Indicator based off of Tom DeMarks' TD Sequential indicator as described in Jason Perl's book "DeMark Indicators"
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TD Sequential.mq4
Monday, April 19, 2010
The volume of transactions with foreign securities in Canada, below forecasts for February
The volume of transactions with foreign securities in Canada amounted to 6,72 billion dollars in February, according to the Statistical Office of the country. A month earlier figure was 11.84 billion dollars, and in February projected decline to 8.95 billion dollars.
At the same time, the volume of purchases of foreign securities of Canadian investors totaled 3.9 billion dollars in February, the maximum outflow from March 2009.
Goldman can expect a thorough inspection in Britain and Germany after the court
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Britain faces a "reconnaissance" of regulatory bodies and candid attention from the German government after the Commission on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) passed in the U.S. court case against the company for fraud in connection collateralized debt obligations.
Politicians who were forced to rescue its banks during the financial crisis, turning their attention to Goldman, knowing the contribution of the company in turmoil in financial markets and manipulation in order to pay. The EU also explores the role of Goldman in the creation of swaps for Greece, which could mask the deficit country.
"It looks as if people were misled," - said Gordon Brown.
The Commission on the Securities and Exchange Commission also said that Goldman misled investors IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG about the role of Paulson in trade.
IKB became the first victim of Germany's subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. in 2007 after their investments and securities were impaired.
"The German Government will ask the Commission for additional information, and when we get the data, then consider possible legal action" - said Ulrich Wilhelm (Ulrich Wilhelm), spokesman for Merkel.
At Goldman Sachs warned that "provided detailed information" IKB about possible risks associated with mortgage-backed securities.
Bloomberg
Dollar Hits 3-Week Low Vs Yen On Financial Sector Concerns
The dollar struck a three-week minimum against the yen due to the sale of hedge funds, as many fear that the charges against Goldman Sachs charges may affect the ordinary shares and American interest rates this week.
The dollar may fall further against the yen in the coming days, if the fall campaign will go down on growing fears that U.S. regulators may extend the "feeling out" financial institutions - dealers said.
In early Asian trading week the dollar fell to 91.83 yen, its lowest level since March 25.
While perhaps the majority of companies involved in small business, the amount will report better-than-expected profits, many well-known names did not meet expectations "- said David Forrester (David Forrester), currency analyst at Barclays Capital. It can also drag a higher yield, riskier currencies like the euro, lower against the yen - the analyst said.
At the same time, there are rumors that the Chinese government may soon allow the yuan to rise against the dollar, which could become an additional stimklom for investors to sell dollars in favor of the yen, -, dealers said.
360.000 unemployed Portugal in anticipation of the March benefits
According to the Ministry of Labour of Portugal, a computer crash led to delays in processing benefits.
Most of the unemployed receive benefits in March with the delays, this situation affects approximately 360.000 people.
"It is obvious that the main problem is the deteriorating quality of service," - said Maria do Carmo Tavares (Maria do Carmo Tavares), who works in the executive committee of the labor unions.
According to the Ministry of Labour, the delay in the payment of benefits touched 360.000 beneficiaries, ie 64.17% of the total number of registered unemployed at employment offices. According to the latest data available at the Office of Employment and Vocational Training, in February of the country were registered 561,315 unemployed people.
Helen Andre (Helena André) of the Employment Service, said unemployment benefits have no clear time frame in which they will be paid.
For Maria do Carmo Tavarez is like the situation is totally unacceptable, because people are rigidly fixed income and they want to survive. Trade union leader believes that government policy in the sphere of administrative activity "was overwhelming", which is why many workers have resigned immediately, even knowing that their benefits would amount to 25%, 30% or 40% of income. Health, education and welfare, according to a trade union leader, will feel the greatest impact.
TD Securities believes the weakening Canadian dollar temporary
Canadian dollar weakens against the common desire to escape from risk, which is dominated by the global financial markets in light of allegations of fraud against a U.S. bank Goldman Sachs. As noted by analysts TD Securities, the mood on the stock markets remains negative, the U.S. futures are also in negative territory, forcing the Canadian currency to stay on the defensive. The Bank recall that last week the Canadian dollar has shown the worst performance among the major currencies. However, the bank's strategists believed that the current weakening of the currency of Canada is merely short-term consolidation in the overall bull trend. The bank believes that today the pair dollar / Canada is unlikely to go beyond the range, limited levels of 1.0130 and 1.0216. Currently pair dollar / Canada is at around 1.0175.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Saturday, April 10, 2010
Employment in Canada rose in March
Employment in Canada rose in March at 18 thousand should be noted that the growth rate has remained stable since July 2009.
