on TV and in advance to suspend work on the adviser to a week or less.
Specifications:
* Algorithm MM: Martingale in the breakdown.
* Terminal: Metatrader 4
* Sovetuemye tools: any.
* Settings: SET files prilagayutsya for example.
* Period: from M5 up to D1
* Minimum depot: for every 10 000 is required lot 0,01 (secure option)
for every 1000 requires lot 0,01 (risky setting)
* Performance: From 500% per year. depends on the shoulder, the level and frequency of lots reinvestment.
* DC: Anyone with a micro 0.01 Lot, Mini 0.1 unit, or common account 1 lot.
* Opening hours: around the clock on weekdays.
* Internet: need a stable without a glitch.
* Reinvestment: Yes.
Principle:
Open positions up and down.
Waiting movement.
- Top up against the movement of Martingale (eg 0,01, 0,02, 0,03, etc..) Closes: Rollback. Take Profit.
- The movement: Minimum lot. (Eg 0,01) Closes: take profit.
Be sure to spend optimization. Counselor is very sensitive to the settings.
Attention is a martingale, it contradicts one of the rules of trade, not work against the trend! Budtte with caution!
Download
Frank ud.mq4
Retail sales in the U.S. increased by 1.4% in October
The volume of retail sales in the U.S. grew in October at 1.4% due to higher car sales.
Sales of cars increased in the reporting period to 7.4%. Retail sales excluding auto sales rose in October at 0.2%. Economists had expected growth of this indicator on 0,3%. Sales of durable goods excluding automobiles were quite weak. In turn, sales of consumer goods in general have shown growth.
Growth of retail sales exceeded 1%, which was expected by experts. However, the October increase was smoothed negative value for the previous month, which was revised in the direction of a significant reduction.
Sales of cars increased in the reporting period to 7.4%. Retail sales excluding auto sales rose in October at 0.2%. Economists had expected growth of this indicator on 0,3%. Sales of durable goods excluding automobiles were quite weak. In turn, sales of consumer goods in general have shown growth.
Growth of retail sales exceeded 1%, which was expected by experts. However, the October increase was smoothed negative value for the previous month, which was revised in the direction of a significant reduction.
Producer prices have fallen, but consumer prices are unlikely to decrease
Today went Rosstat data, according to which producer prices of industrial production in Russia in January-October 2009 increased by 13,9% and inflation at the consumer market was 8.1%. Left commented on the financial data analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich.
Producer prices are a leading indicator of prices in the consumer market. This variability is reflected in consumer inflation with a delay. Retail players are often passed on to consumers the increased cost burden on the purchase of goods. But at the same time, as seen from the figures this year, it happens to a much lesser extent, because not only raw materials included in the price of goods and services.
In the conditions of Russia is somewhat different: if the prices of industrial goods and services vary greatly with the cycles of economic activity, the consumer prices, at best, do not grow or equal to zero. Month to month it strongly influences the dynamics, distorting it. So, by October last year, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, producers cut prices by 1,8% (in spite of the accumulated YTD growth of 13.9%), while consumer prices rose by 9,7%.
Very telling in this regard in January this year, when producer prices fell more than 3%, while the consumer rose by 2,0%. Since Russia's economy went in the direction of growth, and the government is planning greater spending for November and December, it most likely will increase consumer prices by 0,8-1,0% per month (the more so that producer prices rose consistently from February to September). This is historically the standard inflation rate for these months.
This year we are likely to get consumer prices by 10% per year. Inflation next year is likely to remain at 10-12% rather than 7 - 8% projected by the government.
Producer prices are a leading indicator of prices in the consumer market. This variability is reflected in consumer inflation with a delay. Retail players are often passed on to consumers the increased cost burden on the purchase of goods. But at the same time, as seen from the figures this year, it happens to a much lesser extent, because not only raw materials included in the price of goods and services.
In the conditions of Russia is somewhat different: if the prices of industrial goods and services vary greatly with the cycles of economic activity, the consumer prices, at best, do not grow or equal to zero. Month to month it strongly influences the dynamics, distorting it. So, by October last year, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, producers cut prices by 1,8% (in spite of the accumulated YTD growth of 13.9%), while consumer prices rose by 9,7%.
