According to currency analysts UniCredit, while risky assets will be in demand, the likelihood of further reduction of a pair of dollar / Canada will continue. The bank noted that the recent decline in dollar / Canada has been significant, however, in the current environment, as only a couple make a confident break of support level at 1.04, the focus will once again be region 1.03 - 1.02. At the moment pair dollar / Canada is trading at around 1.0505.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Scotia Capital: the weakening of the Canadian dollar - just a correction
Canadian dollar today fell against the U.S. currency to a mark 1.0550 against the backdrop of an overall strengthening of the dollar. As a result, reduce the Canadian currency has lost a few points accumulated since the beginning of the week. As the analysts Scotia Capital, earlier this week the Canadian dollar strenuously making up for lost time, since the growth of the Canadian currency came later than other commodity currencies. In addition, the strengthening Canadian dollar contributed to a slight reduction in spread between U.S. and Canadian two-year bonds, as well as the general negative sentiment against the U.S. currency. However, pay attention to the bank's strategy, given that many factors indicate a lack of support for this growth, today's upward movement is likely to be regarded as rehabilitative in anticipation of the momentum that will provide dollar / Canada, a further reduction. At the moment pair dollar / Canada is trading at 1.0520.
No increase in employment - Recovery is L-shaped
A year ago we experienced the effect of the worst financial crisis in a century. Its scale was greater than the collapse of 1929, mainly due to the global nature. Testimony after analysis of recent crashes around the world talking about the long-term consequences.
The question is, when it will end. Answer: not soon, it concerns both the U.S. and Europe. Banks still do not make loans, and if the issue - they are very difficult to obtain. Deflation remains a concern in many countries.
Central banks are very concerned that they do not know how to deal with hyper-deflation. They are trying to achieve inflation, because they know what to do with it. I think we achieved what John Maynard Keynes called "semi-long decline, following the acute phase of the cycle, which we passed over the last year or so.
The biggest mistake the current policy would be to get rid of incentives too early. This can lead to a W-shape or L-shaped recovery, provided that the private sector, it seems, is not in the best condition. Should take into account the experience of events in the United States in 1937, when it was believed that the recession came to an end and monetary policy tightening, which led to a spiral of economic decline.
Consequences of the financial crisis primarily affected the U.S. housing market: housing prices began falling in late 2006. Unemployment started to rise since mid-2007, and then began employment decline since December 2007, which the National Bureau of Economic Research and identified as the beginning of a recession. The economy did not decrease until the second quarter of 2008.
At the other end of the Atlantic
This was also the beginning of the period of recession in the UK and the European Union, either the unemployment or output. Financial pandemic spread across the Atlantic.
Evidence of growth could be something that makes the labor market to grow, not fall, so this indicator can be correlated with a recession. Going forward, I am looking for any early signs of recovery in the labor market in the U.S., but at the moment, they exist just a few. In the recovery driven by the growth of housing construction, for example, you can see an increase in employment of construction workers. I am looking for growth in employment, which appeared at least several industries.
Last week the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest data, which suggests that the unemployment rate rose to 10,2% in October from 9.8% in September and 6.6% compared to last year. Some commentators have consoled myself with the thought of slowing the pace of reducing the number of jobs in non-agricultural sector, which fell to 190,000 per month.
An even greater reduction
These data were obtained after the research enterprise, but, according to alternative estimates of employment, based on household data, the decline was much greater. Based on the data eih, employment fell by 590,000 per month, and nearly 1.4 million during the past three months. Over the past 12 months, employment has decreased by 5.5 million posts and 6.4 million, relying on data on households.
The reason for the difference in the data is that the household survey has a broader scope because it includes self-employed, unpaid family workers, agricultural workers and employees of private households, which are included in this study.
Market exclusion nannies, handymen, gardeners, and can greatly affect the data. There is not much evidence to suggest the development in this area. In health, the only sign of life observed in the growing temporary help services, which, in essence, is the beginning. Construction and manufacturing are most affected by the crisis. In these industries, there are no signs of recovery.