Thus, in July last year, employment in Canada increased by 176 thousand, or 1.1%.
Nevertheless, the unemployment rate in Canada remained unchanged - 8,2%.
Average hourly earnings rose by 2,2% compared to the same period last year.
Bundesbank attacks Greek rescue as a threat to stability
German Bundesbank fired a warning shot to the side of Chancellor Angela Merkel (Angela Merkel), boycotting the joint plan of EU-IMF to rescue Greece, considering that this plan will undermine the economic stability, and probably illegal.
Ultra-hawk Axel Weber (Axel Weber), who heads the Bundesbank, said the decision to connect to the IMF could make matters worse by arguing that the EU can apply more stringent fiscal discipline. Photo: Reuters
Yield of two-year Greek bonds rose by 136 basis points in early trading to 8.3% from 5.2% last week. Later, the market has stabilized, when Athens declared a 40% reduction of budget deficit during the first quarter, suggesting that conservation measures are yielding results.
The document contains the Bundesbank diatribe agreement, approved by European leaders two weeks ago, it says that the joint plan was adopted without consultation with central banks and is the monetization of debt. "This agreement will lead to destabilization of the economy, like that should not be underestimated."
According Rundschau, a joint rescue operation between the IMF and the EU will turn the Bundesbank in the "press" for the purchase of Greek bonds. Such actions violate the European principle of "no salvation".
Hans Redeker (Hans Redeker), head of foreign exchange division at BNP Paribas, said that the report greatly strengthens the tone of criticism of the European Monetary Union in Germany. With professors already going to file a complaint with the Constitutional Court in order to stop the plan to rescue Greece. "Such actions severely limit its room for maneuver Merkel" - he said.
Ultra-hawk Axel Weber (Axel Weber), who heads the Bundesbank, said that the decision to connect to the IMF could make matters worse, arguing that the EU would be applied to more stringent fiscal discipline.
In the report acronym IMF (IMF) ironically painted as "Inflation Maximising Fund" (maximizes Inflation Fund), stating that the foundation fund "softened" under pressure Dominique Strauss-Kahn (Dominique Strauss-Kahn), French socialist and Keynesian. These actions shift the focus from the "fiscal cleansing" to the "growth-oriented" financial policy. Selection for such purposes reserves the Bundesbank can not be justified "- the report said.
At least, Mrs. Merkel will be extremely problematic to weaken its insistence on "market rates" on any loans for Greece. The officials spoke about the numbers that are close to 6%, to avoid moral hazard, but it angered Greece. She hopes to hold below 4.5%, as Portugal or Ireland. The representative of the Greek government said yesterday that his country had imposed "barbaric conditions" (barbarous conditions).
Jean-Claude Trichet (Jean-Claude Trichet), ECB president, minimized the rift between Berlin and Brussels, saying that the EU's assistance to Greece was "very, very serious undertaking, and nobody should be windy relate to the statement signed by the Heads of State" .
"Taking into account all the information that I have, I believe that Greece is not considered a default," - he said after the meeting of the Board of Governors. The Bank left interest rates at record low level of 1%.
Lourent Bilko (Laurent Bilke), European economist at Nomura and a former official of the ECB, said that Greece is actually located outside the market. "We believe a more likely course of events, which will force Greece to change the strategy and ask for help. In fact, there are no prerequisites to wait for "accident".
At Barclays Capital say that to restore confidence and funding needs, Greece should be at least 40-45 billion euros, which will help buy time for reform.
As expected, the ECB has postponed plans to tighten collateral rules, thereby eliminating the risk of loss of Greek banks vital security from Frankfurt for another year. In the analysis IOBE said that funding ECB Greek banks in the first quarter rose to 65 billion euros. The ECB will impose fines for "fat" on the lower classes of shares, but it will not address sovereign debt. This is an atypical aid Greece, Italy and other major debtors.
Jean-Claude Trichet President European Central Bank, to change the subject of the ongoing rift between Berlin and Brussels. Photo: Bloomberg
Kellow Julian (Julian Callow) from Barclays said that the sharp fluctuations in the Greek mask, and the good news: "contagion" has not spread to central Europe and Ireland. "Greece is now regarded as an isolated incident, since it came to a crisis with already very high debt. Ireland managed to avoid, despite how much it cost the banking sector ", - he said.