Very telling in this regard in January this year, when producer prices fell more than 3%, while the consumer rose by 2,0%. Since Russia's economy went in the direction of growth, and the government is planning greater spending for November and December, it most likely will increase consumer prices by 0,8-1,0% per month (the more so that producer prices rose consistently from February to September). This is historically the standard inflation rate for these months.
This year we are likely to get consumer prices by 10% per year. Inflation next year is likely to remain at 10-12% rather than 7 - 8% projected by the government.
Annual inflation in the euro area in October at the level of forecasts
According to final data of the EU statistical agency Eurostat, the annual consumer price index for the euro area amounted to -0,1% in October compared with -0.3% in the previous month. A year earlier the rate of inflation in the eurozone reached 3.2%. In monthly terms, the consumer price index for October increased by 0,2%.
Annual consumer price index excluding prices for food, tobacco, alcohol and fuel (main index) was 1.2% for the reporting period. The value of the meet analysts' forecasts.
Annual consumer price index excluding prices for food, tobacco, alcohol and fuel (main index) was 1.2% for the reporting period. The value of the meet analysts' forecasts.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Mizuho holds bearish forecast for the dollar / yen
As the currency analysts Mizuho, all indicators on daily charts the dollar / yen indicate bearish sentiment couples. The bank believes that trade within the formation of a "triangle", which is now the pair will soon end, and the dollar / yen falls dramatically to the key support level of 87.00, and then to a level of 85.00 in the week. As a strategy for bank analysts prefer to sell on the best exchange rate, reinforcing the position at 90.00, with a stop above 90.75 and short-term goals of 89.29/18 and 88.25/88.00. At the moment pair dollar / yen is at around 89.47.
BNP Paribas recommends buying euro / franc
According to currency analysts BNP Paribas, the interest of the Swiss National Bank to currency intervention is likely to weaken, as the restoration of the Swiss economy is gaining momentum. However, consider a bank, in the case of a verbal intervention by the Central Bank of Switzerland, the reaction of pair euro / franc, which is now closer to the bottom of the range, can be quite significant. Thus, reducing the euro / franc at 1.5080 area in the bank is seen as a good opportunity to buy a pair. Currently, the euro / franc is trading at around 1.5090.
UBS recommended buying the dollar / yen
As the currency analysts UBS, the Minister of Finance of Japan Fuji said that he was satisfied that the yield on Japanese government bonds again began to decline. As you know, since, as Fuji joined as finance minister, his views on the dollar / yen has changed - at the bank believe that Fuji and his adviser Goten would not tolerate further strengthening the national currency. Bank analysts also note concerns regarding the sustainability of the state budget in Japan, and believe that in such circumstances, the dollar / yen should buy, not sell. At the moment pair dollar / yen is trading at 89.54.
Financial sector reform is part of enhanced phase
In a statement the head of the Bank of Spain, Miguel Fernandez Ordonezom (Miguel Fernández Ordóñez) refers to the desire to reduce by one-third the number of Spanish savings and credit institutions in less than a year that marks the beginning of a strengthened phase of financial sector reforms.
From the moment that the Spanish authorities attempted to help the suffering with Caja Castilla La Mancha (CCM) during the emergency operation at the weekend in late March, the negotiation of mergers and acquisitions in order to save the country from other unreliable creditors proceeded with frustrating slowness, according to bankers and government officials.
Contributed to the list of commercial banks such as Santander and BBVA, still seemed more viable than most of their international colleagues.
However, many of the 45 banks that were not included in the list of approved stock exchange turnover, and often under political influence of the regional savings bank, succumbed to the increasingly negative influence because of bad loans to builders and homebuyers in the boom years.
Santiago Lopez Diaz (Santiago López DÃaz), a bank analyst at Credit Suisse in its critical report on the banks said that Dumb of them increased their branch network in recent years, which angered participated in the bankers. They have quadrupled their total assets in a decade, developers have increased the loan by a factor of 20, recording the extraordinary growth of 43% on these loans during the period between 2002 and 2007.
At the moment, this has led to an increase in bad loans, which require more investment, this effect of pressure on the merger and the growing concerns of foreign creditors, who own a greater part of the € 450 billion of mortgage securities issued by Spanish authorities.
