Market News And Reports

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 28 , 2006

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 25 , 2006

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 24 , 2006

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 23 , 2006

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 22 , 2006

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 20 , 2006

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 18 , 2006

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 17 , 2006

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 14 , 2006

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 11 , 2006

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 10 , 2006

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 09 , 2006

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 08 , 2006

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 07 , 2006

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 04 , 2006

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 03 , 2006

Results

-100

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 02 , 2006

Orders

selling order cancelled

Resistances And Supports AUGUST 1 , 2006

Orders

Resistances And Supports JULY 31 , 2006

Score frome 1/7/2006 to 30/7/2006




- Results Tuesday, July 04, 2006 -150

- Results Monday, July 10, 2006 +35

- Results Wednesday, July 12, 2006 +220

- Results Monday, July 17, 2006 -50

- Results Wednesday, July 19, 2006 0

TOTAL +55

Resistances And Supports JULY 28 , 2006

Resistances And Supports JULY 27 , 2006

Resistances And Supports JULY 26 , 2006

Orders

Resistances And Supports JULY 25 , 2006

Orders

Resistances And Supports JULY 24 , 2006

Resistances And Supports JULY 21 , 2006

How to Read a Chart and Act Effectively
Table of Contents

•Introduction
• Recommendation
• Using your charts effectively
• What to look at first
• How to use the information gathered so far
• How to trade the information gathered so far
• Other chart ideas
• Limitations of charts
• Summary
Introduction
This is a guide that tells you, in simple understandable language,
how to choose the right charts, read them correctly, and act
effectively in the market from what you see on them. Probably
most of you have taken a course or studied the use of charts in the
past. This should add to that knowledge.
Recommendation
There are several good charting packages available free. Netdania
is what I use.
Using charts effectively
The default number of periods on these charts is 300. This is a
good starting point;
• Hourly chart that’s about 12 days of data.
•15 minute chart its 3 days of data.
• 5-minute chart it’s slightly more than 24 hours of data.
You can create multiple "tabs" or "layouts" so that it’s easy to
quickly switch between charts or sets of charts.
What to look at first
1. Glance at hourly chart to see the big picture. Note significant
support and resistance levels within 2% of today’s opening rate.
2. Study the 15 minute chart in great detail noting the following:
• Prevailing trend
• Current price in relation to the 60 period simple moving average.
• High and low since GMT 00:00
• Tops and bottoms during full 3 day time period.
How to use the information gathered so far
1. Determine the big picture (for intraday trading).
Glancing at the hourly chart will give you the big picture – up or
down. If it’s not clear immediately then you’re in a trading range.
Lets assume the trend is down.
2. Determine if the 15 minute chart confirms the downtrend
indicated by big picture:
Current price on 15-minute chart should be below 60 period
moving average and the moving average line should be sloping
down. If this is so then you have established the direction of the
prevailing trend to be down.
There are always two trends – a prevailing (major) trend and a
minor trend. The minor trend is a reversal of the main trend, which
lasts for a short period of time. Minor trends are clearly spotted on
5-minute charts.
3. Determine the current trend (major or minor) from the 5 minute
chart:
Current price on 5-minute chart is below 60 period moving average
and the moving average line is sloping downward – major trend.
Current price on 5-minute chart is above 60 period moving
average and the moving average line is sloping upward – minor
trend.
How to trade the information gathered so far
At this point you know the following:
Direction of the prevailing trend.
Whether we are currently trading in the direction of the prevailing
(major) trend or experiencing a minor trend (reaction to major
trend).
Possible trade scenarios:
1) Lets assume prevailing (major) trend is down and we are in a
minor up-trend. Strategy would be to sell when the current price on
5-minute chart falls below the 60 period moving average and the
60 period moving average line is sloping downward. Why?
Because the prevailing trend is reasserting itself and the next
move is likely to be down. Is there more we can do? Yes. Look for
further confirmation. For example, if the minor trend had stalled for
awhile and the lows of the past half hour or hour are very close to
the 5 minute moving average then selling just below the lows of
the past half hour is a better place to enter the market then just
below the moving average line.
2) Lets assume prevailing (major) trend is down and 5 -minute
chart confirms downtrend. Strategy would be to wait for a minor
(up trend) trend to appear and reverse before entering the market.
The reason for this is that the move is too “mature” at this point
and a correction is likely. Since you trade with tight stops you will