In any case, the euro looks much stronger after the events of the last two weeks. Analysts say that for the Greek default there are serious reasons, and if it happened, that in itself would have been losses for the currency union.
The Telegraph
Friday, April 9, 2010
Gann Levels MT4 Indicator
Determination of support and resistance levels
Calculation of target prices for the support and resistance is a very simple task.
Square of Nine is such that the numbers are simple square root relationship to other numbers on the circle. Calculations of the root, you can put a starting point the opening day to see the geometric relationships. Just put a line of 0 °, so that she was on the study costs. For example, if the market was opening day at 1.33365.
Now we can quickly compute the other numbers that are squares (90 ° and 270 °), triads (120 ° and 240 °), polukvadratami (45 °, 315 °), sextile (60 ° and 330 °), etc. These "pressure points" can be mathematically calculated using simple addition or subtraction from the square root of price. Calculate what the geometric relationships are as square root of the increment, we simply divide the number by 180, as will be discussed further. The numbers of such calculations are more important as levels of support or resistance.
45 ° = 45/180 = 0,25 225 ° = 225/180 = 1,25
60 ° = 60/180 = 0,333 240 ° = 240/180 = 1,333
90 ° = 90/180 = 0,5 270 ° = 270/180 = 1,50
120 ° = 120/180 = 0,666 300 ° = 300/180 = 1,666
135 ° = 135/180 = 0,75 315 ° = 315/180 = 1,75
180 ° = 180/180 = 1,0 360 ° = 360/180 = 2,0
Taking our example of 1.33365, we first would consider that price as the number 133365, when we move the comma on prices, making all the prices, or three-or four-five-digit integers. We simply calculate the square root of 133,365, and add the increment, above, to this number and squaring.
We have to determine the levels of resistance. The same calculation would be correct if we would have had him with bringing up a third sign, because is calculated by the square of the Nine.
Thus is the price or circular degree of importance to the support or resistance.
The graph shows how the price is looking for support or resistance.
Calculation of target prices for the support and resistance is a very simple task.
Square of Nine is such that the numbers are simple square root relationship to other numbers on the circle. Calculations of the root, you can put a starting point the opening day to see the geometric relationships. Just put a line of 0 °, so that she was on the study costs. For example, if the market was opening day at 1.33365.
Now we can quickly compute the other numbers that are squares (90 ° and 270 °), triads (120 ° and 240 °), polukvadratami (45 °, 315 °), sextile (60 ° and 330 °), etc. These "pressure points" can be mathematically calculated using simple addition or subtraction from the square root of price. Calculate what the geometric relationships are as square root of the increment, we simply divide the number by 180, as will be discussed further. The numbers of such calculations are more important as levels of support or resistance.
45 ° = 45/180 = 0,25 225 ° = 225/180 = 1,25
60 ° = 60/180 = 0,333 240 ° = 240/180 = 1,333
90 ° = 90/180 = 0,5 270 ° = 270/180 = 1,50
120 ° = 120/180 = 0,666 300 ° = 300/180 = 1,666
135 ° = 135/180 = 0,75 315 ° = 315/180 = 1,75
180 ° = 180/180 = 1,0 360 ° = 360/180 = 2,0
Taking our example of 1.33365, we first would consider that price as the number 133365, when we move the comma on prices, making all the prices, or three-or four-five-digit integers. We simply calculate the square root of 133,365, and add the increment, above, to this number and squaring.
We have to determine the levels of resistance. The same calculation would be correct if we would have had him with bringing up a third sign, because is calculated by the square of the Nine.
Thus is the price or circular degree of importance to the support or resistance.
The graph shows how the price is looking for support or resistance.
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Gann Levels.mq4
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Sentix indicator of investor confidence for the euro zone rose sharply in April
Sentix indicator of investor confidence for the euro zone amounted to 2.5 points for April compared with -7.5 points a month earlier. The value index has surpassed expectations of analysts had forecast the index improved to -5.9%.
Assessment of current conditions index for the period amounted to -7.00 -18.75 item against the item in the previous month. Waiting indicator Sentix rose from 4.5 points to 12.5 points.
PMI index for the UK construction sector has exceeded 50 points
Business activity and optimism in the UK construction sector have improved dramatically in March, that probably would support a recovering economy.
Index PMI, reflects the dynamics of business and economic conditions in the construction sector amounted to 53.1 points in March against 48.5 points in the previous month and the forecast 48,7 points.
