Saturday, October 31, 2009

The mood of consumers in the U.S. have improved in October

According to a study conducted by the University of Michigan consumer sentiment in the U.S. have improved in late October.
Consumer sentiment index rose to a mark of 70.6 compared with 69.4 in early October. The growth rate exceeded the forecasts of experts. Economists expected the index to increase the level of 70,5.
Note that the index of consumer sentiment is still below the 73.5 that was recorded in September.

Canadian GDP fell by 0.1% in August

Canadian GDP fell by 0.1% in August. Recall that in July this figure remained unchanged from the previous month.
The main reason for decline of the economy of Canada in the reporting period was the loss of oil and natural gas. In addition, the decline in GDP affected by decline in industrial production, decline in wholesale trade, agriculture and forestry.
At the same time, growth in the public sector, retail trade and construction somewhat soothed by the fall in the above sectors.

Consumer spending in the United States fell sharply in September

Consumer spending in the U.S. fell sharply in September in connection with the expiration of the program "cash-for-clunkers", which was developed by the U.S. government to stimulate car sales.
Real consumer spending to inflation fell in September to 0.6% after rising 1% in August.
Real disposable incomes fell by 0,1%. This figure continues to decline for the fourth consecutive month.
Economists expect a decrease in nominal consumer spending at 0.4% and decrease in consumer income by 0,1%.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Currenex Alpari Direct - trading platform ECN

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Unemployment in the euro zone rose in September to 9.7%, as expected

Taking into account seasonal factors, unemployment in the eurozone reached 9.7% in September this year, said the EU statistical agency Eurostat. Rate corresponds to analysts' forecasts. A month earlier, unemployment in the area of the single European currency was 9,6%. Note that this is the highest value of the unemployment rate since January 1999. In annual terms the index rose by 2,6% (from 7,1% in September 2008).
The total number of unemployed in the euro zone rose in September to 184 000 in monthly terms and amounted to 15.324 million. On an annual basis the total number of unemployed has increased by 3, 204 million people.

Preliminary assessment of the level of inflation in the euro area: -0.1% for October

Data on annual inflation in the euro area (harmonized index of consumer prices), published today, the EU statistical agency Eurostat, consistent with analysts' forecasts.
According to preliminary estimates, the annual consumer price index for the euro area amounted to -0,1% in October. Recall that in September the annual inflation rate was -0.3%.

The index of house prices Nationwide has grown less than expected in October

Index of house prices Nationwide in the UK rose in October to 0,4%. Recall that in the previous month had risen to 0,9%, and in October predicted an increase of 0,7%.
In annual terms, house prices in Britain back to a positive mark for the first time since March 2008, an increase of 2,0% in October compared to 0,0% in the previous month.
Average price of homes in Britain during the reporting period amounted to 162 038 pounds compared with 161 816 pounds a month earlier.

Aggressive dollar / yen sellers could return to the market

To begin with, that our prediction was confirmed yesterday - the breakdown of the level of resistance 90.80, resulted in increasing bullish sentiment and the growth of quotations in the region of local maxima, but near the 91.50 level upward movement has slowed down and began selling the dollar / yen, which are still going on ...

USD / JPY


Now look at the indicators:

Exchange rate is below the moving averages with periods of 89 and 144, which are strong levels of support for 90.90 and 90.20/00, but above average with periods of 55 and 34 - resistance levels 91.20/30 and 91.50 respectively.

The MACD histogram is located in the negative zone, began to decline in the near future may cross its signal line downwards, and thereby generate a signal to sell the dollar / yen.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone and has already formed such a signal as the% K line crossed the line% D top-down and start to fall below it.

Therefore, as a confirmation that the market can return the aggressive sellers of dollar / yen, it remained only to wait for the breakdown level of support to 90.90/80, which could open the way for the bears to the levels of 90.20/00 and 89.40.

Resistance Levels: 91.00, 91.30/50, 91.80, 92.00/10, 92.50, 92.70, 93.00

Current price: 90.96

Levels of support: 90.90/80, 90.50, 90.20/00, 89.70, 89.50, 89.30, 89.10/00

Euro / dollar remains under pressure

A pleasant surprise from the report, Chicago PMI, as well as a slightly higher rate of index of consumer sentiment for October, the University of Michigan failed to inspire the bulls in the euro / dollar for a new assault attempt. Euro is currently continuing pressingovat session lows, and while the bids around $ 1.4780/70 while holding back a couple of further fall, dealers are reminded of feet below, and pay attention to the rebalancing of the positions of market participants at the end of the week and month. They note that investors have left a large amount of long positions in the euro, and see the risks to decline to $ 1.4760/50 and $ 1.4730/20.

Say "Goodbye!" Pre-crisis trend

There is a pleasant myth of the business cycle. All of this - only the fluctuations around the underlying trend. Production during the boom was even higher sustainable level. During a recession, this figure was below the level. The budget deficit in a phase of decline can be and should be offset by surpluses accumulated in the boom years. Regardless of whether optimistic or pessimistic you are tuned in the context of stabilization policies, they exist in their own sphere and economic policies can focus on measures of "supply side".



Unfortunately, this is quite symmetrical image belied by the facts. There is a widespread view that the damage caused during a recession, associated with the financial crisis, tends to be twice as much during the traditional recession. More important is the conclusion that most of the losses in production during the recession is permanent and that the economy will never return to its old trend line. These findings have been demonstrated in some detail by the late Christopher Dow (Christopher Dow) in his study "The primary recession," which was published in 1998. Although some research has been thorough and fundamental, with today's macro-economy has little correlated. Latest world economic outlook the IMF has already appeared, however, have something to accuse him, it concerns the fourth chapter, which, unfortunately, only available on the Internet.

The authors of the report, the IMF estimated that the output from the financial crisis remains at 10% below trend in the medium term, which is defined as seven years. Of course, this average with a tolerance on both sides. In Chile, since 1981 and in Mexico, since 1994, output grew much faster than the previous trend, whereas after 1997 in Japan, growth has stagnated for many years. Average score may exaggerate the impression of sustained loss of production capacities. This may be due to prolonged effects of the recession, which would require more than seven years to completely disappear. UK Treasury provides a permanent loss in the economy of 5% of GDP.

Countries that are currently in the midst of a banking crisis, in the amount accounted for half of real GDP of all developed countries. This is equivalent to the GDP of about $ 40,000 bn (€ 27,050 bn, £ 24,440 bn) for the year. If we apply the 5% underestimation in terms of production, the future hole in the world economy of up to $ 2,000 billion, that is little consolation, because, according to the IMF, the economy, which allow for counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary stimulus in the short term to mitigate the slowdown in the aftermath of the crisis, as tend to experience less decline in the medium term. "

Interestingly enough, these studies show a possible return to pre-crisis growth rate with a lower level. I can not help but notice that it is a very convenient result for the politicians, because they are blamed for the causes of the crisis, and the output of the recovery phase is intended to be the return of new, even lower trend, resulting in them will be difficult to clearly blame insufficient growth .