be stopped out on a reaction. Exception: If market trades through
today’s low and/ or low of past three days (these levels will be
apparent on the 15 minute chart) further quick downward price
action is likely and a short position would be correct.
3) A better strategy assuming prevailing trend down, 5-minute
chart down, and just above days lows is to BUY with a tight stop
below the day’s low. Your risk is limited and defined and the
technical condition (overdone?) is in your favor. Confirmation
would be if today’s low was a bit higher than yesterday’s low and
the price action indicated a very short-term trading range (1 minute
chart) just above today ’s low. The thinking here is that buyers are
not waiting for a break of today’s or yesterday’s low to buy
cheaper; they are concerned they may not see the level.
4) Generally speaking, the safest place to buy is after a sustained
significant decline when the bottoms are getting higher. Preferably
these bottoms will be hours apart. By the third or forth higher
bottom it is clear a bottom is in place and an up-move is coming.
As in the example above your risk is limited and defined – a low
lower than the last low.
5) The reverse is true in major up-trends.
Other chart ideas
• There are always two trends to consider – a major trend and a
minor trend. The minor trend is a reversal of the major trend, which
generally lasts for a short period of time.
• Buying above old tops and selling below old bottoms can be
excellent entry levels; assuming the move is not overly mature and
a nearby reaction unlikely.
• When a strong up move is occurring the market should make
both higher tops and higher bottoms. The reverse is true for down
moves- lower bottoms and lower tops.
• Reactions (minor reversals) are smaller when a strong move is
occurring. As the reactions begin to increase that is a clear
warning signal that the move is losing momentum. When the last
reaction exceeds the prior reaction you can assume the trend has
changed, at least temporarily.
• Higher bottoms always indicate strength, and an up move usually
starts from the third or fourth higher bottom. Reverse this rule in a
rising market; lower tops…
• You will always make the most money by following the major
trend although to say you will never trade against the trend means
that you will miss a lot of opportunities to make big profits. The rule
is: When you are trading against the trend wait until you have a
definite indication of a selling or buying point near the top or
bottom, where you can place a close stop loss order (risk small
amount of capital). The profit target can be a short-term gain to
nearby resistance or more.
• Consider the normal or average daily range, average price
change from open to high and average price change from open to
low, in determining your intra-day price targets.
• Do not overlook the fact that it requires time for a market to get
ready at the bottom before it advances and for selling pressure to
work it’s way through at top before a decline. Smaller loses and
sideways trading are a sign the trend may be waning in a
downtrend. Smaller gains and sideways trading in an up trend…
• Fourth time at bottom or top is crucial; next phase of move will
soon become clear… be ready.
• Oftentimes, when an important support or resistance level is
broken a quick move occurs followed by a reaction back to or
slightly above support or below resistance. This is a great
opportunity to play the break on the “rebound”. Your stop can be
super tight. For example, EURUSD important resistance 1.0840 is
broken and a quick move to 1.0860, followed by a decline to
1.0835. Buy with a 1.0820 stop. The move back down is natural
and takes nothing away from the importance of the breakout.
However, EURUSD should not decline significantly below the
breakout (breakout 1.0840; EURUSD should not go below 1.0825.
• After a prolonged up move when a top has been made there is
usually a trading range, followed by a sharp decline. After that, a
secondary reaction back near the old highs often occurs. This is
because the market gets ahead of itself and a short squeeze
occurs. Selling near the old top with a stop above the old top is the
safest place to sell.
• The third lower top is also a great place to sell.
• The same is true in reverse for down moves.
• Be careful not to buy near top or sell near bottom within trading
ranges. Wait for breakaway (huge profit potential) or play the
range.
• Whether the market is very active or in a trading range, all
indications are more accurate and trustworthier when the market is
actively trading.
Limitations of charts
Scheduled economic announcements that are complete surprises
render nearby short-term support and resistance levels
meaningless because the basis (all available information) has
changed significantly, requiring a price adjustment to reflect the
new information. Other support and resistance levels within the
normal daily trading range remain valid. For example, on Friday
the unemployment number missed the mark by roughly 120,000
jobs. That’s a huge disparity and rendered all nearby resistance
levels in the EURUSD meaningless. However, resistance level 200
points or more from the day’s opening were still meaningful
because they represented resistance to a big up move on a given
day.
Unscheduled or unexpected statements by government officials
may render all charts points on a short-term chart meaningless,
depending upon the severity of what was said or implied. For
example, when Treasury Secretary John Snow hinted that the U.S.
had abandoned its strong U.S. dollar policy.