Index PMI, reflects the dynamics of business and economic conditions in the construction sector amounted to 53.1 points in March against 48.5 points in the previous month and the forecast 48,7 points.
Note that the indicator exceeded 50 points, pointing to the growth of business activity in the construction sector. The value index below 50 points reflects a slowdown.
Monday, April 5, 2010
ScanWave v.0.2 MT4 Indicator
ScanWave v.0.2
- Wave counting on the chart in MT4
- ShowChannel - output channels on schedule
- ShowTargetWaveLines - Output targets on schedule
- SaveAnalysisOnExit - Saving the markings on the chart
Analysis of waves in accordance with the rules Elwave.
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ScanWave v.0.2 .rar
DEMARK MT4 Indicator
It is useful to those who use to trade through TD Demark. Build TD points, conducts TD line, calculates the current value of the TD lines, calculates the target.
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DEMARK.mq4
Deflation on the prowl as Bernanke shuts down his printing press
U.S. Federal Reserve has finished purchase of mortgage securities, debt agencies and the Treasury at 1.7 trillion dollars (1.1 billion pounds) that was a ruse "credit easing, allowed Bernarke, Ben (Ben Bernanke) create an incentive equal to 12% of GDP.
As noted by Beijing with a certain share of doubts created by the Federal Reserve money supply was more or less proportionate to the credit needs of Washington last year.
We will never know how correct it was to become nuclear powers. In my opinion, and I'm afraid it does not coincide with the opinion of readers, Ben and the British Bernarke Mervin King (Mervyn King) saved us from potential disaster. We were too close to the critical point, described by Irving Fisher (Irving Fisher) in "Causes of debt deflation during the Great Depression» (Debt Deflation Causes of Great Depressions), then there is a time when the ship draws up water and turns instead adjust to the natural rate.
The work of professor from Berkeley Ichgrina Barry (Barry Eichengreen) states that the rate of collapse of global trade, industry and capital markets within six months after the crisis, Lehman was even faster than in the early 1930's. How quickly we forget and how easily seduced by 76% Fund Rally, thinking that this is a storm in a teacup. Now, however, expect retribution through taxes.
1.7 trillion dollars, created out of nothing, disappear, as the bonds sold on the open market. Hopefully, not so fast. Easy money to soften the blow from reduced spending. Even talk about the end of quantitative easing - the desire to tighten. And although the U.S. economy is again creating jobs (+114.000 in March), the rejection of registration of temporary employment has led to false signals in 2002 and 1982. The broader index U6 unemployment rose to 16.9%.
Bond lyncher asked who would assume the role of the Fed, to absorb the flow of debts incurred by the Washington, whether they are from the Treasury Obama or Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - the mortgage giants from death row.
The yield on ten-year Treasury securities soared by 30 basis points to 3.94% for two weeks. Alan Greenspan (Alan Greenspan) called this a "canary in the coalmine" for sovereign debt of the United States.
There is a surge in profitability, although core inflation (truncated mean personal consumption expenditure) fell like a stone, touching a record low of 1.04% in February. Money multiplier Fed is languishing at the level of 0.815, while continuing to deflate.
Basic fixed mortgage for 30 years rose to 5.08% from 4.71% in December. The housing market in the U.S. is too painful to move eto.Pprodazhi new homes fell four months in a row, dropping to a half-century minimum in February. The current number of unsold homes to sell 8.6 months without new construction. 24% of mortgage loans in negative difference between the cost of credit and debt.
Bernarke now takes the fateful decision to dislodge the support from the credit market, despite the fact that broad money M3 fell by an incredible 6% in September. If the M3 gives early warning of 6 to 12 months - is to be feared.
Bernarke does not take into account the M3, regarding such eccentricity monetarist "medieval witchcraft." Signs of the M3 is certainly not stable for many years. Perhaps this happens because of the movement of portfolios. But the rejection of the simple observation of it was the root of many problems in the past four years. If Bernarke attention, he would have seen the need for an explosion of the credit bubble before. It also would avoid the disastrous mistakes in the early summer of 2008. Hetzel, Robert (Robert Hetzel), chief economist at the Federal Reserve in Richmond, wrote about monetary policy during the recession of 2008-2009, the central banks themselves have triggered a crisis by refusing to quickly cut interest rates when the economy was collapsing from March to July 2008.