Fernandez Ordonez told the Financial Times that the 15 banks should be merged with others in the spring of next year, also, he intends to use the new Spanish law "Frob", which established the Foundation for the orderly restructuring of banks, for such purpose, almost $ 99 billion.
For the first time in postwar history of Spain's banks are in the spotlight. "All previous crises were due to banks", - said Ordonez. "The current crisis has paralyzed the banking system, a new phenomenon and we need to adopt a new law."
Two of the expected merger - is rescued from the CCM Cajastur, and Unicaja with Cajasur, probably, will be held with the participation of € 4 billion, which had accumulated a bank deposit insurance fund, however, that money would soon be exhausted.
With the present moment, the Bank of Spain wants stronger bank structures financed acquisitions from its own resources, which is expected to occur between different banking institutions in Navarra, Rioja, Aragon and the Canary Islands, or the same for this purpose is proposed to hold a Frob .
Grants for the taxpayers' money Frob will be available only as a last resort; Ordonez also said that the authorities expect instead to see the restructuring and closure of branches to reduce costs.
Partially can say thank you to the Bank of Spain for its strict limits and closely monitored, due to which taxpayers do not spend anything to help the banks, "said Ordonez. "In our case, is very profitable, when 80% of large and medium-sized financial institutions in relatively prosperous" - he said.
Until now, property prices in Spain fall, we're ahead of many mergers and acquisitions in the financial sector. Thus Ordonez described the difficult task of supporting the reform of the banking sector, which does not affect the Spanish taxpayers.
From the moment that the Spanish authorities attempted to help the suffering with Caja Castilla La Mancha (CCM) during the emergency operation at the weekend in late March, the negotiation of mergers and acquisitions in order to save the country from other unreliable creditors proceeded with frustrating slowness, according to bankers and government officials.
Contributed to the list of commercial banks such as Santander and BBVA, still seemed more viable than most of their international colleagues.
However, many of the 45 banks that were not included in the list of approved stock exchange turnover, and often under political influence of the regional savings bank, succumbed to the increasingly negative influence because of bad loans to builders and homebuyers in the boom years.
Santiago Lopez Diaz (Santiago López DÃaz), a bank analyst at Credit Suisse in its critical report on the banks said that Dumb of them increased their branch network in recent years, which angered participated in the bankers. They have quadrupled their total assets in a decade, developers have increased the loan by a factor of 20, recording the extraordinary growth of 43% on these loans during the period between 2002 and 2007.
At the moment, this has led to an increase in bad loans, which require more investment, this effect of pressure on the merger and the growing concerns of foreign creditors, who own a greater part of the € 450 billion of mortgage securities issued by Spanish authorities.
Fernandez Ordonez told the Financial Times that the 15 banks should be merged with others in the spring of next year, also, he intends to use the new Spanish law "Frob", which established the Foundation for the orderly restructuring of banks, for such purpose, almost $ 99 billion.
For the first time in postwar history of Spain's banks are in the spotlight. "All previous crises were due to banks", - said Ordonez. "The current crisis has paralyzed the banking system, a new phenomenon and we need to adopt a new law."
Two of the expected merger - is rescued from the CCM Cajastur, and Unicaja with Cajasur, probably, will be held with the participation of € 4 billion, which had accumulated a bank deposit insurance fund, however, that money would soon be exhausted.
With the present moment, the Bank of Spain wants stronger bank structures financed acquisitions from its own resources, which is expected to occur between different banking institutions in Navarra, Rioja, Aragon and the Canary Islands, or the same for this purpose is proposed to hold a Frob .
Grants for the taxpayers' money Frob will be available only as a last resort; Ordonez also said that the authorities expect instead to see the restructuring and closure of branches to reduce costs.
Partially can say thank you to the Bank of Spain for its strict limits and closely monitored, due to which taxpayers do not spend anything to help the banks, "said Ordonez. "In our case, is very profitable, when 80% of large and medium-sized financial institutions in relatively prosperous" - he said.
Until now, property prices in Spain fall, we're ahead of many mergers and acquisitions in the financial sector. Thus Ordonez described the difficult task of supporting the reform of the banking sector, which does not affect the Spanish taxpayers.