Determining a Currencies Technical Condition

Determining a Currencies Technical Condition
The technical condition of a currency is an important yet often
overlooked component in forecasting future price movement. The
technical condition of the market cannot be directly determined by
looking at charts or other technical indicators.
To get a good feel for the technical condition of the market requires a
special skill to think outside the box; read between the lines; a little bit of
contrarian thinking helps too.
What a trader tries to do is figure out “where the market is”, which means
are the short-term players long or short or have no position. Further, what
have the longer term players done lately that would indicate their
technical position (on the whole do they need to buy or sell around
current levels or is their business around current levels already done (they
have no interest).
Admittedly, there is never proof whether your assessment of technical
condition is correct or incorrect; other then putting on a position and
making a lot of money.
Let me give you an example. On Monday September 29th, 2003 the
EURUSD rallied from 1.1420 to 1.1580 in about an hour. This was more
than the range the entire previous week. Was this move predictable?
Mabye.
The prior week the EURUSD made new highs above 1.15 a few times
indicating an expected USD sell off would materialize. Each time a new
high was reached a breakout to 1.16 or higher appeared imminent; and
each time there was a lot of buying and then a lot of selling when the
priced dropped back below 1.1500. The EURUSD never really went
down much either though; bottoming out repeatedly above 1.1420.
Early Monday morning in Europe the EURUSD fell sharply to slightly
below 1.1400. This was a major disappointed to market players.
Everyone was betting on USD weakness after the G7 meeting and there
was no follow through from the opening in Europe the prior Monday to
the opening in Europe today (following Monday). To make matters worse
the EURUSD traded below 1.1420; lower than it traded all last week.
Traders bailed out of long EURUSD, in addition to long GBPUSD and
AUDUSD positions. The market was now preparing for a test of still
lower levels (higher USD); U.S. stocks were up overnight and traders
were thinking a blowout to the downside for the EURUSD, GBPUSD,
and AUDUSD was in the cards for today.
Opinion on the EURUSD was pretty much one way – its going down
today. All of the longs covered in disgust and armed with their charts and
technical indicators everyone was selling EURUSD for the move down
today.
With day traders short and the longer-term players already sold out of
their long positions after the repeated failures above 115; the EURUSD
was in a technically strong position. Meaning when EURUSD started to
go up the only sellers was short sellers; there were no long positions left
in the market. EURUSD gapped higher and higher, meeting first
resistance at 1.1580.