Wealth, as the stabilization
There are also signs of recovery in the labor market in Europe, not related to government incentives. Social security systems operate in many countries as an automatic stabilizer that prevents falling incomes. Subsidies for part-time workers in Germany and the Netherlands, for example, helped to keep unemployment low. Even with that decline in production was approximately 5% from the peak, the Dutch have been highly successful in minimizing the impact on the labor market.
At the moment, their unemployment rate remains at 3.6% compared with the mean data from 27 EU countries, who say the unemployment rate at 9.2%. However, there is only little evidence that in many countries of the EU creates a significant number of jobs in the private sector.
Program "cash for trash" minimized. Temporary tax cuts will be returned at the end of the year in the UK. Moreover, firms in the euro zone has not yet experienced the full impact of currency appreciation.
Unemployment continues to rise in major EU countries. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted that unemployment will exceed 10% in Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain and Sweden in 2010.
Keynes' biographer, Lord Robert Skidelsky, argues in his new book, "Keynes: The Return of the Master" (Public Affairs, 2009) that the objective of macroeconomic policy is a quasi-boom "to enable people to live" wisely and well pleased. "
We definitely do not live.
David Blanchflower - a former member of the Committee of the Bank of England's monetary policy, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and the University of Stirling.
The question is, when it will end. Answer: not soon, it concerns both the U.S. and Europe. Banks still do not make loans, and if the issue - they are very difficult to obtain. Deflation remains a concern in many countries.
Central banks are very concerned that they do not know how to deal with hyper-deflation. They are trying to achieve inflation, because they know what to do with it. I think we achieved what John Maynard Keynes called "semi-long decline, following the acute phase of the cycle, which we passed over the last year or so.
The biggest mistake the current policy would be to get rid of incentives too early. This can lead to a W-shape or L-shaped recovery, provided that the private sector, it seems, is not in the best condition. Should take into account the experience of events in the United States in 1937, when it was believed that the recession came to an end and monetary policy tightening, which led to a spiral of economic decline.
Consequences of the financial crisis primarily affected the U.S. housing market: housing prices began falling in late 2006. Unemployment started to rise since mid-2007, and then began employment decline since December 2007, which the National Bureau of Economic Research and identified as the beginning of a recession. The economy did not decrease until the second quarter of 2008.
At the other end of the Atlantic
This was also the beginning of the period of recession in the UK and the European Union, either the unemployment or output. Financial pandemic spread across the Atlantic.
Evidence of growth could be something that makes the labor market to grow, not fall, so this indicator can be correlated with a recession. Going forward, I am looking for any early signs of recovery in the labor market in the U.S., but at the moment, they exist just a few. In the recovery driven by the growth of housing construction, for example, you can see an increase in employment of construction workers. I am looking for growth in employment, which appeared at least several industries.
Last week the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest data, which suggests that the unemployment rate rose to 10,2% in October from 9.8% in September and 6.6% compared to last year. Some commentators have consoled myself with the thought of slowing the pace of reducing the number of jobs in non-agricultural sector, which fell to 190,000 per month.
An even greater reduction
These data were obtained after the research enterprise, but, according to alternative estimates of employment, based on household data, the decline was much greater. Based on the data eih, employment fell by 590,000 per month, and nearly 1.4 million during the past three months. Over the past 12 months, employment has decreased by 5.5 million posts and 6.4 million, relying on data on households.
The reason for the difference in the data is that the household survey has a broader scope because it includes self-employed, unpaid family workers, agricultural workers and employees of private households, which are included in this study.
Market exclusion nannies, handymen, gardeners, and can greatly affect the data. There is not much evidence to suggest the development in this area. In health, the only sign of life observed in the growing temporary help services, which, in essence, is the beginning. Construction and manufacturing are most affected by the crisis. In these industries, there are no signs of recovery.
Wealth, as the stabilization
There are also signs of recovery in the labor market in Europe, not related to government incentives. Social security systems operate in many countries as an automatic stabilizer that prevents falling incomes. Subsidies for part-time workers in Germany and the Netherlands, for example, helped to keep unemployment low. Even with that decline in production was approximately 5% from the peak, the Dutch have been highly successful in minimizing the impact on the labor market.