A detailed analysis of the IMF suggests that the higher structural unemployment, slower accumulation of capital and lower productivity growth played an important role in explaining long-term decline in output since the financial crisis. National Institute of Great Britain primarily emphasizes a high price for risk, which may increase the actual cost of capital, resulting in higher commissions for the purchase of shares on the stock market.

But I'm not quite sure. Based on the vision of Keynes, which is set out in the last few chapters of his general theory, there is a persistent tendency for savings in connection with the natural excess of investment opportunities and, therefore, full employment is achieved, in rare cases, such as wartime or at the peak of the boom. According to this analysis, no need to explain the loss in production during the collapse, but unstable, high levels that preceded it. That is why Keynes advocated the preservation of low interest rates in order to alleviate the stagnant trend. This picture is not possible in the postwar decades, but may come into its own now, with the emergence of chronic surpluses of Asian economies.

If China and other countries are chronic "savers" who can be "sverhzaemschikami? Over the years they have been consumers of "Anglo-Saxon" model of the economy. But even if there was no banking crisis, sooner or later they would have to face the prudential limits of their debt levels as a result, only the public authorities will take out loans. The proposals enunciated kinds of money can cause dissatisfaction of the authorities that they do so on their own. But the right approach may be at St. Augustine: "It will make me virtuous, but not now" - where "not now", which is still a very long time.



The Financial Times
October 29

U.S. GDP grew by 3.5% in third quarter

Growth of the U.S. economy in the third quarter amounted to 3,5%. Volume incentive program of the U.S. government allowed the country's economy out of the very long and deep recession, with 30 years of the last century.
GDP growth in the third quarter was the first in the current year and the most significant in the past two years. Before reporting period, U.S. GDP has been declining steadily for four consecutive quarters. This was the first time since the Great Depression.
Compared with the same period last year, U.S. GDP fell by 2.3%.

Number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States dropped to 531 thousand

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits declined for the past week.
Index fell for the week to Oct. 24 at 1 thousand to 531 thousand average value of the index over the past four weeks dropped to 6 tons to 526.25 thousand.
In the same time, the number of Americans continuing to receive unemployment benefits decreased by one week October 17 at 148 thousand to 5,8 million people. This indicator is at its lowest level since March this year.

CBR should inflation

Financial Analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich: On Thursday, the board of directors of Bank of Russia decided to lower the refinancing rate by half a percentage point to 9,5%. As stated in the declaration, such a decision in the first place "stimulates the activity of the credit of the banking sector. This means that the Bank intends to continue to struggle with the strengthening of the ruble, using not only the purchase of currency on the market.

One reason for the deepest recession in Russia served as a huge amount of foreign loans. If the situation gets out of control the central bank may apply the effective action only in respect of its own currency. During the fall, economic activity is an objective measure of the depreciation of the currency, but in our circumstances (and an even greater extent in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe), this policy simply increases the volume of bad debts.

One solution to the Central Bank has been a significant limitation on the issuance of new loans in foreign currency. But in the long term, not long-term use of protective barriers. Another option is to bring monetary policy in conformity with what is observed in the creditor countries, of course, subject to Russian realities. As is evident from the statement of the Central Bank, this is the ultimate goal of policy. The stakes for business in the 14-18%% APR prohibitively large, they consume a significant portion of the profit only to debt servicing. And in this case slowing of inflation favors the monetary authorities. Following its decline in the Bank can cut rates, making them more acceptable to companies originating loans in rubles.

Inflation may slow down for two reasons: a weak activity in the country and the strengthening of the ruble against other currencies for external reasons. But strengthening of the ruble has many other negative effects (pressure on Russia's companies and the growth of speculative interest rate). With great probability it can be said that the chosen course for further narrowing the interest rate differential between Russia and other countries with a gradual weakening of the screws on lending in foreign currency. While these restrictions still look reasonable.

On hand in this case will deter the growth of energy prices. Such a trivial move for oil-exporting countries suddenly began to move and some representatives OPEK.Pri such developments in the coming years we will not talk about the windfall from oil and curbing the growth rate of the ruble and inflation.

In the short term, the ruble may still continue to rise for this week to 28.80 on news of the strengthening of economic activity in the world and the development antidollarovyh sentiment. New highs for oil can also strengthen the value of the ruble to a basket, today it has updated at least since the beginning of the year, referring to 35,33 p. As a result, increases the likelihood of further reductions in rates and falling inflation, but it is unlikely to create jobs and stimulate business activity.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Keltner Channels MT4 Indicator


The Keltner Channel indicator locates the most important trends. The indicator is based on principles similar to those used in Envelopes and Bollinger Bands. The difference is in that instead of percentage (Envelopes) or standard deviations (Bollinger Bands),

the average true range is used here. The upper band is calculated as the moving average plus the average, for N periods, true range.
The lower band is the moving average minus the average true range.

As a rule, the upper band detects that the market is overbought and that correction will most probably be down-directed.
The lower band means that the market is oversold and that correction will most probably be up-directed.


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Elliot Wave Oscillator is Used to determine trading positions.

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Day Impuls MT4 Indicator


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Array Test MT4 Indicator


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RBS recommends buying euro / dollar on the decline

As the currency analysts Royal Bank of Scotland, the rising trend of the euro remains in force, and investors should buy the currency at lower. The bank's strategy pay attention to the fact that the euro / dollar has declined and is now in the middle part of the recent consolidation range.
In the case of a deeper correction of a couple may go down to the area of $ 1.45, but it is unlikely this decline will be long.
Bank analysts believe that in the medium term investors should buy the euro / dollar to decline. Currently, the euro / dollar bargains at level of $ 1.4847.

Oil prices and bank profitability

Bank balances oil-exporting economies have suffered in recent times. This column offers the first empirical evidence that links the price of oil to the activities of banks in these economies. It suggests that the simple observation of the price of oil can indicate the macro-prudential regulation in these countries and to mitigate pro-cyclicality of bank lending.

The recent financial crisis and a sharp drop in oil prices hit the economy of exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Export revenues to the government and financial balances fell sharply, reducing GDP growth and asset prices / real estate, which has made tensions both in the corporate and the banking balance sheet, loan growth in the private sector has deteriorated substantially. In some countries, governments were forced to intervene in the domestic financial sector to guarantee deposits, maintaining liquidity, capital injections or asset purchases (using state features, such as sovereign wealth funds), as indicators of financial sector deteriorated. In particular, banks that provide a lot of credit for the purchase of real estate and other tangible assets have suffered the heaviest losses due to falling prices of these them.