Day Trading Fundamentals

Day Trading Fundamentals
Few Traders have caught on to perhaps the most profitable low risk
currency trading strategy in the world right now – trading the release of
reoccurring weekly and monthly economic indicators and also scheduled
news conferences and release of monthly minutes of meetings, interest
rate announcements and monthly bulletins.
I have been profitably trading news since the beginning of July and the
results have been phenomenal. Here is how it works.
I did the legwork and went back and documented the actual headline
number versus the consensus forecast for all U.S., Eurozone, British,
Canadian, and Australian scheduled economic releases, minutes of
meetings, interest rate announcements, and monthly bulletins, since the
beginning of the year.
When the actual is significantly different then the consensus forecast,
there is an initial 20 to 50 pip price gap, followed by an additional 50
points or more of directional move. The news itself seldom justifies the
extent of the move; what apparently happens is market perception shifts,
and both short term and long term traders are “going the same way”.
HOW TO STRUCTURE TRADES FOR MAXIMUM RETURN /
MINIMUM RISK
Practically all the FX broker electronic platforms guarantee fills at the
rate on stop loss orders. Thirty second prior to release time place a stop
loss order (orders) and adjust the entry level if necessary until release
time. There are two types of orders: 1) Targeted buy or sell. 2) Straddle.
Targeted buy or sell is used when you wish to enter the market if a
specific event occurs, such as the announcement of an unexpected change
in interest rates. A stop loss entry order is placed such that the order will
most likely only be triggered if rates or in fact changed.
For example, in July there was an outside chance Canadian rates would
be lowered. I entered stop loss buy USDCAD orders 15 and 25 points
above the current market just before the announcement. If rates are left
unchanged I cancel the orders immediately. Generally a small reaction
opposite my orders will occur as traders who were long USDCAD into
the announcement square up. Point is there is usually time to cancel
orders. In this case rates were lowered and USDCAD was 100 points
higher in seconds (I was long USDCAD 85 and 75 points below current
market).
A more recent example; release of minutes of U.K. policy committee
meeting on Wednesday October 22nd; if vote on holding rates steady was
close, market would buy GBPUSD and sell EURGBP. Turned out to be 4
and 4 and the head of the committee cast the deciding vote to hold rates
steady. When this news hit the wire GBPUSD took off. I was able to get
long GBPUSD at 1.6750 by having a stop loss in the FX brokers. Market
traded to 1.6790 in a heartbeat and proceeded to 1.6930 by days end.
Later in the day Canadian retail sales and leading economic indicators
were due out (GMT 12:30). Market was looking for weak numbers;
USDCAD was sitting 20 points off multi year low. The USD was getting
chopped up elsewhere, especially against GBP and EUR. I entered stop
loss orders 10 points below market price just prior to news release; my
thinking was if the numbers were pretty good the lows in USDCAD
would be taken out because the flipside – USD – was tanking. Numbers
were pretty good – USDCAD collapsed.
There are trades similar to this almost everyday in one of the major
currencies. When I am wrong, most times I can pull my order and lose
nothing. Sometimes the number is just slightly good enough or bad
enough to trigger my entry; in those cases (rare) I am stopped out for a
10-point loss – worse case basis.
With a risk/reward ratio of 10 to 1, it is easy to imagine the potential
here.
2) Straddle
When the USD is sitting on the fence and a sudden wind (news release)
will determine direction I enter orders on both sides of the market to enter
if a scheduled news release is a surprise – significantly different than
consensus forecast. There are many indicators that are notorious for
coming in far away from consensus forecast – monthly unemployment,
retail sales, and durable goods to name a few. Unemployment and retail
sales are important directional indicators; as such, when the consensus
forecast is way off a price adjustment in the USD occurs. What’s key is
that the price adjustment is usually a lot more than what would be
expected based upon the forecasting error. What’s even more ludicrous is
that the government agency releasing the news states on their website that
the forecast can be off. Retail Sales for example; the government
acknowledges it can be 1.5% over or under; they call it statistical error.
Doesn’t matter. Fact is there is usually a big move in the USD when these
numbers aren’t close to forecast – and that ’s about half the time.
The straddle trade risk is 24 points. For example if EURUSD is 1.17 80-
84; a sl sell at 1.1770 and sl buy at 1.1794 are entered. Once one side is
triggered, the stop loss is moved to 10 points and then breakeven as soon
as practical to do so. As a general rule once the position has 5 points
profit the stop is moved to 10 points from entry and then to breakeven
when a 15 point unrealized profit is reached.
WHAT CAN GO WRONG
1) Scheduled Economic release: Headline number good, revision
bad (and visa verse)
2) Minutes, Monthly Bulletins: Good stuff and then bad stuff;
similar to above.
BOTTOM LINE
The new frontier is on-line FX brokers; they honor stops at the price – at
a price – when your level is reached your done. For example a 1.1790
stop in EURUSD is done when market reached a low price of 1.1790-94.
This is where they get you. In addition they can mess around with the
spread and stop you out. For example, interbank may be at low of
1.1790-92; they jack in 1.1786-90 and stop everyone out to 1.1786. Not a
problem with news trades as market usually gaps anyway.
There are other ways to take advantage of news trades; such as repeatedly
refreshing the government website that reports the news starting 30
seconds before scheduled release. Sometimes the news hits a little
early… and I hit a few bids (haha).
Although the strategy does best with guaranteed stops, the results would
still be good without guaranteed stops. However, the risks would be
greater. Since I have never been a fan of risk I prefer to enter orders prior
to news release.

Orders

Resistances And Supports JULY 20 , 2006