Euro / pound on Tuesday fell below the trend line, which runs at the level of 0.9090, and, according to currency analysts Barclays Capital, this is the first sign of fading uptrend pair of minima in the region of 0.8833. The bank believes that a break below 0.9050 would signal the end of growth in euro / pound. In this case, the pair could again fall to a mark of 0.89. Currently, the euro / pound is trading at 0.9055.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
PMI index for manufacturing areas of Britain unexpectedly fell in November
Business activity in the industrial area of Britain has deteriorated in November, against the backdrop of demand, reducing the procurement of materials and the volume of orders.
Index PMI, reflects the dynamics of business activity, economic conditions and prospects of development of the productive sector, for November was 51.8 points compared with 53,4 points in the previous month. Thus analysts predicted rise in the index up 54.1 points.
Recall that the indicator value above 50 points indicates growth of business activity in the industrial sphere, below the 50 - to slow down.
Index PMI, reflects the dynamics of business activity, economic conditions and prospects of development of the productive sector, for November was 51.8 points compared with 53,4 points in the previous month. Thus analysts predicted rise in the index up 54.1 points.
Recall that the indicator value above 50 points indicates growth of business activity in the industrial sphere, below the 50 - to slow down.
Unemployment in the euro zone 9.8% in October
Taking into account seasonal factors, unemployment in the euro area amounted to 9,8% in October this year, said the EU statistical agency Eurostat. Indicator corresponds to analysts' forecasts. Previous value of the index revised by 9,7% to 9,8%.
The total number of unemployed in the euro zone rose in September to 134 000 in monthly terms and amounted to 15.567 million. On an annual basis the total number of unemployed increased by 3,149 million.
The total number of unemployed in the euro zone rose in September to 134 000 in monthly terms and amounted to 15.567 million. On an annual basis the total number of unemployed increased by 3,149 million.
Investors are willing to continue the game in the carry-trade
Returning after the holidays and after recovering from the massive sale late last week, traders seem determined to re-sell the dollar. "The readiness of the UAE central bank to support the Dubai investors should inspire optimism and confidence that the crisis did not spread beyond the emirate," - said in today's letter to customers, Roberto Mialich, currency strategist at UniCredit in Milan. - "The volatility of the stock market, of course, continue to influence exchange rates, however, in general, the dollar will resume dauntrend. "The tendency to escape from the risk of weakening in the last couple of days, the world economy continues to recover, and the situation in Dubai, is unlikely to become a problem for credit markets" - agrees Minoru Shioiri, head of FX-commerce Mitsubishi UFJ Securities in Tokyo. - "Investors will continue to exchange dollars for more lucrative currencies.
Citigroup: the rate increase does not guarantee AUD growth
Analysts said Citigroup, the RBA raised the discount rate in line with expectations, however, this does not mean that the Australian dollar will rush up, sweeping away everything in its path. In contrast, confidence in the bank, investors will be cautious, opening long positions in AUD. "Markets are underestimating the potential for further policy tightening, however, the exchange rate is still significantly faster than a 2-year differential in rates between Australia and countries B9.
Morgan Stanley: Dubai World will not help the dollar
According to analysts of Morgan Stanley, the dollar will not be able to significantly strengthen its position against the anti-risk sentiment caused by concerns about debt restructuring Dubai World. "We do not consider these events as systemic risks", - noted in the bank. Thus, the dollar will not get support. In contrast, other currencies with a low beta, such as the yen, Swiss franc and euro even able to extract more benefits from the situation. "More than others in these circumstances, the downside risks to currencies with high beta and weakened fundamentals, such as the New Zealand dollar. Not in the best position of the U.S. dollar and the pound."
UAE push to head off debts damage
In the resurrection of the UAE made in defense of their banks in order to prevent any potential capital outflows. Thus, national, federal authorities are trying to resist the debt problems of Dubai.