Given the dependence on oil exports, the relationship between the price of black gold, and the efficiency of the banking system, the stability of the whole system is interesting from the standpoint not only of the current crisis, but also the previous cycles oil booms. Do the prices of oil on the efficiency of the banking system, and, if so, through what channels? Or still no direct link between oil prices and banks, if we have a view of macroeconomic and bank-specific factors? Are there any differences between commercial, investment and Islamic banks? What was the impact of the global financial crisis on the profitability of banks and the relationship with oil prices

The influence of oil prices on the efficiency of banks
• Oil prices affect the economy through direct and indirect channels. Shocks in oil prices may affect the profitability of banks directly via an increase in non-oil lending, business activity or excess liquidity in the banking system.

• Indirectly, the prospects for oil revenues affect the budget since oil revenues make up the largest part of external and government revenues in the MENA. This, in turn, affects the corporate and bank profitability through the provision of credit to the private sector.

• Another indirect channel is connected with the expectations and the general sentiment in the business in the country. Rising oil prices may lead to an increase in domestic demand, which will provide feedback to a large bank credibility, lending and interest rates.

• On the part of aggregate demand, production capacity of the country can also be expanded to include new public and private investment, fueled by high oil prices, driving the growth rate even further.

Similar effects were evident during the pre-crisis boom (IMF, 2009). Between 2005 and 2008, supported by high prices for oil-exporting countries have participated in major investment programs to diversify the national economy and development of human capital. Financial institutions receive a handsome profit and seemed to be resilient, having sufficient capital to low-performing loans.

What does the literature?
In general, the study of profitability of banks cover a wide range of countries and regions, and in the banking literature is that profitability depends on the particular bank and macroeconomic factors. From the standpoint of the bank - specific factors, such as credit risk, liquidity, size, efficiency and ownership, has been found, are the main factors determining the effectiveness of the Bank (Molyneux and Thornton, 1992, Miller and Noulas, 1997, Demirguc-Kunt and Huizinga, 2000). Profitability of banks can also be very constant, (Athanasoglu et al, 2008) that permits a certain level of concentration and market power in the banking industry of both capital and manufacturing markets.

In terms of macroeconomic variables, researchers found a link between inflation, interest rates and profitability, as well as with business cycles and bank efficiency (Demirguc-Kunt and Huizinga, 2000; Flamini et al, 2009). Banks usually have the ability to adjust interest rates if the (expected) inflation increases, which can provide feedback to higher revenues and profits. Communication from Council of the Gulf Cooperation (GCC) may be somewhat different, since the exchange rate pegged to the dollar, and this means that inflation is imported from abroad (bearing in mind that monetary policy aims at maintaining the course).

Empirical academic literature on the differences in commercial and Islamic banks are very rare and mostly affect the financial stability (Cihak and Hesse, 2008), without considering its relationship with the oil - the main source of revenue for oil-exporting countries. Conceptually, the fact that Islamic banks often tend to finance their bonds, bypassing the Sharia-compliant deposits and higher oil prices due to higher liquidity and, consequently, the influx of deposits, which contribute to lending, so a positive correlation between oil prices and bank performance for Islamic banks seems quite likely. Oil prices have fallen from their peak of $ 140 per barrel and reduced liquidity not only struck by the Islamic banks but also for their traditional partners, so that the differential impact is not obvious a priori. One would expect that the investment banks with their typical model of wholesale trade and more potent effect than the rules and other Islamic banks suffer from liquidity shortage.

New proof
In Poghosyan and Hesse (2009), we empirically examine the relationship between shocks to oil prices and bank performance in MENA countries (Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, UAE and Yemen), using banking data for the period 1994-2008 and dynamic management techniques. To our knowledge, no research clearly affects the exporting country and bank efficiency. Inclusion of changes in oil prices and turmoil, as the system variables, in this context is the innovation and the use of different definitions for shocks ensures reliable results. As the business model of commercial, investment and Islamic banks were likely to show differences, we also investigate the influence of banking expertise to its profitability. Our data suggest that oil prices affect the banking profitability indirectly, through macro-channels. In particular, the main macro-channels serve as fiscal relations, inflation, and (in part) the real growth of GDP. In terms of differences in the types of banks, we see that investment banks are at highest impact and most sensitive to oil price shocks, which are caused by its buoyancy, costs, trade and income received during the price peak, and also supported by extra-related Oil liquidity that is included in the financial system. However, this result should be interpreted with some caution, since we are not responsible for the real estate prices (due to lack of data), which could have a significant impact on the profitability of commercial and Islamic banks. Moreover, given the heterogeneity of data on bank balance sheets, we can not fully grasp the relationship between the type of bank and oil price shocks. We also found preliminary evidence that the global financial crisis has reduced the positive impact on the connection between the jumps in oil prices and the profitability of banks. In terms of bank-specific variables, greater liquidity and efficiency, capitalized banks have higher profits and maintain it for some time.

Implications of policy
Our results have interesting political implications, since they provide the first evidence of the importance of systemic jumps in oil prices for banking efficiency in the exporting countries. We had presumed evidence of this relationship, but they have not been verified empirically. In particular, these results indicate that the oil price shocks can be used for the purposes of macro-prudential regulation in the countries of MENA, as oil prices tracked more easily than using conventional measures of business cycle (such as the deviation of GDP from its potential level). For example, the capitalization of the bank's relationship with the shock to oil prices could help alleviate the pro-cyclical bank lending and allow banks to use their bag, created during the boom period, in order to ensure that lending during recessions.



Authors Heiko Hesse, IMF economist for the Middle East and Central Asia, and Tigran Poghosyan, an economist at the IMF.

VoxEU.com
October 27

Index of confidence in the euro-zone economy grew more than expected in October

Index of confidence in the euro-zone economy (Euro-Zone Economic Confidence) for October was 86.2 points, reports the European Commission. Value index surpassed expectations of analysts projected an increase to 84.4 points. Recall that a month earlier figure stood at 82.8 points.
The index of consumer confidence (Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence) for October increased to -19 points to -18 points in the forecast -17 points.
The index of confidence in the business community (Business Climate Indicator) was -1.78 points for October at the previous value of -2.07 points and prognosis of -1.90 points.

The number of unemployed in Germany fell by 26 000 in October

According to the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany, the number of unemployed in Germany, seasonally adjusted fell by 26 000 in October.
Thus analysts predicted the increase rate of 17 000. The previous month the number of unemployed in Germany fell by 15 000 (previously reported a reduction of 12 000).
Unemployment rate seasonally adjusted amounted to 8,1% in October compared to 8,2% in the previous month and the forecast at 8,3%.
Given the seasonal fluctuations of the total number of unemployed has declined over the reporting period from 3 346 million to $ 3 229 million.

Societe Generale: the trend is still your friend

Societe Generale analysts are increasingly concerned. They say the trend - your friend, until he was replaced by another trend. The bank advised to exercise caution: this may have happened. The ongoing rollback of risky assets, possibly no more than another obstacle to the restoration of the world economy, which in the past few months we have seen a lot. However, the bank pay attention to the first since December last year, reducing the weekly index of the Institute of advanced studies of economic cycles (ECRI). Bank analysts are reminded that the false dawns and occurred during the "lost decade" of Japan, therefore, advised to closely monitor leading indicators.