The Financial Times
November 16
November 16
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Canada's foreign trade deficit declined in September
Canada's trade deficit fell in September to $ 927 million compared with $ 2.0 billion in the previous month.
Exports in September rose by 3,5% to $ 30.3 billion the volume of exports of Canadian goods and services continuously decreased from July 2008 and reached its minimum in May of this year. After this index rose in three of the last four months.
Automobiles, industrial goods and materials, products, machinery and equipment was the main sources of export growth in the reporting period.
The volume of imports into Canada fell in September to 0.1% to $ 31.2 billion, however, a decrease in imports in August and September failed to smooth out the sharp increase in the indicator, which was recorded in July this year.
Exports in September rose by 3,5% to $ 30.3 billion the volume of exports of Canadian goods and services continuously decreased from July 2008 and reached its minimum in May of this year. After this index rose in three of the last four months.
Automobiles, industrial goods and materials, products, machinery and equipment was the main sources of export growth in the reporting period.
The volume of imports into Canada fell in September to 0.1% to $ 31.2 billion, however, a decrease in imports in August and September failed to smooth out the sharp increase in the indicator, which was recorded in July this year.
The trade deficit in the United States rose sharply in September
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the country's foreign trade deficit increased in September at 18.2% to $ 36.5 billion
The published value of the index has surpassed forecasts of experts, who expected that the deficit will be $ 32.0 billion, is the most significant increase in the monthly trade deficit in percentage terms since February 1999.
In September, the volume of imports grew faster than export volumes. Foreign Trade Activity was restored to near pre-crisis level - the fall of 2008.
The published value of the index has surpassed forecasts of experts, who expected that the deficit will be $ 32.0 billion, is the most significant increase in the monthly trade deficit in percentage terms since February 1999.
In September, the volume of imports grew faster than export volumes. Foreign Trade Activity was restored to near pre-crisis level - the fall of 2008.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Mizuho: pound / dollar may rise to 1.6800
Against the background of improved market sentiment couple pound / dollar rebounded and now rests just below the 1.6700 mark. As the currency analysts Mizuho, steam rolled on the support trend line and 9-day moving average, and in the course of the rollback on the daily charts formed Candle doji ". According to the Bank's strategy against this backdrop pair Pound / dollar could rise again to the area of 1.6750/1.6800. As levels of resistance bank analysts put 1.6700, 1.6750 and 1.6800. Supported by speakers mark of 1.6574, 1.6515 and 1.6500. At the moment pair Pound / dollar is at 1.6666.
Euro / dollar fell after consumer sentiment data
The fall of the index of consumer sentiment University of Michigan was a complete surprise, given expectations of rising from 70.6 to 71.0 and the actual value at 66.0 points, which triggered the increased pressure on the euro / dollar. Couple tested in anticipation of the report Offer around $ 1.4850/60 turned sharply lower and checked on the strength of formal bids Asian accounts, setting a fresh session lows near $ 1.4825. Currently, the euro is kept about $ 1.4840, but the sentiment remains poor, and dealers have warned that a break below $ 1.4820 lay bare foot placed below, while the loss of support in the figures can be a catalyst more active fall.
The main event for today - a report on the GDP in the euro area
In the morning went GDP in Germany - a result consistent with expectations. Most other countries in the euro area can not get out of recession followed by Germany, so the EU's GDP could be worse than expected.
Macroeconomic data published so far this week, were pretty weak, but today will be an interesting day. Already released GDP of Germany - a result consistent with the forecast. We believe that the Eurozone GDP (published in 10:00) may disappoint market participants, since in addition to Germany, the positive impulses from nowhere to wait.
According to the monthly report on the U.S. budget deficit is $ 176.4 billion, while revenue fell to a seven-year minimum. Despite the fact that net interest expense on the debt are still low, the situation will change as soon as interest rates begin to rise.
One of the main drivers in the U.S. markets today will be the index of consumer confidence in the University of Michigan. Expected a slight improvement, which is quite feasible.
Today representatives of the Fed's Evans and Dudley (both voting members of the FOMC) will perform at various meetings on the topic of bubbles in asset prices and financial system, respectively.
Saxo Bank
Do not believe that the world has changed
Financial Analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich: Despite grand statements about the structural changes in the global economy in the world remains a very strong desire to leave everything as is. Chapter Geithner, U.S. Treasury this week repeated the old words of "strong dollar policy" and the responsibility of States to other states for such a course. Russia called on States to take concrete action.