Remember this moment. Rates have fallen from 5.25% to 2%. Oil and copper prices were extremely high. "Inflyatsionisty" they shouted, accusing the Fed's laxity in the 1970's, some "high-flying birds from the Fed were to agree.
Fetzel said that the Fed "effectively tightened" policy in June 2008 with the help of tough statements, which resulted in the growth of futures by half a percentage point in September 2008. Obvious proof that the rate of monetary growth has long been falling, have been ignored.
The ECB went even further, raising interest rates in July, when the euro zone is already deeply immersed in a recession. We know what happened. Lehman, AIG, Fannie and Freddie - they collapsed in September. Wheels fall off the global financial system.
I fear that the Fed will repeat the mistake, in this case, reversing the quantitative easing too soon. The problem lies in the ideological doctrine Bernarke, namely "kreditizme.
Do not confess if Fed Chairman false religion? Was Milton Friedman (Milton Friedman) rights, arguing that the money supply is the most important role, not a loan facility?
From this profound doctrinal answer may depend, whether the Atlantic economy to exceed its critical velocity or slide towards recession again?
The Telegraph
BBH holds negative outlook for the euro / dollar
According to currency analysts Brown Brothers Harriman, the technical picture is still emerging negative for the European currency. A bullish cross of long-term moving averages on the charts euro / dollar shows a negative mood couples. Thus, the 20-week moving average dropped below the 100-week moving average and is already preparing for the intersection with the 200-week moving average. Given these indicators, as well as the fact that the couple continues to stay below resistance at 1.3555 area, where is the upper limit of the channel, the downtrend is still in force and sales strategy for growth remains could not be more timely. As a resistance strategy of the bank allocate 1.3555/90 region (top of the channel and a maximum of last week), the levels of 1.3820 (March maximum) and 1.3910 (200-week moving average). As part of the downward analysts expect the bank to reduce the euro / dollar to the recent lows of 1.3385/1.3265 with the prospect of execution of large feet, which can reduce the pair to the base of the channel at 1.2790. At the moment the euro / dollar is at around 1.3483.
Bank of New York Mellon: the yen will weaken
Subject revive the global economy continues to create a favorable background in the financial markets, however, while the incoming data signal that growth in economic activity in Japan remains stable, Managing Director Bank of New York Mellon Michael Woolfolk said that they also show to maintain sustained deflationary pressures, supporting the growth of negative sentiment on the yen. The latter, meanwhile, has another major reason for weakening: Woolfolk drew attention to the fact that the dynamics of the yen and the available data on capital flows point to the continued interest of Japanese investors for foreign assets. According to him, what could be seen in the last few days is probably the beginning of a long and intensive process of capital outflows from Japan and the yen is likely to be the weakest of the currencies of the G7 in this quarter. In BNYM believe that the dollar / yen is poised to reach levels near Y95/Y96, but it is believed that a more active growth (for Y100) in this quarter can be expected. According to Woolfolk, the preferred strategy now is to sell the yen against the U.S. dollar, while also interested in such pairs as AUD / JPY and CAD / JPY.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Friday, April 2, 2010
Number of jobs in the U.S. increased by 162 thousand
The U.S. economy has been created 162 thousand jobs in March. This is a record increase in the number of jobs over the past three years.
The number of jobs increased only the second time in the past two years. 48 thousand jobs created were accounted for U.S. Census Bureau (Census Bureau), engaged in the census. On the other company had 114 thousand new jobs.
Unemployment in the United States remained at 9.7%.
Published data almost in line with expectations of experts. Economists predicted that in March will create about 200 thousand new jobs.
The Ecstasy of Fiscal Policy
Say you're a political adviser. You are in West Hollywood, sit together with the party sponsors in a strip club in style sadomasochistic, and they pay their bills, and, of course, you think about what this great country. Sharply by a sense of gratitude, and you want them to repay. Would you like to avert a looming financial disaster in the country.
The problem, as you see it, is that unlike you, other Americans have grown in prosperity and carelessness. Two hundred years they have lived in danger. There have been booms and busts of economic cycles, devastating epidemics and natural disasters, which comes without warning. Such conditions were forced to be cautious. The thought of going up excessive debt, filled their moral horror.
However, in recent years, life has become safe. This undermined the fear of debt, private and public. In 1960, debt households in the country accounted for 55% of national income. By 2007 it had grown to 133%.
In 1960, the politician would be removed from office if he allowed the federal debt doubled in a decade. Nowadays, politicians soon be fired if they try to stop it.