Microcredit gives light to poor rural

Ahmedabad, India - When in remote areas of Africa and the Indian subcontinent night falls, hundreds of millions of people living without electricity, have resorted to using candles and flammable, polluting the air, kerosene candles.

Very slowly, with the help of microloans to buy fed by solar energy devices, micro brings light to these rural areas where electricity shortages have driven into a corner and economic development, education and health.

"Before they could do little after sunset. Now, the sun is used differently. They have increased their productivity, improved health and socio-economic status ", - said Pina Shah (Pinal Shah), working in microcredit institutions Sewa bank.

Seller vegetables Ramiben Wagri (Ramiben Waghri) took out a loan to buy a solar lantern, which she uses to cover his stall at night. Lantern stands at around $ 66-112, which is approximately weekly income Wagri.

"Vegetables look better by this light, it is cheaper than using kerosene and does not smell" - said Wagri, which assesses the daily supplement to their income of about 300 rupees ($ 6).

"If we can use the sun to save a little money, why not?"

In India, solar energy projects are often financed micro-credit institutions that help countries to reduce carbon emissions and achieve its goal of doubling the participation of renewable energy sources in the industry to 6% (25,000 megawatts) over four years.

Stand-alone devices such as solar panels and lights, which can provide several hours of light at night, charged by the sun during the day, will help reduce dependence on fossil fuels and reduce the carbon footprint of the fourth largest source of emissions, "said Pradeep Dadich (Pradeep Dadhich), Senior Researcher at a research university TERI.

"They are used by people who have limited or no access to electricity and depend on kerosene, diesel or wood," - he said.

"These devices not only meet these needs, they also improve the quality of life and reduce carbon dioxide emissions."

SEWA (Self-Employed Women's Association) - is one of their fast-growing microfinance institutions in India, which aims to provide poor people affordable renewable sources of energy that would otherwise have to stand for hours in queues for kerosene for lamps, or to overcome the miles to stock up firewood to cook the food.

SKS Microfinance - the largest manufacturer in India, predagaet sun lamp for 5 million of its customers, while, as Grameen Surya Bijlee Foundation (deals with problems of solar electricity for villagers) is helping to finance the purchase of lamps, home and street lighting systems for rural India, Nepal and Bangladesh .

"Electricity - is the task of government, but it is a huge task alone and it will fail," - said the coordinator of the South Asia Renewable Energy and its efficient use of Shirish Garud (Shirish Garud).

"In many cases, the end user can not access traditional banking services and financial services, which is why we need to microfinance.

Aryavart Gramin Bank has approved loans for the installation of 8000 solar home systems in Uttar Pradesh, India's largest state, which is also the largest producer of grain.

In remote areas of Africa and, through microloans, homes, schools and individual companies appears electricity. Poor people use money they would spend on kerosene to repay their loans taken for purchase of solar panels.

Billion lamps
Hundreds of millions of people in India are limited or no access to electricity. Nevertheless, the growing demand for electricity by industries in a country that sees its GDP growth rate of 9% or higher over the next three years and in 2007/2008 was faced with serious problems in facilities and infrastructure.

Of the 76 million homes that do not have access to electricity, 65 million use kerosene released into the atmosphere. According to REEP, kerosene is flammable and produces smoke. Every year thousands of people in developing countries die from accidents that result from kerosene lamps and stoves.

Developing countries currently emit more than half of all greenhouse gases in the world, and this figure will grow.

As expected, emissions of greenhouse gases in India would jump from about 4 billion tons to 7.33 billion tons by 2031. Currently in India there is no accurate data on emissions of greenhouse gases.

Per capita emissions are 1.2 tonnes, the expected growth is 2.1 tons by 2020, according to a recent study financed by the state.

India adds about 10 gigawatts of energy each year and are likely to face a shortage of 21,000 megawatts, as well as the expansion of production capacity can not keep up with demand, leading to a greater number of outages. Solar energy is a little relieve network.

In neighboring Bangladesh, the public and the private sector can generate from 3700 to 4300 megawatts daily against a demand of 5500 megawatts, according to the State Administration for energy development.

Only 40% of the population have access to electricity, microfinance institutions, as the Grameen Bank made a major push to expand the use of solar energy.

Since 2001, Bangladesh was established 350,000 solar home systems and 550,000 solar lanterns have been implemented, allowing electricity to about 4 million.

"At the moment 2.5 million people benefit from solar energy, and we plan to achieve the target of 10 million people who use this type of energy by 2012," said Deepa Chandra Barua (Dipal Chandra Barua), Executive Director of Grameen Shakti, which is an affiliate of Grameen Bank, awarded the 2006 Nobel Prize in the field of alternative energy sources.

Alternative Energy
Renewable energy in India produces less than 3% of the total power consumption in the country, and the main source is the wind.

Investor interest in solar energy grows, new plans for the use of solar energy will be sounded in December, in conjunction with the Summit in Copenhagen on climate change.

In the western state of Gujarat, which launched its own program for the development of solar energy in the beginning of the year, planned to build solar parks. But even here, microfinance helps to power lamps and stoves, as the scale of towns, both small towns, where there is power failure.


She sews clothes for the sewing machine, fed by solar energy in the city of Ahmedabad in western India, Sep 10. 2009

REEEP, which is developing 10 projects on renewable energy with the help of microfinance, believes that the required 234 billion rupees ($ 49 billion) to provide electricity for 65 million rural homes.

This amount is less than half the total subsidy, which provides the government to make kerosene affordable for the poor.

Part of this money will come from microfinance institutions, which face significantly less risk by issuing short-term loans for equipment for the accumulation of solar energy. REEP, along with the Research Institute of Energy TERI, are campaigning is "light billions of lives", which aims to replace kerosene lamps solar energy.

Launched last year with the help of partners such as the Clinton Climate Initiative, this program provided the energy of more than 100 villages.

Sewa's Project Urja ( "energy") with financial support from US-based Lemelson Foundation, partners India's Solar Electric Light Co (SELCO) move toward the improvement of solar devices.

"It's cheaper, environmentally friendly and requires less maintenance," said Pina Shah, responsible for energy projects in the Sewa Bank, which provided more than 6 million rupees ($ 124,000) in loans for the purchase of solar panels, approximately 10% of the 300,000 claiming the credit.

Other devices SELCO, include head lamps for midwives, solar panels for the farmers, distributing of silk worms for silk industry, sewing machines, working on solar panels.

In the congested area Jamalpur in Ahmedabad, a small shop Salma Mohammed highlighted the expense of solar energy on the batteries, bought on credit for 33,000 rupees, which provided Sewa Bank.

"This store has helped me raise my children," the tale he. Solar panels have improved our lives, giving us enough to be thankful.