Overloaded sales dollar FX market in the absence of news at first tried to grow on data from China, but soon strayed to the side of the dollar (perhaps a tribute Geitner), that is, adjusted the recent decline, falling to 1.4820. However, trade remained in the same range, while maintaining the uptrend in the pair euro / dollar, which is observed in March. Stock sites operated symmetrically, however, managed to update the annual maximum, but then retreated once in a quandary.
On the one hand, we have the growth of U.S. GDP to 0.9% in the third quarter, in Germany 0.7% France 0.3%, increased activity in the housing market and a clear reversal of the monthly labor market dynamics - it good news.
Bad lie in the fact that the unemployment rate in the United States, and around the world is very high, and further projections assume its subsequent growth is about a year.
The result is that growing consumer uncertainty that keeps lending costs and depressed. Oil reserves are growing, gas storage facilities are overcrowded. Growth States, Germany, France, and Russia leads frighteningly sharp rise in budget deficit. In many countries it is a record in relation to GDP for many years, but in terms of money and did the unprecedented. And in the foreseeable future, no one is going to refuse to stimulate the economy through tax breaks and maintenance of the labor market.
The deficits are growing, export-oriented countries receive support from the restoration of consumer countries and re-accumulate reserves. The only difference is that in Asia a few more "like" gold, which successfully updates the maximum after the maximum. But this does not prevent us back to the old trend: when the world economy grows, the dollar falls. Is it that this time it will be dynamic, because it benefits the U.S. and China. Target next week 1,51-1,5150 on EUR / USD, 28,50 on the USD / RUB. Gold will cost 1,130 dollars per ounce and oil $ 80 per barrel.
Overloaded sales dollar FX market in the absence of news at first tried to grow on data from China, but soon strayed to the side of the dollar (perhaps a tribute Geitner), that is, adjusted the recent decline, falling to 1.4820. However, trade remained in the same range, while maintaining the uptrend in the pair euro / dollar, which is observed in March. Stock sites operated symmetrically, however, managed to update the annual maximum, but then retreated once in a quandary.
On the one hand, we have the growth of U.S. GDP to 0.9% in the third quarter, in Germany 0.7% France 0.3%, increased activity in the housing market and a clear reversal of the monthly labor market dynamics - it good news.
Bad lie in the fact that the unemployment rate in the United States, and around the world is very high, and further projections assume its subsequent growth is about a year.
The result is that growing consumer uncertainty that keeps lending costs and depressed. Oil reserves are growing, gas storage facilities are overcrowded. Growth States, Germany, France, and Russia leads frighteningly sharp rise in budget deficit. In many countries it is a record in relation to GDP for many years, but in terms of money and did the unprecedented. And in the foreseeable future, no one is going to refuse to stimulate the economy through tax breaks and maintenance of the labor market.
The deficits are growing, export-oriented countries receive support from the restoration of consumer countries and re-accumulate reserves. The only difference is that in Asia a few more "like" gold, which successfully updates the maximum after the maximum. But this does not prevent us back to the old trend: when the world economy grows, the dollar falls. Is it that this time it will be dynamic, because it benefits the U.S. and China. Target next week 1,51-1,5150 on EUR / USD, 28,50 on the USD / RUB. Gold will cost 1,130 dollars per ounce and oil $ 80 per barrel.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States fell to 502 thousand
Number of primary applications for unemployment insurance in the U.S. declined for the week to November 7 to 12 thousand to 502 thousand rate is at record low level since early January.
Economists had expected reduction in the number of applications for unemployment benefits up to 510 thousand.
The Average value of the index over the past four weeks fell by 4.5 thousand tons to 519.75 .
The number of Americans continuing to receive unemployment benefits decreased by 139 thousand to 5, 63 million people. This indicator was at its lowest level since March this year.
Economists had expected reduction in the number of applications for unemployment benefits up to 510 thousand.
The Average value of the index over the past four weeks fell by 4.5 thousand tons to 519.75 .
The number of Americans continuing to receive unemployment benefits decreased by 139 thousand to 5, 63 million people. This indicator was at its lowest level since March this year.
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