These days, voters want low taxes, about 19% of GDP. And they want to spend a lot, about 25% of GDP by 2020. As a result, the federal debt, which was at around 41% of GDP two years ago, is projected to soar to 90% of GDP in 2020, according to the Congressional Budget Office. By that time, only interest payments will be $ 900 billion a year.
This whole mess, you repeat yourself, called democracy and moral decay. Should be a moral revival. Who will be able to cope better than you yourself? God sent you to Earth, to control the electorate for the benefit of the country.
First, you must change the social norm. The financial crisis had helped to convey to people the idea that too much debt - it's dangerous, but there will probably still need a crusade against the pollution of waste and smoking, to finally bring this idea into every home. Do you think of Warren Buffett (Warren Buffett) on television. Oprah (Oprah). Tom Hanks (Tom Hanks). Someone should remind the country that excessive debt is selfish.
Secondly, all associated with a deficit, you must convert. Teachers would say: "You're badly behaved. Eat your broccoli. Accept lower standards of living. "
Thank God, it is still a nation Billy Mace (Billy Mays). The message should read: "The U.S. may be richer and brighter!". Debt reduction should be associated with renewal and prosperity, and not with the pain and sacrifice.
This means that deficit reduction should be included in policies to achieve economic growth. Michael Gratz (Michael Graetz) from Columbia University proposes to replace the current tax code is a horrible 14% VAT, to reduce corporate tax rate, and introduce a fair tax on income from two limitations over 100.000 dollars. Many people have ideas about how to come to the welfare state. The answer they should be: can we afford to have a powerful system of social protection only if it would be more effective.
In this case, you will have to mobilize the political class. Now some people think that they have chosen officials are so "rotten", that is not only the elected commission can save us. Snob. Stories such commissions - a history of failures. Stuart Butler (Stuart M. Butler) of the Heritage Foundation and Henry Aaron (Henry J. Aaron) at the Brookings Institution argue that in a democracy is simply impossible to rewrite the terms of the social contract without the consent of society. Commission - is good, but they should participate in broader democratic processes.
The method by which this can be done is to release from the polarized structure of the committees. Invite a dozen selected senators and members of the White House, and collect them in the same room three times a week for six months.
Once they come up with a plan to reduce debt, send them to the presidential commission on the deficit, which providentially created Obama.
Obama was not recklessly brave on this issue, and fought against the powerful political pressures on a number of mechanisms that are gaping loopholes in order to achieve expenditure control, such as payments under the program of free medical care, and pensions out of current income. If he had the necessary support, he would have done everything correctly.
When the secret plan of the Congress will be held at the White House Commission on deficiency can present it as a result of independent politicians eksperitzy. This may give some political cover to legislators, and all the guys in editorials and analytical centers will go down in ecstasy. You will convince all that such actions make the government less intrusive. You will persuade business that it's easy. You'll convince liberals that the rich will bear the heaviest burden. Everyone will pay something, but all will see their benefits.
If you can do this, you will save the country. If not, it will be the fall of Rome, and you might as well can stay in a nightclub.
The New York Times
Toyota Asset Management about the prospects of Japanese economy
According to Masaru Hamasaki from Toyota Asset Management, yesterday's report Tunkan Bank of Japan shows the economic recovery in light of the increasing foreign demand. As an index of business conditions, which in March rose to -14 in the June report, this figure is likely to continue to grow. Masaru Hamasaki predicts that during fiscal year 2010 pair dollar / yen will trade in the region of 91.00, however, considers it possible slight weakening of the Japanese currency, which would be a positive factor in effect on the forecasts of revenues for oil exporters. In general, an analyst at Toyota Asset Management believes that a positive outlook on the economy will prevail, though in the beginning of the financial year, investors are likely to remain cautious. Given the lack of active sales of government bonds in order to take profit, investors are unlikely to seek to quickly increase its share ownership, thus giving Masaru Hamasaki considers it possible to increase yields on long-term bonds by about 1.5% by the end of April.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
PMI index for manufacturing areas of Britain exceeded forecasts for March
Index PMI, reflects the dynamics of business activity, economic conditions and prospects of the UK manufacturing sector amounted to 57.2 points in March against 56.5 points in February. The value index has surpassed expectations of analysts had forecast a slight increase to 56.8 points.
Recall that the indicator value above 50 points indicates growth of business activity in the industrial sphere, below the 50 - to slow down.
Also note that the PMI index takes into account the market, since it simultaneously reflects several aspects of economic development, including employment, prices and economic expectations. Positive data could help to strengthen the pound against other currencies.