($ 1 = 48 rupees)


Micro loans bring light to rural poor
Reuters
October 27

"Anti-risk" trend continues. The dollar reached a critical point

At previous sessions, the markets continued their game against the risk: a series of weak U.S. reports, faded stock markets and triggered stop-loss - all these factors helped the dollar advance. Dollar Index reached its maximum value by more than 2 weeks at the level of 76.559. We all sat down in their heads now, one question: what brings the current dollar rally - a new opportunity for him to sell or the beginning of something more sinister. As an index of the dollar should pay special attention to the level of 76.62, which will play a decisive role. Note also that the S & P500 index closed below the 55-day moving average for the first time from July 14, and is a possible sign of further decline.

Let us turn to the statistics. Orders for durable goods in the United States amounted to 1%, thus, met expectations of analysts. A good indicator is that the improvements were concentrated in volatile sectors, such as increased orders for capital goods. The only drawback in the report was revised from the previous month in the lower side. Further published disappointing sales data on the primary housing market. Despite the favorable credit conditions and tax breaks sales for the month fell by 3,6%. Saved too high stock of unsold homes. With behind the weak consumer confidence, the markets meet today's report on GDP for the 3 rd quarter in a gloomy mood.

Central banks, which held a meeting on monetary policy during the night and yesterday's trading session, did not change market expectations, however, the content of the accompanying statements caused some discontent among the masses. Bank of Norway raised its rates by 25 bps, but warned that further increases might be smaller, may be postponed or even canceled, if the strengthening of the Norwegian krone will exceed the planned amount. A strong blow to all the "bull" by the crown. This morning, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept the rate unchanged, as expected, however, the tone of the accompanying statement was more pessimistic than expected by market participants. RBNZ left the old policy, saying he was not going to raise interest rates until the second half of 2010. Also, the Central Bank again expressed his concern that the high New Zealand dollar negative impact on exports. From these statements the New Zealand dollar accelerated the decline, which began even earlier under the influence of a general reduction of risk transactions in the Commodity block.

In the current "anti-risk" conditions Asia ignored the news that the leaders of two parties of the Senate - the Democratic and Republican - unanimously called for the extension and increase in shedding program of tax incentives for the primary buyers, however, vote for this measure is likely to postponed until next week. Also at the previous session broke the news of a possible new case of fraud among hedge funds in the style Madoff. There were reports that are being investigated in the case of a German fund of funds. This was an additional factor for risk reduction.

Australian dollar, which has recently been experiencing serious difficulties, was unable to rely on new articles of known explorers RBA MakKrenna and Mitchell. Both are now projected rate increase next week by 25 bps, and Mitchell went further and said that the December increase is not "made" the case, as many believe. Australian dollar for only a short time, stayed above the 0.90 mark, after which most of the Asian session decline.

Pay attention to the current statistics: in Europe come data on unemployment in Denmark, Norway and Germany, retail sales in Norway, the consumer lending in the UK and confidence in the eurozone, the U.S. major news will report on GDP for the 3 rd quarter. The market expects a significant improvement compared with the 2 nd quarter, and the average forecast is 3.2%. We set a little over optimistic and expect growth of 3,6%, secured the influence of "trash for NAL and tax incentives for the primary buyers of housing. In addition, Canada will come the price indices of industrial raw materials, and in the United States - a weekly report on the appeals for unemployment insurance.


Saxo Bank

Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell by 3,6%

Sales in the primary housing market in the U.S. fell in September for the first time since March this year. According to U.S. Commerce Department, sales of new homes fell 3.6% to 402 thousand
Experts expect sales growth to about 438 thousand mark in connection with tax incentives for primary home buyers and new policies to curb the Fed's mortgage interest rates.
Compared with the same period last year, sales in the primary market fell by 7,8%.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

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M3 euro zone fell to 1.8% in September

M3 euro area (an indicator of the money supply) amounted to 1,8% in September compared with 2.6% in the previous month. Analysts expected decline to 2,1%. Note that the monetary aggregate M3 includes the amount of cash currency in circulation, means of check deposits, deposits with maturities of less than 4 years and is considered one of the most important indicators of inflation.
Index of private credit in the eurozone fell by 0.3% in September compared with an increase of 0,1% in the previous month. Indicator forecasts of -0.2%.

Euro is more expensive than a pound before the end of the year

Today, one of six bank Moors BNP Paribas said that in 2009 the pound sterling could fall to parity with the euro. Today, steam EUR / GBP is trading at around 0.9070, up from 0.84 in mid-June. The jump came when it became clear that the Bank of England will continue to build a program to repurchase the assets, despite the improvement in the global financial sector. What happens to the pound and the UK economy is studying financial analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich.

In Russia, considered to be the beginning of the crisis in September last year. But in fact the developed world crisis began one year earlier. In September 2007, in the UK because of losses on U.S. sub-prime mortgage securities, was taken to balance the state a major bank Northern Rock. Since it became abundantly clear that the credit crisis in the U.S., will lead to worse consequences in the UK. As a result - the tightening of credit in the country, and the collapse of property prices, which partly helped to mitigate the monetary policy.

The year before the bankruptcy of U.S. giant Lehman pound has lost 15% against the euro (EUR / GBP rose from 0.6730 to 0.7750). After loud bankruptcy and rapid deterioration in the economy pound has fallen in price to a single currency by 26% (to 0.98) to the beginning of the year. As repeatedly noted by the representatives of the Bank of England, is weakening played a positive role in the economy, supporting industry and services, and leaving a positive inflation in the country. After Armageddon in the minds of market players is over, sterling has been gradually restoring its position. He became a kind of mirror for the financial sector. Pound bought on positive news from the banks and sold on the negative.

At the moment if we compare the euro area (not scratchy EU) and Britain, the latter certainly looks worse. GDP fell in the UK for the year to 5,5% for the second quarter and 4,5% in the euro zone. In the third quarter of Britain's economy is once again demonstrating the decline in the euro area reasonably expect positive growth rates.

Such a sad situation for Albion reinforced expectations of quantitative easing monetary policy already at a future meeting of the Bank of England (5 November). Perhaps such assumptions and BNP Paribas was forced to revise the forecast for the pound to parity this year, but not in the first quarter of next.

Nevertheless, the weakening of the pound is very effective method of recovery. Bank of England has "published" a huge amount of 175 billion pounds. While the financial system remains "frostbitten", and injections are not fully reflected in the dynamics of the market, but in the next few quarters it will definitely happen. As a result, the pound, we will probably see the same picture as the U.S. dollar: for a healthy economy and to reduce the debt burden will be useful to drop the course, and it is unlikely that officials will be hindered.

The balance of total retail sales CBI Britain has improved significantly in October

According to a survey of the British Confederation of Industrialists (CBI), the balance of total retail sales (Retail sales volume balance) was 8% in October compared with 3% a month earlier. However analysts predicted that figure will rise to 6%.
Worth noting that this second increase in the index, after falling for four consecutive months. According to preliminary data CBI, in November, the balance of total retail sales will reach 19% (the maximum value from July 2007).
British Confederation of Industrialists represents the interests of 20 000 enterprises, which provide 40% of employment in the retail sector. The October survey is based on survey 136 companies.