At the moment, their unemployment rate remains at 3.6% compared with the mean data from 27 EU countries, who say the unemployment rate at 9.2%. However, there is only little evidence that in many countries of the EU creates a significant number of jobs in the private sector.
Program "cash for trash" minimized. Temporary tax cuts will be returned at the end of the year in the UK. Moreover, firms in the euro zone has not yet experienced the full impact of currency appreciation.
Unemployment continues to rise in major EU countries. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicted that unemployment will exceed 10% in Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain and Sweden in 2010.
Keynes' biographer, Lord Robert Skidelsky, argues in his new book, "Keynes: The Return of the Master" (Public Affairs, 2009) that the objective of macroeconomic policy is a quasi-boom "to enable people to live" wisely and well pleased. "
We definitely do not live.
David Blanchflower - a former member of the Committee of the Bank of England's monetary policy, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and the University of Stirling.
David Blanchflower
Bloomberg
November 10
Bloomberg
November 10
Eurozone industrial production continued to grow moderately
Eurozone industrial production index for September rose by 0,3% in monthly terms, said the EU statistical agency Eurostat. Value was below the level projected by most analysts (0.5%). Nevertheless, the August index value revised upward - from 1.1% to 1.2%.
In annual terms, the euro-zone industrial output fell in September to 12,9%, compared with -15.1% in the previous month and the forecast of -14.1%. Note that the index continuously improved during the five months, after falling to -21.3% in April this year.
In annual terms, the euro-zone industrial output fell in September to 12,9%, compared with -15.1% in the previous month and the forecast of -14.1%. Note that the index continuously improved during the five months, after falling to -21.3% in April this year.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
UBS: the forecast for the dollar remains negative
As the currency analysts UBS, U.S. dollar sentiment remains bearish. The bank believes that the upward movement of the euro / dollar may suspend approach to peak this year at 1.5063, but his breakthrough would lead to an increase in couples to the 76.4% correction at 1.5163, support is at around 1.4811. In tandem with the Japanese currency the dollar is trading closer to a minimum 89.20 and 88.84 (minimum 15 and 14 October). In addition, note in the bank, the pair is significantly below the recent high of 91.32. Now, the euro / dollar traded at 1.4974, the dollar / yen is at around 89.90.
Bank of England predicts slow recovery
Bank of England expects the gradual recovery of the national economy, drew attention to the need for control of bank assets, and predicts that the government would be obliged to balance the state budget in the coming years.
In addition, published today in the quarterly report on inflation projected increase in inflation, which in the short term will have to exceed the targeted level of 2%. Consumer prices will cause a temporary increase in VAT. Later, however, will naturally roll back prices.
The report also states that the depreciation of the pound sterling, which fell against the currency basket against the backdrop of recession, "will have a positive impact on the restoration of the UK economy."
According to the Bank of England, a weak national currency impact on reducing the volume of imports and help to overcome the fallen domestic demand. At the same time, a weak pound will benefit UK exporters in the world market.
In addition, published today in the quarterly report on inflation projected increase in inflation, which in the short term will have to exceed the targeted level of 2%. Consumer prices will cause a temporary increase in VAT. Later, however, will naturally roll back prices.
The report also states that the depreciation of the pound sterling, which fell against the currency basket against the backdrop of recession, "will have a positive impact on the restoration of the UK economy."
According to the Bank of England, a weak national currency impact on reducing the volume of imports and help to overcome the fallen domestic demand. At the same time, a weak pound will benefit UK exporters in the world market.
The Increase in the number of unemployed in the UK has slowed considerably in October
The number of British citizens who applied for unemployment insurance rose in October to 12.9 thousand to 1.64 million. This is a record low growth in this indicator since April 2008. At the same time, the whole figure is at the highest level since April 1997.
Experts expect an increase in the number of applications for unemployment insurance for 20 thousand.
Unemployment in Britain rose in the third quarter on 0,1% to 7,8%.
Average earnings rose in the third quarter of 1,8% compared to the same period last year.
Experts expect an increase in the number of applications for unemployment insurance for 20 thousand.
Unemployment in Britain rose in the third quarter on 0,1% to 7,8%.
Average earnings rose in the third quarter of 1,8% compared to the same period last year.
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