PMI index for the industrial sphere eurozone rose for March, more than expected
Business activity in the euro zone manufacturing sector has improved significantly in March compared with the previous month. In the final data, PMI in the manufacturing sector (PMI manufacturing) for the reporting month was 56.6 points compared with the preliminary estimate of 56.3 points. Recall that in February index was at 54.2 points.
It is worth noting that the PMI index accurately reflects the economic conditions in the manufacturing sector, the overall economic situation and development prospects. The index shows steady growth since March 2009. The index value above 50 points indicates growth of business activity, below - to slow down.
Number of applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell to 439 thousand
The number of primary applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. declined for the week to March 27 at 6 thousand to 439 thousand
The average figure for the period in the past four weeks fell by 6.75 to 447.25 thousand thousand
The number of Americans continuing to receive unemployment benefits dropped for the week to March 20 at 6 thousand to 4.66 million.
Euro / Franc bravely stood up to historic lows
The euro / franc to a fresh historic lows near Shf1.4140 made SNB, which has long remained on the sidelines, to enter the market to curb the increasingly growing domestic currency. Dealers noted that the message that the central bank to intervene provoked panic liquidation of open short positions earlier, resulting in the euro / franc soared to Chf1.4409. To date, the couple has adjusted sharply lower and holding near Chf1.4320, but dealers note that while the above Chf1.44 were marked selling by some big names, they were not too large, and the current aggressive movement of the euro due to a significant reduced liquidity in the market.
Termination of the Fed buying MBS, along with increasing self-confidence
By the end of the program of the U.S. Federal Reserve worth 1.25 trillion dollars to buy mortgage securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, investors behave with surprising calm.
And just a few months earlier, many worried that without the continued intervention of the central bank, mortgage loans can be quite expensive and discourage potential buyers, driving the market for a new recession. Now, exit the Fed is seen no more than a minor episode. Such events may be a sign that the financial system again seeping confidence.
Of course, there are reasons for an optimistic point of view of investors, and the timing was just as much. First, many traditional buyers of these mortgage-backed bonds or left out of the game, or buy fewer bonds than allow their portfolio. According to Credit Suisse, they, along with index funds, now account for 18% of the market, down from 25% before the Fed came into the game.
However, most are not now a huge selection of alternatives for investments that would meet their strict criteria, which means it can fill the empty space left by the Fed. Banks with cash reserves after raising their level of capital is also attractive to potential buyers, said that the owner of JPMorgan, Jamie Dimon (Jamie Dimon) at a conference last month.
Bondholders are also hoping to catch the wind. According to Credit Suisse, Fannie and Freddie back in the hands of mortgage investors, 136 billion dollars between April and June, because the moment they purchase bad loans from mortgage pools underlying the existing bonds. This should ease the way the Fed. If we assume that investors get paid back in the market, those dollars would be enough to replace the central bank's recent purchase of three to four months.
Still, market observers are likely to think that the end of the program of the Federal Reserve will have some impact. Many expect the spreads of mortgage securities, or the risk premium increased only from 0.15 to 0.2 percentage points, which would be a slight deviation from about 1.5 percentage point narrowing of spreads since the peak of panic in November 2008. There is too much money waiting for the weakness of the market and that his attack when spreads rise more than stated.
This may be true. But here's the question: Should investors were so keen to mortgage securities, are precisely will not get them at a low price, even if prices fall below the expected level? Over the past 15 years, mortgage spreads, combined with the Treasury maturities, reached an average of 1.45 percentage points from the expected value without the help of the Fed. It is hardly in such a situation, the transaction will be possible.
Moreover, the Fed seems to be slowly changing its attitude to the conservation of purchased mortgage-backed securities. In public statements last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernarke and several colleagues, seemed to pay more than expected, attention to asset sales, as the method of the Central Bank to exit from the extraordinarily soft policy.
Nobody expects the Fed's emergency sale of its securities, it would be foolhardy, given the fragility of the housing market and a consistently high level of unemployment. However, since the Fed now owns about 25% of outstanding mortgage bonds, any talk about the actual sales have far greater concern than if the Fed simply stopped buying.
The risk of interest rates also looms large. As the economy grows, interest rates should also rise. This means that a smaller number of U.S. borrowers will repay their loans early and investors will keep bonds longer than expected, which will be a potential cause of discrepancy between the financing and timing of assets. Moreover, it can lead to a drop in bond prices, creating losses, at least on paper. Of course, investors can hedge the risks on interest rates, but it has never been an ideal insurance for mortgage securities.