UBS predicts growth of dollar / franc to the end of the year

According to currency analysts UBS, the recent restoration of the dollar / franc could be due to the fact that investors will convert denominated in foreign currency savings back into dollar assets. The bank believes that this process has undoubtedly contributed to the restoration of the American currency, however, is unknown to what extent these flows will be able to compensate for unfavorable for the dollar long-term fundamentals. Projected UBS, in the 4 th quarter pair dollar / franc rise to a mark of 1.09, while in the 1 st quarter of 2010 will drop to a level of 1.07. At the moment pair dollar / franc is trading at around 1.0177.

Negative economic statistics supported the dollar

News from the United States was not the most positive and unexpected drop in the index of consumer confidence from the Conference Board to 53.4 to 47.7 points and the index of business activity FRB Richmond from 14 to 7 points in October, provoked a weakening appetite for risk. As a result, the euro / dollar struck support at $ 1.4840 and fell to fresh session lows around $ 1.4788, where bids placed up to $ 1.4785, while holding back the onslaught of the bears. Meanwhile, the pound / dollar, even before the publication of the report demonstrated the onset of weakness, broke the defense of the bulls at $ 1.6350, and returned to bids near the Asian session lows.

Commerzbank: too early to talk about the end of the downtrend of the dollar

According to currency analysts Commerzbank, yesterday's strengthening of the dollar can hardly be regarded as a signal to the end of the downtrend of the U.S. currency. The bank believes that declare the weakening U.S. dollar would be premature. Currency U.S. remains under pressure due to continued low interest rates, due to which increases its attractiveness as a funding currency transactions carry trade. Nevertheless, the growth of the euro against the dollar, perhaps a little exhausted strength, and positive data published today a report on consumer confidence in the United States may have additional pressure on the single European currency. At the time of the data, the euro / dollar traded at 1.4855.

Dollar / yen. The second day of trading does not go far beyond the relatively narrow price range of 91.70-92.30

Drawing attention to the 4 hours chart, we can see that a pronounced uptrend continues, but at the same time, the second day of trading does not go far beyond the relatively narrow price range of 91.70-92.30

USD / JPY



Current price levels are still located above the moving averages with periods of 34, 55, 89 and 144, which is directed upwards and point to the continuing bullish sentiment.

The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, but has crossed its signal line from the top down, continues to gradually decline, and thus formed a signal to sell the dollar / yen.

Stochastic Oscillator out of the overbought zone and formed the same signal as the% K line began to fall below the% D.

Therefore, just as yesterday, we expect that the correction will continue and increase, if it is punctured by the level of support 91.30, which could open the way for the bears to the levels of 90.80 and 90.40.

Levels of resistance: 92.00/10, 92.50, 92.70, 93.00

Current price: 91.95

Support levels: 91.70, 91.50, 91.00, 90.70, 90.50, 90.20/00

Monday, October 26, 2009

Food will never be so cheap again

Cleaning biofuel plants in the U.S. set new records on the use of grain for each month since May. Almost a third of U.S. corn harvest will be directed to the production of ethanol engines, which is 12% of the crop worldwide.

World grain reserves declined from 4 kneading in 2000 to 2.6 months, even though two unprecedented harvest in North America. China's reserves are at 30-year low. Asian stocks of rice are close to dangerous levels.

Agricultural products have suffered greatly because of reflyatsionnogo rally in metals, oil and everything else. Dylan Grice of Socialite General sees a "ground floor" price.

Wheat has fallen 70% since 2008. Corn fell by half. Prodkty agriculture were in Comma delimited within the last 6 months. This divergence within the commodity areas untenable, given the relationship of ethanol and petroleum.

For investors who want to cash in on a congested Rally - (The transport index of Wall Street and Russell 2000 have collapsed last week) is a great chance to cheaply pouchavstvovat in history, which later becomes an essential part of our lives.

Barack Obama has not walked away from Bush's policies on biofuels, in spite of food riots in several poor countries in the past year and a moratorium. A subsidy of 45 cents per gallon remains in force.

This motivation is strategic in nature. United States with enormous speed away from imported energy and will not be held hostage to oil again demagoguery, as well as not going to tolerate insults from countries that can not feed themselves. Beijing students, who laughed at the U.S. Treasury Tim Geitner (Tim Geithner) is hardly a good laugh last, because the U.S. is an agricultural superpower and soon opponents will understand why this is so important.

World population is growing, adding "another Britain" every year. The trend will continue until mid-century. By this time we will have 2.4 billion extra mouths to feed, which will need to feed.

China and Southeast Asia switch to animal protein, as the welfare of these countries is growing rapidly, as it was in Korea in the recent past. Requires approximately 3-5 kg. feed grain to get 1 kg. meat.

The report of Standard Chartered "The end of cheap food" refers to the fact that North Africa and the Middle East have already exhausted the reserve stock. These regions imports 71% of its rice and 58% of corn, and water scarcity is not possible to raise productivity. The population is growing very rapidly, fingers crossed, we can say that they will have to focus on imports.

UN says that global productivity in agriculture must grow by 77%, which implies a doubling of the Green Revolution Norman Vorlaga (Norman Borlaug). It will be difficult. Growth of output per unit area in China has decreased from 3,1% a year in early 1960 to 0,9% over the last decade.

"We've all heard terrible stories: precious topsoil is weakened due to agriculture, clouds of dust, covering the Asian skies, burnt the land become deserts, rivers dry up," - says Grice.

Since 2000. China loses almost 1400 sq.. square miles because of the appearance of deserts. The urban fabric is the fertile land in the east. Water from the Himalayan glaciers decline. Yellow River was reduced to "trickle", it no longer reaches the sea 200 days a year.

Farmers draining vodonesuschie layers. Environmentalists Ma Yun (Ma Jun) spoke about the Chinese water crisis and the fact that they have drilled nearly 1000 meters down, to use not reloadable water supplies. Cereal crops Basin Besin depend on 70% of irrigation groundwater.

Water problems in China are not unique. North India also lives at the expense of the Himalayan snows. We can not depend on the fertilizer, as it leads to a "threat of phosphate.

Can be Malthusians in this matter. Gray food guru Jim Rogers (Jim Rogers) is confident that the world is approaching the period when in some parts of the world we can not get a meal or at what price. He advises young people to learn from the farmer, and not to receive MBA, if they want to make serious money.

Grice remains optimistic, believing that human ingenuity will save us. You can use the rally of agricultural commodities, ivestiruya in exchange traded funds (ETF), but it's too over-regulated against speculation on food. There are ancient taboo against the practice.

Or you can invest in biotechnology, fertilizers, and companies that will make money and help solve the problem. Monsanto, Syngenta and Potash - a very popular company, but traded at relatively high prices. Golden Agri-Resources, Yara, Agrium and Bunge - are the best estimates of the coefficients.