Central Bank of UAE has created additional lines of liquidity injection to ease fears about the banking system, but investors are worried because of the short-term impact on local markets, as regional traders felt that the cause of global sale was reported that one of the flagship sites of Dubai - "Dubai World" requests the postponement of the creditors until May.
Because of the Muslim holiday of stock markets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi opened only on Monday after the shocking statements by Dubai World, which was made on Wednesday. Some players predicted a market of Dubai and Abu Dhabi fall to record low levels because of the likely impact on the banking system.
UAE Central Bank announced its readiness to provide creditors access to additional liquidity and that the UAE is committed to support banks and branches of foreign groups. "The Central Bank says that UAE's banking system is strong and provide liquidity, even more than a year ago," - said in a government response.
Meanwhile, Dubai World is prepared to persuade the owners of bonds to refinance Nakheel timing of payments, while the government will compensate for losses due to inactivity officials belittled the problem of failure to respond to Dubai's debt, which reached a high of $ 80 billion
UAE authorities have been negotiating with officials in Dubai at the weekend to formulate a response to the fears of investors and reduce the damage to the UAE economy.
Nakheel has to pay $ 4 billion of Islamic bonds in the next month, while the total debt of the parent company amounts to $ 59 billion
Bankers expect intervention from Abu Dhabi, which is funding its massive capital CB and plays a key role in the financial prosperity of Dubai. However, Abu Dhabi has always maintained that such issues should be addressed at the federal level.
Abu Dhabi officials also said that while they provide all the seven Emirates, they are not discharged Dubai blank check.
The reaction of CB was mixed.
Economist, Standard Chartered, Marios Marafeftis (Marios Maratheftis) said that he sees positive dynamics in the fact that the Central Bank sends signals to the rest of the banks and the world that he would support banks.
The banking analyst at EFG-HERMES Madhu Raj (Raj Madha) welcomes this step, but also said that the Central Bank will have to do much more.
Central Bank of UAE has created additional lines of liquidity injection to ease fears about the banking system, but investors are worried because of the short-term impact on local markets, as regional traders felt that the cause of global sale was reported that one of the flagship sites of Dubai - "Dubai World" requests the postponement of the creditors until May.
Because of the Muslim holiday of stock markets in Dubai and Abu Dhabi opened only on Monday after the shocking statements by Dubai World, which was made on Wednesday. Some players predicted a market of Dubai and Abu Dhabi fall to record low levels because of the likely impact on the banking system.
UAE Central Bank announced its readiness to provide creditors access to additional liquidity and that the UAE is committed to support banks and branches of foreign groups. "The Central Bank says that UAE's banking system is strong and provide liquidity, even more than a year ago," - said in a government response.
Meanwhile, Dubai World is prepared to persuade the owners of bonds to refinance Nakheel timing of payments, while the government will compensate for losses due to inactivity officials belittled the problem of failure to respond to Dubai's debt, which reached a high of $ 80 billion
UAE authorities have been negotiating with officials in Dubai at the weekend to formulate a response to the fears of investors and reduce the damage to the UAE economy.
Nakheel has to pay $ 4 billion of Islamic bonds in the next month, while the total debt of the parent company amounts to $ 59 billion
Bankers expect intervention from Abu Dhabi, which is funding its massive capital CB and plays a key role in the financial prosperity of Dubai. However, Abu Dhabi has always maintained that such issues should be addressed at the federal level.
Abu Dhabi officials also said that while they provide all the seven Emirates, they are not discharged Dubai blank check.
The reaction of CB was mixed.
Economist, Standard Chartered, Marios Marafeftis (Marios Maratheftis) said that he sees positive dynamics in the fact that the Central Bank sends signals to the rest of the banks and the world that he would support banks.
The banking analyst at EFG-HERMES Madhu Raj (Raj Madha) welcomes this step, but also said that the Central Bank will have to do much more.
The Financial Times
November 30
November 30
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