And finally, frightened by the behavior of financial markets should give investors pause. Not only because of what happened with the yield on the last week, but also because of the ratio of interest rate swaps, the main instrument of the mortgage market to hedge against interest rates falling below the yield of Treasury securities, this accident could make the hedge less effective. Alarm calls are not yet apparent, but this is a timely reminder to investors that are relaxed due to the fact that the Fed comes out with the mortgage market that the more traditional risks are still not gone away.
Reuters, Mar 30
Sharp statements regarding China ignore the economic realities
Last week, Washington was again to discuss their concerns about China and its currency. At a time when there are many other important issues facing the US-China relations, many of us do not understand why the problem of currency worries Congress the most. Once every six months, this time on April 15 U.S. Treasury checks, whether China currency manipulator ", and it is not clear whether such a fuss even help someone else.
Indeed, from a macroeconomic point of view, the timing of this could not be more inappropriate. About four weeks ago, Obama introduced a plan to double exports over the next five years. Very ambitious, given the past weak dollar and rising domestic demand in many developing countries, including China, but the U.S. has a chance to achieve this goal. So why follow the path of retribution "eye for an eye" if the course of events and so can turn in the opposite direction?
There are three main problems which need to focus American policy: domestic demand in China, its trade relations with other countries, and exchange rates.
With all due respect to domestic demand in China, it is clear that he is now far too strong, and certainly not at that level, so that you can blame China that its influence on the world economy "is not great." Approximately thirteen years we have used our own GDP for China, the so-called index of Chinese activity Goldman Sachs. Currently, he is growing annually by 14 percent or more. In fact, and this is the trick, if Washington and the other would maintain silence, China's policy would become even more vigorously to contain inflationary pressures by, inter alia, the introduction of more flexible exchange rate.
Take a look at several indicators of data to local or global companies that do business in China, published data on consumption and investment, or, more importantly, the trade data, true. Talk to someone who is involved in any level of consumer business, whether it be Tesco, Walmart, or Louis Vuitton, as well as look at their records. Chinese consumption is probably true is growing by about 15%, which compares with 2-3% growth for the American consumer.
While the involvement of China in the rest of the world is saved, the worst in the current crisis is not a strong Chinese exports, but the strong imports. The forthcoming publication of reports on trade in just a few days before the report of the Treasury is likely to show a huge increase in imports, in absolute terms and relative to exports. A similar situation is observed not only in China but also in many other important countries with high levels of foreign trade. Indeed, quite surprisingly, that the trade turnover between Germany and China shows strong growth so that if the trend until the next spring, they will exceed the growth of trade with France. Last year, China announced that its balance of payments surplus amounted to 5.8% of GDP, significantly below the levels predicted by many people in Washington. In 2010, the surplus could be closer to 3% (by the way, the level below 4% is considered a "balance" in the Peterson Institute for International Economics).
Which brings me to exchange rates. I spent much of his career, working on models of exchange rates, and familiar with all the difficulties. We develop our own model for many years at Goldman Sachs, including the yuan. At the moment, and this is very strange, our model shows that the yuan is very close to its fair value. Model usually shows that the currency is undervalued by 20%, but in past five years the situation has changed. Of course, we are less confident in the accuracy of the model than the conventional monetary model, given the huge changes in the growth dynamics of the Chinese and the world at large.
This brings us to the irony of the question. Why American politicians have to click on the buttons of protectionism at the very moment when there is clear evidence that the opposite outcome of events will only benefit? In addition, all should be clear that linking the yuan to the dollar lost its meaning, which, incidentally, recently the president of the People's Bank of China.
By Jim Neal - Chief Economist, Goldman Sachs
RBC Capital Markets appreciated the prospects of Canadian currency
As noted by foreign exchange analyst RBC Capital Markets, by the beginning of the second quarter of the Canadian dollar has a leading position among the ten major currencies to rise by 3.7% against the U.S. dollar and almost 10% against the euro and British pound. Moreover, the Canadian dollar will likely still retain primacy view of the approaching date will the first interest rate increase by the Bank of Canada. Later this year, as growth expectations of the Fed raising interest rates and a corresponding strengthening of the U.S. dollar, the currency of Canada will lose its leadership position. However, the privileged position the Canadian dollar against the euro and the pound will continue.
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