Kingsmill Bond at Troika Dialog in Moscow Council of the Baltic company Trigon Agri as a way to earn on this story on the Eurasian expanse. He advises Razguliay grain, and fertilizer producer Uralkali.

Strictly speaking, the world has enough land to feed everyone. In the era of Khrushchev's Soviet Union handled 240 million hectares of land. At the moment, this area is 207 million hectares. Three states that the use of know-how crops can be doubled and trebled in Russia in the Ukraine. African farms can come back to life with the help of land registries, allowing villagers to use their property as collateral for a loan.

None of this can be done at the click of his fingers. What seems indisputable - is the fact that the ratio IMPORT and export prices between countries and cities will return to the norms of the Middle Ages. Landowners will again barons.



The Telegraph
October 25

The index of national activity in the United States overcame the bar recession

According to the report of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the indicator of economic activity in the U.S. rose in September and overcame a critical point, which indicates a recession.
Note that the index of national activity is calculated on the basis of 85 different economic indicators.
The average value of the index of activity for the three-month period from July to September rose to a negative value of -0.63 compared with -0.96 in the previous period, from June to August. For the first time since January 2008, the average value of the index broke the level of -0.70, indicating a recession in the economy.
As noted by the FBI in Chicago, for the last four recessions in the U.S. recession ended around the same time, when the index of national activity exceeded the negative value of -0.70.

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Growth of dollar / yen has slowed down near the level of 92.20

Let's start with the fact that our previous forecast was confirmed at the auctions on Friday the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against the Japanese yen, but the upward movement has slowed down near the 92.20 level and has started a correction, which is still going on ...

USD / JPY



Current price levels are still located above the moving averages with periods of 34, 55, 89 and 144, which is directed upwards and point to the continuing bullish sentiment.

The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, but their attempts to cross the signal line downwards, and thereby generate a signal to sell the dollar / yen.

Stochastic Oscillator out of the overbought zone and has already formed such a signal, since the beginning of the% K line falls below the% D.

Therefore, we expect that the correction will continue and increase, if it is punctured by the level of support 91.30, which could open the way for the bears to the levels of 90.80 and 90.40.

At the same time we must not forget that the aggressive buyers of the dollar / yen can return to the market, if would be punctured 92.20 resistance level.

Levels of resistance: 92.00/10, 92.50, 92.70, 93.00

Current price: 91.76

Support levels: 91.50, 91.00, 90.70, 90.50, 90.20/00

BNY Mellon: the British pound could stabilize near current levels

Recently, analysts Bank of New York Mellon quite confidently declared that the bearish mood of the British pound. But now the bank waiting for stabilization of the currency of Great Britain near current levels. According to the Bank's strategy to further weakening of the pound - this is the last thing the British government wishes. In addition, published on Friday, weak GDP data may be incorrect and, therefore, further expansion of the program of quantitative easing of the Bank of England does not look quite definitely. Nevertheless, bank analysts pay attention to rumors about the revision of the credit rating of the UK, in connection with which there may well be grounds for returning to the bear's prognosis. Now pound / dollar is at 1.6337, euro / pound is trading at around 0.9193.

Corporate reports coming week will support the stock market

S & P500 index is inside a giant "wedge": the resistance trend line is at the level of 1113, support the trend line - in 1058. Reason to worry: the Dow Jones transport index over the last three trading days had fallen by 6%.

The dollar set new lows, rates on 10-year bonds rising. This means that while the market remains optimistic. Our strategy for today "to buy at lower prices, and we still hope to achieve our medium-term goals for S & P500 at 1121.
S & P500 index is inside a giant "wedge": the resistance trend line is at the level of 1113, support the trend line - in 1058. Reason to worry: the Dow Jones transport index over the last three trading days had fallen by 6%.
Week ugotovila a lot of interesting statistics: consumer confidence, orders for durable goods and GDP for the 3 rd quarter in the U.S., not counting the other data.


Saxo Bank

The second week of trading on the dollar / franc did not go far beyond the price range 1.0030-1.0110

Drawing attention to the 4 hours chart, we can see that already the second week of trading on the dollar / franc did not go far beyond the price range of 1.0030-1.0110. Based on what we can conclude that short-term uncertainty of market participants remains

USD/CHF



Current price level is located below the moving averages with periods of 34, 55, 89 and 144, which are directed downward and point to the continuing bearish sentiment.

The MACD histogram is located in the negative zone, above its signal line, continues to slowly increase and thus generates a signal to buy the dollar / franc.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone and gives the opposite message, as the% K line crossed the line% D top-down and start to fall below it.

The contradiction in the signals that feed the indicators as well as the fact that the trades are in the range, leads us to the fact that the most correct decision now - to stay out of the market and wait for the completion of consolidation in the range 1.0030-1.0110.

There are two possible developments:

1. Break of 1.0110 resistance level and the correction to the levels of 1.0170 and 1.0220.

2. Break of 1.0030 support level and the reduction of quotations to the levels of 0.9970 and 0.9930/00.

Resistance levels: 1.0090, 1.0120, 1.0150, 1.0170, 1.0200/20

Current Price: 1.0058

Support levels: 1.0050, 1.0030, 1.0000, 0.9970, 0.9950, 0.9930/00

GfK consumer confidence index in Germany fell for the first time since September 2008

Outrunning GfK index of consumer confidence in Germany is 4.0 points for November, compared with 4.2 points in the previous month. Rate decreased while the forecast increase to 4.5 points. After growth for four consecutive months, the index of expectations about income fell by 3.1 points to 12.9 points. Note that the annualized rate increased by 26 points.
The index of economic expectations, in contrast, rose by 5 basis points to 8.7 points. Disposition to purchase index fell sharply by 10 basis points to 26.1 points.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Indicator of business conditions in Germany Ifo increases eighth consecutive month

Indicator of business conditions in Germany, produced by the German Ifo Institute for Economic and reflecting the perspectives of development of German and European economies, amounted to 91.9 points in October compared to 91.3 points in the previous month. However analysts predicted that figure will increase to 92.1 points.
Index assessment of current conditions Ifo was 87.3 points in October compared to 87.1 points in September. The index of business expectations rose during the reporting period from 95.7 points to 96.8 points.
Note that the index Ifo, calculated on the basis of the survey 7 000 enterprises in manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail trade shows strong growth for eight consecutive months.

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On Balance Volume (OBV) MT4 Indicator


On Balance Volume Technical Indicator (OBV) is a momentum technical indicator that relates volume to price change. The indicator, which Joseph Granville came up with, is pretty simple. When the security closes higher than the previous close, all of the day’s volume is considered up-volume. When the security closes lower than the previous close, all of the day’s volume is considered down-volume.

The basic assumption, regarding On Balance Volume analysis, is that OBV changes precede price changes. The theory is that smart money can be seen flowing into the security by a rising OBV. When the public then moves into the security, both the security and the On Balance Volume will surge ahead.

If the security’s price movement precedes OBV movement, a "non-confirmation" has occurred. Non-confirmations can occur at bull market tops (when the security rises without, or before, the OBV) or at bear market bottoms (when the security falls without, or before, the On Balance Volume Technical Indicator).

The OBV is in a rising trend when each new peak is higher than the previous peak and each new trough is higher than the previous trough. Likewise, the On Balance Volume is in a falling trend when each successive peak is lower than the previous peak and each successive trough is lower than the previous trough. When the OBV is moving sideways and is not making successive highs and lows, it is in a doubtful trend.

Once a trend is established, it remains in force until it is broken. There are two ways in which the On Balance Volume trend can be broken. The first occurs when the trend changes from a rising trend to a falling trend, or from a falling trend to a rising trend.

The second way the OBV trend can be broken is if the trend changes to a doubtful trend and remains doubtful for more than three days. Thus, if the security changes from a rising trend to a doubtful trend and remains doubtful for only two days before changing back to a rising trend, the On Balance Volume is considered to have always been in a rising trend.

When the OBV changes to a rising or falling trend, a "breakout" has occurred. Since OBV breakouts normally precede price breakouts, investors should buy long on On Balance Volume upside breakouts. Likewise, investors should sell short when the OBV makes a downside breakout. Positions should be held until the trend changes.

Calculation

If today’s close is greater than yesterday’s close then:

OBV(i) = OBV(i-1)+VOLUME(i)

If today’s close is less than yesterday’s close then:

OBV(i) = OBV(i-1)-VOLUME(i)

If today’s close is equal to yesterday’s close then:

OBV(i) = OBV(i-1)

Where:
OBV(i) — is the indicator value of the current period;
OBV(i-1) — is the indicator value of the previous period;
VOLUME(i) — is the volume of the current bar.



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Morgan Stanley predicts the strengthening of the Swiss franc

According to currency analysts Morgan Stanley, by the end of the Swiss franc could strengthen to a mark of 1.50 against the euro (compared to before. Forecast 1.54), as well as economic recovery and higher inflation leads central bank to stop selling the currency. As noted in the bank, some central banks began to tighten monetary policy, while others have begun to reduce the amount of anti-crisis program - against the background of these circumstances, market participants would react with great attention to the question whether the Swiss National Bank to change the selected course of monetary policy. The bank believes that this will happen as soon as eliminating the need for its conservation. At Morgan Stanley believes that, given the emergence of an increasing signs of economic recovery, both global and domestic foreign exchange intervention policy is increasingly irrelevant. By the end of March, analysts predict a rise in bank franc to a level of 1.48 (compared with before. Prognosis 1.55). Currently, the euro / franc traded at 1.5119.

Mizuho expects weakening the Japanese currency

The Japanese yen fell to a two-month low against the single European currency against the backdrop of growth in the stock markets, triggered by good data on the earnings of the companies - this is yet another sign of reviving the global economy boosted demand for higher-yielding currencies. As the currency analysts Mizuho, interest risk, in general, increases, and this is the explanation for weakening the Japanese currency. In a situation of increasing "risk appetite", subject to the overall growth in the commodity and stock markets, the yen will remain under pressure. The Bank believes that the end of 2009 the Japanese currency against the dollar may fall to the level of 95.0, against the European currency, bank analysts predict the trade in the range 135.0 - 138.0. Euro / yen is currently traded at 137.97, the dollar / yen is at around 91.91.

The Chinese disengagement

Representatives of the financial community tend to follow set of rules. When Fed chairman Ben Bernarke (Ben Bernanke) said about Asia, global imbalances and financial crisis, he did not directly criticize outrageous monetary policy in China.

But he never had: and all so read between the lines. Defiance of China poses a growing threat to the world economy. The only question now is how will react to this world and the United States in particular.

Here are some prerequisites: the value of currency in China, in contrast to, say, the British pound, is not determined by supply and demand. Instead, the Chinese government set the target rate by buying and selling their currencies on the foreign exchange market. Such a policy is possible due to a restriction on private investors to move funds within the country and beyond.

There is nothing wrong with such policies, especially given the fact that it is still a very poor country, the financial system which can easily be destabilized by volatile flows of "hot money". Indeed, such a system was very useful to China during the Asian financial crisis of the late 90s. The key question now is whether the target value of the yuan is reasonable.

Until about 2001 it was possible to argue that the price was reasonable: China's overall trade position was not too far from equilibrium. Since that time, however, the policy peg pairs yuan / dollar is becoming more and more bizarre. First of all, the dollar is declining, especially on the Euro, therefore, maintaining a fixed rate of the yuan / dollar, the Chinese officials, in fact, engaged in the devaluation of national currency in relation to all others. Meanwhile, increased productivity in the export industries of China, coupled with the actual devaluation has made it extremely cheap Chinese goods on world markets.

The result was a huge surplus in trade balance. If demand and supply was allowed to play a crucial role - it would have dramatically increased the value of Chinese currency. But Chinese authorities did not allow such a development. They kept the cost low by selling large amounts of currency, instead of acquiring huge holdings of foreign assets, mostly in dollars, at present, velchichina assets of approximately $ 2.1 trillion.

Many economists, including myself, believe that the consumer boom has helped inflate asset bubble in the housing sector, creating conditions for the global financial crisis. However, China still insists on maintaining a pair of yuan / dollar at a fixed level, even though the dollar is falling, which could cause even more harm to the present.

Although it was a lot of thinking about the sinking dollar, nevertheless, this reduction is actually a natural and desirable. The U.S. needs a weaker dollar to help reduce the trade deficit, and it turns out that the weak dollar as jittery investors, who were drawn to a safe U.S. government debt at the peak of the crisis, but has already begun to invest their money in other places.

But China kept its currency pegged to the dollar. This means that a country with a huge trade surplus and rapidly recovering economies in countries whose currency should rise in value, in fact, engaged in the devaluation.

This is particularly bad at the moment when the world economy remains deeply depressed because of inadequate aggregate demand. Continuing a policy of weak currencies, China grab part of the inadequacy of demand from other countries, which are detrimental to growth everywhere. The most affected are likely to work in other poor countries. In normal times I would have been one of the first who denied the allegation that China is stealing other people's work, but now it is a simple truth.

So what are we going to do?

American officials have been extremely careful about the problems associated with China, to such an extent that last week the Finance Ministry, expressing "concern" and speaking before Congress, announced that Cathay is NOT manipulating its currency. They're joking, right?

The fact is that at the moment this political correctness is irrelevant. Assume that the Chinese have begun to do what so afraid of Wall Street and Washington: began to sell part of their dollar reserves. In the present circumstances it may even help the U.S. economy, because such actions will make our exports more competitive.

The fact that some countries, especially Switzerland, tried to bolster their economies by selling their currency to the currency markets. United States, mainly for diplomatic reasons, can not do this, but if China decides to do so on our behalf, we will send them a thank you letter.

The fact that the world economy is still in a difficult position, policy toward "beggar-thy-neighbor" is not acceptable major players. But something must be done with the Chinese currency.


The New York Times
October 23